Geeks -> Silicon Valley -> The Finance World

[zby]

Now we are at the Silicon Valley phase - all according to the plan.  I don't think it is over yet - it needs to be much slower than the geeks phase because it involves bigger money and bigger organizations - so there might be more peaks in this phase.  The Finance World phase is still far away.

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[N12]

Have we crossed the chasm yet?

[vokain]

Early Adopters-early majority?

[Bitcycle]

Have we crossed the chasm yet?

There's a case to be made for having crossed the chasm.  Bitcoin has gone through a phase when it could have faded away, and it didn't. 

I don't think we're anywhere near Early Majority, though.  Still a tiny fraction of people use btc at all, in any way whatsoever.

[BTC Books]

Have we crossed the chasm yet?

There's a case to be made for having crossed the chasm.  Bitcoin has gone through a phase when it could have faded away, and it didn't. 

I don't think we're anywhere near Early Majority, though.  Still a tiny fraction of people use btc at all, in any way whatsoever.

Yes - I agree we've crossed The Chasm.  I'm not sure by how much.

However:  a point...

Still a tiny fraction of people use btc at all, in any way whatsoever.

Also true.  BUT; only a tiny fraction of people actually use (or even own) gold, as well.

It's not how many use BTC; it's who.  And so going back to the original point, I think The Chasm is defined as whether or not those to the right or left of it have something to lose.

To the left are those who 'we' think of as Early Adopters:  people like Lazlo, knightmb, Hal Finney, or even Satoshi.  People who mined massive quantities of bitcoin, or bought it for well under a buck.  Any of them really don't have all that much to lose, in terms of their initial investment in time, equipment or money.  In the unlikely event that bitcoin should totally tank, they walk away sadder and wiser - but not really in much different financial shape than when they started.

Thinking about it, you might actually be able to place a BTC exchange value on The Chasm - and it would probably be one dollar.  In time, that would put it somewhere around April or May of 2011.

To the right of The Chasm are those who have invested serious money that is a major part of a hefty investment portfolio.  Their lives are inextricably tied up with their money, and a loss can be devastating.  It's a good thing to have these kinds of investors in bitcoinland:  they'll make their part of it work, or die trying.

Also, you might be able to make the point that the tail end of that chart's Early Adopters are those with serious wealth, who invest only a small part of it into bitcoin.  So perhaps the Winklevii sit there.  We won't know for awhile.

Just some not quite fully fleshed-out thoughts...

But yeah, I'm pretty sure we've crossed that chasm.

[Kazu]

I am pretty sure the time after the big crash when it went down to $2-$1 was "the chasm." It just kept on going down, and everybody had pretty much written it off as a fad. But it came back, way bigger and way stronger than ever.

[Hawker]

Early Adopters-early majority?

You are kidding right?  We are nowhere near early adopters yet.  Bitcoin is strictly at the innovator stage waiting for business to begin to try it. 

[Hawker]

Early Adopters-early majority?

You are kidding right?  We are nowhere near early adopters yet.  Bitcoin is strictly at the innovator stage waiting for business to begin to try it.  

That makes you a mega long-term bull

Someone worked out that if Cyprus moved to Bitcoin, then Bitcoin would go over $15000.  And Cyprus is a tiny island with a few hundred thousand people.  While Bitcoin is worth less than $1000, you can safely say we are a long way from being adopted by business.

And yes I am a bull - in 10 years those who have a few thousand Bitcoin will be like the Saudis were in the 1970s and the Russians are today.  There is no investment out there with even a fraction of Bitcoin's potential upside.

[Zaih]

Looking good Bitcoin. Keep flying

[BitcoinAshley]

I'd say the 'chasm' was the period following the June '11 crash, when it appeared that all hope was lost, and Wired declared bitcoin "dead."



Thousands of businesses accept bitcoin, we're getting constant press and VC attention; it's not a stretch to say that we're choo-chooing the fuck through the post-chasm early adopter part of the curve.

[N12]

Early Adopters-early majority?

You are kidding right?  We are nowhere near early adopters yet.  Bitcoin is strictly at the innovator stage waiting for business to begin to try it.  

Yep. Somewhere one third to half of innovator stage, maybe earlier. By the time Bitcoin is in the middle of "early majority" stage, year 2020 give or take a few, one BTC will worth high 6 to low 7 digits in today's USD.

Made the realization as well that we are still in "innovator" stage.

I'm interested though, do you think Bitcoin's network effect/brand awareness is at a point where it cannot be toppled by xyz scamcoin/cripple?

[Melbustus]

Yep. Somewhere one third to half of innovator stage, maybe earlier. By the time Bitcoin is in the middle of "early majority" stage, year 2020 give or take a few, one BTC will worth high 6 to low 7 digits in today's USD.

I consider myself a strong long-term bull...until I read the 6 or 7 figure predictions. I recall calculating that if *all* of gold's private-investment demand (which is 16% of total gold) went to bitcoin, that'd yield ~$50,000/btc. You only get to 6+ figures if you think btc can replace M0,M1 of major nation states, which implies one of two things:
1) Nations demanding tax payment in bitcoin.
2) Nation states as we currently know them ceasing to exist.

[wachtwoord]

Yep. Somewhere one third to half of innovator stage, maybe earlier. By the time Bitcoin is in the middle of "early majority" stage, year 2020 give or take a few, one BTC will worth high 6 to low 7 digits in today's USD.

I consider myself a strong long-term bull...until I read the 6 or 7 figure predictions. I recall calculating that if *all* of gold's private-investment demand (which is 16% of total gold) went to bitcoin, that'd yield ~$50,000/btc. You only get to 6+ figures if you think btc can replace M0,M1 of major nation states, which implies one of two things:
1) Nations demanding tax payment in bitcoin.
2) Nation states as we currently know them ceasing to exist.

Please let it be 2. Please.

[smoothie]

You only get to 6+ figures if you think btc can replace M0,M1 of major nation states, which implies one of two things:
1) Nations demanding tax payment in bitcoin.
2) Nation states as we currently know them ceasing to exist.

I think that mid 6 digits can be had without either 1 or 2. Consider only amount of money stashed in all the offshore accounts. Bitcoin has good chances denting that market share significantly.

Also I would think that status of legal tender while helps a lot to promote unnatural fiat money (i.e. money with bad fundamental properties such as lack of scarcity) is not that crucial for good money like Bitcoin. Also legal tender might be not as effective for promoting fiat in presence of better alternatives.

For all I care I can always buy legal tender money as much as I need to pay taxes and I do not have to hold constantly depreciating by design assets a second longer than needed to make a payment to the taxman.

This ^

By the time any taxes are due on supposed capital gains I've made in the past year, Just pay it in converting bitcoins that likely rose at least 10 times the value of when you initially converted to get some capital gains.

Something I have been thinking about too.

[Hawker]

Early Adopters-early majority?

You are kidding right?  We are nowhere near early adopters yet.  Bitcoin is strictly at the innovator stage waiting for business to begin to try it.  

Yep. Somewhere one third to half of innovator stage, maybe earlier. By the time Bitcoin is in the middle of "early majority" stage, year 2020 give or take a few, one BTC will worth high 6 to low 7 digits in today's USD.

Made the realization as well that we are still in "innovator" stage.

I'm interested though, do you think Bitcoin's network effect/brand awareness is at a point where it cannot be toppled by xyz scamcoin/cripple?

Bitcoin is still the best in terms of design.  Satoshi designed it as a system where there is no trust.  The laws of maths are all it needs.  Ripple requires you to have faith in the company driving it.  Given how attached people get to currencies, that is a huge advantage to Bitcoin.

I know Ripple is intended to service Bitcoin as well as other currencies but its too complex and too big an act of faith for now in my opinion.

[Melbustus]

You only get to 6+ figures if you think btc can replace M0,M1 of major nation states, which implies one of two things:
1) Nations demanding tax payment in bitcoin.
2) Nation states as we currently know them ceasing to exist.

...Consider only amount of money stashed in all the offshore accounts. Bitcoin has good chances denting that market share significantly.
...

Good point. Agreed that bitcoin could replace a sizable chunk of this too.

[Luckybit]

Early Adopters-early majority?

You are kidding right?  We are nowhere near early adopters yet.  Bitcoin is strictly at the innovator stage waiting for business to begin to try it.  

Yep. Somewhere one third to half of innovator stage, maybe earlier. By the time Bitcoin is in the middle of "early majority" stage, year 2020 give or take a few, one BTC will worth high 6 to low 7 digits in today's USD.

Bitcoins will not be worth 7 figures. $70,000 is the most Bitcoin will be worth in the next 20 years. But even if that is the case, any of us will be better off owning a few of them.

[Luckybit]

Yep. Somewhere one third to half of innovator stage, maybe earlier. By the time Bitcoin is in the middle of "early majority" stage, year 2020 give or take a few, one BTC will worth high 6 to low 7 digits in today's USD.

I consider myself a strong long-term bull...until I read the 6 or 7 figure predictions. I recall calculating that if *all* of gold's private-investment demand (which is 16% of total gold) went to bitcoin, that'd yield ~$50,000/btc. You only get to 6+ figures if you think btc can replace M0,M1 of major nation states, which implies one of two things:
1) Nations demanding tax payment in bitcoin.
2) Nation states as we currently know them ceasing to exist.

And that is not going to happen. But even if its $50,000 a Bitcoin that is damn sweet. And that could happen in 2016.