Can we claim that BTC block size is larger than 1MB now?

[kotbi]

In BitMEX (a bitcoin futures market), there is a binary bet.  In the contract, it says
The contracts settle on a > 1MB block being mined and accepted by the majority on the main Bitcoin chain

My question is can we claim that the BTC block size is larger than 1MB now?  Because I look at the blockchain.info, I constantly see block size larger than 1MB being mined.

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[NorrisK]

The binary bet has nothing to do with the block size capacity being more than 1MB

It is simply betting on whether or not the nexst mined block will be over or under 1MB.

[kotbi]

The binary bet has nothing to do with the block size capacity being more than 1MB

It is simply betting on whether or not the nexst mined block will be over or under 1MB.

I don't think so. This is a futures' prediction. It only settle once. Its expiry date is Dec. 31.  It's not betting every next block.

[Iranus]

You can claim that the effective block size is larger than 1MB.  SegWit introduces new transactions which allow the witness data to be segregated from the rest of the transaction.

Legacy nodes see the block size as 1MB and new nodes see the block size as larger than 1MB.  But due to the segregation of witness data, more transactions can fit into a block and that makes the effective block size larger than 1MB even if some nodes don't see it that way.

[kotbi]

You can claim that the effective block size is larger than 1MB.  SegWit introduces new transactions which allow the witness data to be segregated from the rest of the transaction.

Legacy nodes see the block size as 1MB and new nodes see the block size as larger than 1MB.  But due to the segregation of witness data, more transactions can fit into a block and that makes the effective block size larger than 1MB even if some nodes don't see it that way.

You think the effective size is larger than 1MB, but the block size is still less than 1MB?  So I won't win the contract bet?

[Iranus]

You can claim that the effective block size is larger than 1MB.  SegWit introduces new transactions which allow the witness data to be segregated from the rest of the transaction.

Legacy nodes see the block size as 1MB and new nodes see the block size as larger than 1MB.  But due to the segregation of witness data, more transactions can fit into a block and that makes the effective block size larger than 1MB even if some nodes don't see it that way.

You think the effective size is larger than 1MB, but the block size is still less than 1MB?  So I won't win the contract bet?

Well whenever there are blocks mined that have a size of over 1MB (I'm not referring to SegWit here, just basic increases), they're on a separate chain.

Since they're relying on the subjective judgement of what the "main chain" is, I imagine that they're referring to a hard fork (new chain) garnering enough support to be regarded the "main chain".

So if I'm correct, you'll find out whether you win the bet around November when the New York Agreement's hard fork takes place.  You could link to where it shows the exact wording though.