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Author Topic: Is Bitcoin now crushing the Alt-Coins?  (Read 4954 times)
solex
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May 24, 2013, 11:20:22 PM
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Since the Bitcoin fx rate has stabilized after the huge run up this year two interesting situations have arisen.

There have been many new Alt-coins released: ChinaCoin, WorldCoin, YetAnotherCoin etc etc.
A new coin is always accompanied by a flurry of interest (especially from newbies who are looking to get in at the ground floor on a new Bitcoin-clone) but soon after interest wanes. The number of new coins is now frustrating even the alt-coin enthusiasts. It is painfully apparent that unless coins are going to be widely accepted by merchant websites, then they are doomed.

Already their value after initial listing are all in steady decline:
https://bter.com/trade/ftc_btc
Even LTC has gone off the boil.

Chinacoin is almost dead in the water considering its blocks should be 60 seconds apart:
http://cnc.cryptocoinexplorer.com/chain/CHNCoin?count=20
Clearly the Chinese are not dumb enough to be fooled by just a name and an 88 coin block reward.

Is the market deciding that one cryptocurrency is enough and the identity of that one was apparent all the time?

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May 24, 2013, 11:29:53 PM
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I think that is the case, untill a coin is found that is significantly better than bitcoin, not just another copycat.
A coin that can do something fundamental, that bitcoin cant.

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May 24, 2013, 11:32:55 PM
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Since the Bitcoin fx rate has stabilized after the huge run up this year two interesting situations have arisen.

There have been many new Alt-coins released: ChinaCoin, WorldCoin, YetAnotherCoin etc etc.
A new coin is always accompanied by a flurry of interest (especially from newbies who are looking to get in at the ground floor on a new Bitcoin-clone) but soon after interest wanes. The number of new coins is now frustrating even the alt-coin enthusiasts. It is painfully apparent that unless coins are going to be widely accepted by merchant websites, then they are doomed.

Already their value after initial listing are all in steady decline:
https://bter.com/trade/ftc_btc
Even LTC has gone off the boil.

Chinacoin is almost dead in the water considering its blocks should be 60 seconds apart:
http://cnc.cryptocoinexplorer.com/chain/CHNCoin?count=20
Clearly the Chinese are not dumb enough to be fooled by just a name and an 88 coin block reward.

Is the market deciding that one cryptocurrency is enough and the identity of that one was apparent all the time?

I think it's more that these coins were clones of litecoin created only to acquire more bitcoins and people finally figured that out. People are not falling for these pump and dumps anymore.

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May 25, 2013, 12:28:26 AM
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 I was surprised to see Litecoin picking up, during the April hype. I was also surprised to see some hardcore BTC pundits gloating about their LTC gains.

All in all I think every altcoin that comes out with the same reword structure (current step function) as BTC will fail.

The only altcoin I will invest in (mining) is something modeled entirely on Bitcoin, but with an altered rate of supply to reflect (a Logistic Function) to facilitate a normal distribution model, and have new coins mined on a Gaussian Curve (GaussCoin) to better correlate supply with growth, for added stability and greater and faster user adoption all the while not penalising the early (but late) adopters.   (I'd like to see a proof of stake reward for maintaining the block chain too)

Imagine if all the interest in Bitcoin over the last 3 months could accommodate miners and investors, the community would have grown substantially, but what actually happened is most thought: "oh no I missed the boat", they tried mining with little success, and it seems too expensive to buy so they don't get involved.   

So while the list of altcoins is growing there are no contesters for the place of silver in relation to gold.

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May 25, 2013, 12:34:09 AM
 #5

Is the market deciding that one cryptocurrency is enough and the identity of that one was apparent all the time?

No.  The market is saying shallow weak copies are worthless.  Gavin routinely references the "Bitcoin hard fork wish lists".  Ideas and concepts which are interested but will never be introduced into Bitcoin due to the implications of a hard fork and consensus.

There are lots of cool ideas and concepts that alt-coins could explore but simply taking Bitcoin source code (often missing critical bug fixes and improvements) changing a few variables and/or hashing algorithm and pretending you have something new doesn't mean you do.

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May 25, 2013, 12:44:13 AM
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Is the market deciding that one cryptocurrency is enough and the identity of that one was apparent all the time?

No.  The market is saying shallow weak copies are worthless.  Gavin routinely references the "Bitcoin hard fork wish lists".  Ideas and concepts which are interested but will never be introduced into Bitcoin due to the implications of a hard fork and consensus.

There are lots of cool ideas and concepts that alt-coins could explore but simply taking Bitcoin source code (often missing critical bug fixes and improvements) changing a few variables and/or hashing algorithm and pretending you have something new doesn't mean you do.

Fair enough. But we are 4.5 years on and, and apart from NameCoin's specific function, no one has introduced a coin with anything fundamentally new, or solving problems in the wish list which makes it an obvious improvement. All the "dev" teams do for the alt-coins is clone the latest Bitcoin changes, if they can be bothered to do anything at all. It does not look promising that a stunning new concept will arrive, unless that new concept is a system which builds upon Bitcoin itself like ZeroCoin, for example.

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May 25, 2013, 12:50:09 AM
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Which is why all altcoins are in some stage of fail.

Was just pointing out that there is no need for Bitcoin to be "the one coin to rule them all" but if all new coins bring is a different set of parameters or hashing algorithm, they don't produce any value.  Now price can temporarily deviate from value but only for so long.  If the value is 0 (or low) price will eventually end up there.  Nobody will pay $20 per ounce for dirt coins just because they are different than Gold coins which are $1400 per ounce.
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May 25, 2013, 03:45:49 AM
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4 years ago we had one obscure nearly worthless cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. Today we have Bitcoin, Litecoin, Namecoin, XRP, and Zerocoin, all doing really interesting different things and all poised to change the world together. "Alt-coins" are not dead, but some of them are on the way out.

I included Litecoin on my list because I think having a Bitcoin clone using a different hashing algorithm is good. Miners can switch over their rigs to improve profitability and continue to support the cryptocurrency eco-system (at least for now).

Freicoin has a weird demurrage feature built-in. I watched the creator speak at the Bitcoin conference and he couldn't really answer the question: "Why would anyone want a Freicoin". He just said that if you happened to have some, you could spend them. Well whoop-dee-freakin' doo.

Will the price of a coin nobody wants that continually loses value pick up steam? Will any new Bitcoin clone ever pick up steam? I doubt it.
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May 25, 2013, 03:57:11 PM
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I think if the idea does seriously catch on (as it appears to be doing) then some of the alt-coins will do pretty well. Litecoin seems to be doing ok, and I like it's idea of being "sliver" to BTC's "gold". The artificial scarcity built into bitcoin is so low that at some point it WILL be the "gold" standard, even if it hasn't yet sorted itself out simply because there will be no more coins mined and the value, if it continues to be accepted, will become huge. That gives some room to the other players.

Someone in another thread noted that there was a need for a peer to peer gold exchange, and I think THAT is an idea very worth pursuing as well. Not sure how one would manage the repositories for it, though I have some ideas. But coupled with good encryption, such as that of Bitcoin, it could take off if the technical hurdles are solved.

As for the lesser coins, I think they're kind of fun, and a good place to make your mistakes whilst learning the ins and outs of this brave new monetary world. I doubt that most of them will survive, even though I have high hopes for a couple of them (for purely personal reasons, I like Feathercoin).

Bitcoin is NOT the first of this idea, it's just the first one to be successful. And that's a good start. I doubt it will be the last, but at the moment it is the one by which all others are judged.

As for Freicoin, the only way I'd mine that shit is for a quick turnaround. If I want money that constantly and consistently loses value, I'll stick with the USD. It's a proven long term loser. Why speculate on an upstart loser?

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May 25, 2013, 05:41:08 PM
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(for purely personal reasons, I like Feathercoin)



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May 25, 2013, 07:04:29 PM
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LOL! Only one bitcoin clone... kinda defeats the purpose of cloning, dunnit? ROFLMAO!

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May 26, 2013, 03:14:52 AM
 #12

First: Bitcoin was always crushing the altcoins. Tongue But I think despite the raft of pump-and-dump schemes, altcoins are a fertile ground for real experimentation in terms of algorithms, transaction secrecy, and economics (inflation, deflation...).

My hope is that some altcoin will actually reconcile P2P (and propagation delays) with the need for near-instant transactions. The current propagation model can be minimized but not fixed. Take block time down to the exact minimum time to propagate throughout the global network (Bitcoin's 10 minutes is too conservative, but is Mincoin's 1 minute too liberal?), and you're still talking minutes of delay; besides which, quick confirms means you need more confirms to achieve the same assurance.

An architectural delay of more than ~2 seconds ensures that large-scale retail adoption will depend on payment processors, who are willing to quickly front unconfirmed transactions in exchange for a fee. Congratulations, Visa keeps its middle man role and gets us to do some of its processing.

If power then (inevitably) becomes centralized in the most competitive payment processors, government can decide to go after those few juicy targets. Bam! Bitcoin's appeal to physical businesses collapses, except for the geeks who can afford to sit around for an hour to finish a transaction.

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May 26, 2013, 06:41:43 AM
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Freicoin has a weird demurrage feature built-in. I watched the creator speak at the Bitcoin conference and he couldn't really answer the question: "Why would anyone want a Freicoin". He just said that if you happened to have some, you could spend them. Well whoop-dee-freakin' doo.

Will the price of a coin nobody wants that continually loses value pick up steam? Will any new Bitcoin clone ever pick up steam? I doubt it.

Distributing coins for free on faucets will help a great deal to solve the 'who first' problem.  Also we expect low interest loans in FRC to be a major driver of wider demand once markets have enough depth, prior to that merchants should find FRC attractive because they will not need to give the deep discounts to customers that are soon going to become the norm in BTC.

FRC:  18mAGEto3xZzfKNJPwsDVA5c2Fk5Za3nbs  http://www.freicoin.org  IRC:  Freenode #freicoin
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May 26, 2013, 03:31:01 PM
 #14

I think that is the case, untill a coin is found that is significantly better than bitcoin, not just another copycat.
A coin that can do something fundamental, that bitcoin cant.
Pretty much this.
All the altcoins are just copies of BTC but the problem is that so many people are using BTC already that the value is significantly higher than the value of the other coins will probably ever be. BTC is bigger and is growing stronger.
I see no reason to invest in any other coin, unless it turns out Bitcoin had some flaws that make it unusuable.
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May 26, 2013, 04:59:42 PM
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Freicoin has a weird demurrage feature built-in. I watched the creator speak at the Bitcoin conference and he couldn't really answer the question: "Why would anyone want a Freicoin". He just said that if you happened to have some, you could spend them. Well whoop-dee-freakin' doo.

Will the price of a coin nobody wants that continually loses value pick up steam? Will any new Bitcoin clone ever pick up steam? I doubt it.

Distributing coins for free on faucets will help a great deal to solve the 'who first' problem.  Also we expect low interest loans in FRC to be a major driver of wider demand once markets have enough depth, prior to that merchants should find FRC attractive because they will not need to give the deep discounts to customers that are soon going to become the norm in BTC.

Thanks for explaining that. I see how FRC could be good for the economy in a world where Bitcoin was ubiquitous. Seems like we're a few moves away for FRC.
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May 27, 2013, 12:58:44 AM
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There are a few coins that have been working on the idea of controlling volatility (the reason bitcoins are fundamentally worthless to anyone but speculators) but have been buried by, guess what, speculative alt-coin clones that solve nothing.
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