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Author Topic: Is BTC 2014-2017 price trend a replay of November 2013?  (Read 742 times)
mammique
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September 04, 2017, 03:12:18 PM
 #1

Hello, I have noticed some strong pattern matching between November 2013 and the 2014-2017 period. Maybe some analysts have noticed it too, but as I'm no investor nor trader I may have missed it, so I take the liberty of sharing this with you just in case. I started to see the beginning of this trend about 2 years ago, as it seemed to confirm itself day after day, I took the risk of making a forecast back in January 2017, estimating a price peak between $5000~$4000. It appears to have followed the trend since this forecast, I could roughly figure out with no much surprise if the price would go up or down, knowing where we were at in the November 2013 period (I use global cryptocurrencies price charts, not BTC only, but it work as well), by recognizing the pattern with more or less contrast in waves' height. If this theory is correct, the 2017-09-02 price peak might be the highest price of the trend, it might test again this limit in 45~50 days, what do you think?

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September 04, 2017, 03:40:51 PM
 #2

Nice prediction in January, hope you cashed in! 

According to your model where is it going now?  Back to sub $1000?
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September 04, 2017, 03:57:12 PM
 #3

Hi mltbg, thank you, no I did not cash much because I'm more an observer than an investor, but I made a little extra :-)

If it follows the pattern it should go back around $1000, yes indeed.
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September 04, 2017, 04:01:47 PM
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Hi mltbg, thank you, no I did not cash much because I'm more an observer than an investor, but I made a little extra :-)

If it follows the pattern it should go back around $1000, yes indeed.

Thanks for reply!

What you say has much sense. The whales tested the pattern back then and was very successful, now just repeating it with higher stakes.

I had some good holdings, but sold most after it crossed the $2000 barrier, above that the price was not making any sense to me.

After double checking your scenario seems around $1500 is also possible as the new future bottom, i.e. roughly 30-35% off the peak value.
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September 04, 2017, 04:32:19 PM
 #5

It appears to be closer to $1000 that $1500, but it is very possible. There are several parameters in this trend, it can be simply stretched out and onionskinned, but I could also distinguish bigger waves that would morph the totality of the shape (As Above, So Below), and there is also pretty big contrast change in waves' heights, the ups and downs match in their chronology, but not necessarily their heights.
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September 04, 2017, 04:59:02 PM
 #6

It's very interesting and a great call in January!
Do you see any reason why the market should mirror what happened in 2013 but in slow motion?

I'll keep an eye out in 45 days, if we hit $5k for the first time, or are almost back to the ATH, then I will sell!

If the market falls back to $1000 or so, I hope that doesn't happen in slow motion too. A 5 year fall/stagnation could kill Bitcoin.


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September 04, 2017, 05:19:43 PM
 #7

What happens in the past can not be compare with current situation, regarding bitcoin price. In 2013, bitcoin price crash because MT-Goc got hacked, and there is no any exchange get hacked today.
Bitcoin price has reached another milestone, what happen right now is simply a correction due to ICO shakedown after PBOC ordered the cessation of all initial coin offerings in China and mandating that active ICOs must return funds to investors. I am not sure, how this news could has big impact to bitcoin and its price drop back to $4150 right now. I am sure, it is a good chance to buy more bitcoins and altcoins.



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September 04, 2017, 06:04:58 PM
 #8

Hello, I have noticed some strong pattern matching between November 2013 and the 2014-2017 period.

I really don't see any "pattern" at all that looks remotely the same let alone for the pattern to be "strong".
your picture comparing the two doesn't make any sense either. you are comparing a short period of couple of weeks with a period of nearly 5 months!

back in 2013 there was only one exchange with complete control over the market that pumped the price over the course of 1 month and led to the big and prolonged decline. and back then nobody knew about bitcoin apart from those who were mining it with their PC and those in silkroad and other dark markets.

now in 2017 the growth has been ridiculous. compared to 2013 nobody could ever even dream of a country adopting bitcoin and announcing it as a "legal way of payment" now Japan started it and couple of others followed. it was bound to increase the adoption and with it the price and a rise like this was inevitable.
and again in comparison it took about 9 months to get a smaller price rise than 2013.

TLDR
2013 rise was 500% in about 1 month
2017 rise was 308% in 9 months.

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September 04, 2017, 06:34:46 PM
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It will be much much worse than 2013.
Bigger crash, bigger losses, many many more victims!

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September 04, 2017, 09:11:18 PM
 #10

It's very interesting and a great call in January!
Do you see any reason why the market should mirror what happened in 2013 but in slow motion?

Thank you. Well I had this intuition while studying Hermetism 2 years ago, especially the Principle of Correspondence, encapsulated in the term As Above, So Below that I mentioned before. It is an old Egyptian philosophy explaining that Nature works like fractals, the more you zoom in or out, the more you find the same thing. Like a galaxy is a center with things revolving around, zooming in you find stars that are a center with things revolving around, zooming in you find planets that are a center with satellites revolving around, down to an atom which is a center with particles revolving around (very small and fast). So when seeing a very small and fast pattern like the 2013 November trend I tried to see a bigger and a little slower pattern, here it was.

If the market falls back to $1000 or so, I hope that doesn't happen in slow motion too. A 5 year fall/stagnation could kill Bitcoin.

I guess too, cycles ends, this might be the last Bitcoin cycle, who knows. That's also why I looked more to the global cryptocurrencies chart than the Bitcoin chart itself. Bitcoin can disappear, but not all cryptos which will fill the void, so the trend may repeat again at a global altcoin scale.
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September 04, 2017, 09:14:45 PM
 #11

What happens in the past can not be compare with current situation, regarding bitcoin price. In 2013, bitcoin price crash because MT-Goc got hacked, and there is no any exchange get hacked today.
Bitcoin price has reached another milestone, what happen right now is simply a correction due to ICO shakedown after PBOC ordered the cessation of all initial coin offerings in China and mandating that active ICOs must return funds to investors. I am not sure, how this news could has big impact to bitcoin and its price drop back to $4150 right now. I am sure, it is a good chance to buy more bitcoins and altcoins.

Maybe, but that's not what I've observed so far, when I anticipated a trend based on this pattern analysis and an event came to disrupt it, the trend catches up later. You can see that there is a hole that I circled in red when SegWit happened, if you look at the same 2013 corresponding segment, you see that the unexpected SegWit hole heals by itself in order to catch up the trend where it was supposed to be. But I might be wrong.
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September 04, 2017, 09:19:17 PM
 #12

Hello, I have noticed some strong pattern matching between November 2013 and the 2014-2017 period.

I really don't see any "pattern" at all that looks remotely the same let alone for the pattern to be "strong".
your picture comparing the two doesn't make any sense either. you are comparing a short period of couple of weeks with a period of nearly 5 months!

back in 2013 there was only one exchange with complete control over the market that pumped the price over the course of 1 month and led to the big and prolonged decline. and back then nobody knew about bitcoin apart from those who were mining it with their PC and those in silkroad and other dark markets.

now in 2017 the growth has been ridiculous. compared to 2013 nobody could ever even dream of a country adopting bitcoin and announcing it as a "legal way of payment" now Japan started it and couple of others followed. it was bound to increase the adoption and with it the price and a rise like this was inevitable.
and again in comparison it took about 9 months to get a smaller price rise than 2013.

TLDR
2013 rise was 500% in about 1 month
2017 rise was 308% in 9 months.

Maybe, we'll see, I was just sharing my thoughts. Nevertheless I do see the pattern because I've followed it for a long time, and it turned out to be very effective in anticipating ups and downs. About the 2 weeks / 5 months period I've answered below what my intuition came from (Hermetism), this is an old and well known phenomenon, but not an exact science, I might be wrong.
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September 04, 2017, 09:41:51 PM
 #13

I think that the price is definitely in a bubble, however the extent of the bubble is not as bad as the 2013 bubble. The 2013 bubble was inflated much more quickly and ended quickly as well as soon as Mt Gox got hacked.

But now the markets look much more resilient. Even the Chinese government announcing that ICOs are banned only took down the price by $400-500, which is only around 10% of a loss. Not big at all in crypto terms.

I think though we are going to see more dumps and adjustments. It'll be gradual and not just like 2013 where it's a flash crash.



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September 04, 2017, 10:04:18 PM
 #14

The 2013 bubble went 10x in a month, this went 10x in 18 months. This isn't remotely comparable, did you put any more than 5 minutes thought into your analysis?
You also mentioned this could be the last hurrah, I think you are stone cold wrong on all of your observations.
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September 04, 2017, 10:26:49 PM
 #15

Nice prediction in January, hope you cashed in! 

According to your model where is it going now?  Back to sub $1000?
Is there a strong reason to the price to go back $1000? There is no enough evidence to prove its speculation, Bitcoin will be in the stable way right now. The down trend will not be so long and there will be the next recover for the price of the crypto coin.



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mammique
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September 04, 2017, 10:39:24 PM
 #16

The 2013 bubble went 10x in a month, this went 10x in 18 months. This isn't remotely comparable, did you put any more than 5 minutes thought into your analysis?
You also mentioned this could be the last hurrah, I think you are stone cold wrong on all of your observations.

I have no opinion on this, I just shared some observations that have revealed themselves to be consistent over the past 2 years, I'm not saying that it will continue to match. But if it does yes it will go down after a second peak in about 50 days.
mammique
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September 04, 2017, 10:45:01 PM
 #17

Nice prediction in January, hope you cashed in!  

According to your model where is it going now?  Back to sub $1000?
Is there a strong reason to the price to go back $1000? There is no enough evidence to prove its speculation, Bitcoin will be in the stable way right now. The down trend will not be so long and there will be the next recover for the price of the crypto coin.

There is no reasoning, just pattern observation, which can stop matching, which could be matching for totally random reasons, or which is a real symptom of a bigger trend cycle, then yes it might go down. $1000 sounds very low to me too, but that's what I see by overlapping the curves. But I have no idea :-)
chesthing
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September 04, 2017, 11:38:45 PM
 #18

Fwit I hope you are right on your bear market prediction but I think you are wrong. I know you are wrong on thinking this could be the last hurrah.
This isn't some fresh idea to improve the existing, it's a f'g revolution.

Viva la revolucion
To start a revolution and begin to fight against an establishment.
*Raise your fist and shout "Viva La Revolucion!" to get the people on your side*

Occupy Wallstreet was a reaction to the exact same thing that started bitcoin. Billionaires and banksters sat and watched the protesters on CNN with laughter, bitcoin is action to that angst.
Wind_FURY
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September 05, 2017, 07:42:41 AM
 #19

That is interesting, OP. But we know that past results does not equal future outcomes. Many people make this mistake of basing their trading decisions on the past with limited success. If it was really that easy then many of us would be rich in trading by following a simple precept.

Do I think Bitcoin's "big crash" will occur? Yes of course. But it cannot be predicted.

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Mister1k
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September 05, 2017, 09:09:46 AM
 #20

That is interesting, OP. But we know that past results does not equal future outcomes. Many people make this mistake of basing their trading decisions on the past with limited success. If it was really that easy then many of us would be rich in trading by following a simple precept.

Do I think Bitcoin's "big crash" will occur? Yes of course. But it cannot be predicted.

That will never happen in the price chart for sure because this price bubble is being active and increase continuously to next peak value with the proper adoption happened and blocks increased due to segwit separation. As you said we should sell or trade for different altcoins will be result in wasting our hard earned money.


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