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Author Topic: The Bear Case for Crypto  (Read 376 times)
TheQuin
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September 07, 2017, 11:15:26 AM
 #1

I know that nearly everyone here will disagree with this but I came across an interesting blogpost via forexlive.com yesterday.

It's a long read but worth it.

https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/09/01/the-bear-case-for-crypto/amp/

It raises lots of interesting points that while I don't necessarily agree with them all I certainly think they are worth thinking about. I'm especially talking about the possible impact of a regulation crack down. The history lesson of Denver penny stocks crackdown of the early eighties is a good insight as to what could happen, let's hope it doesn't.
 

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September 07, 2017, 03:01:33 PM
 #2

Well, we've seen what happened with the ICO ban in China. Sure the price has started to recover but it could be a peek at things to come. What if other countries tightened their grip on cryptocurrencies? It could all start with an ICO ban. Is still believe cryptos are the way to go but I agree that the current hikes would get corrected eventually.

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September 07, 2017, 04:05:01 PM
 #3

In some respects he's certainly right.  The things he says about ICOs are very much right - the current regulation of them is pathetic and most countries have no idea what to do about them.

Personally, I never invest in ICOs, but I certainly could.  I'm certainly not in a position where I could conveniently invest in proper venture capital, so what happens when governments start forcing ICOs to comply to the same standards as ordinary IPOs?  Considering that ICOs have to be at least created and ran by central entities, it would be extremely easy to do this and the larger their market becomes, the more likely it is.

As for BTC, I think it's a slow development and it will take a long while before BTC is relevant enough to justify its current high price. 

But I do think that there's a clear focus on crypto on the final goal of fungibility, and BTC is not so easy to regulate as raising capital is.

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September 07, 2017, 04:10:33 PM
 #4

A very interesting read. It will be interesting to see how the market unfolds in the coming years; I think it is inevitable that more stringent practices will come in to place regarding ICOs however I don't necessarily see this as a bad thing. Yes it will likely reduce the overall activity in the market but I believe it will greatly increase the probability of success for those coins which do manage to meet the stricter regulations.

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TheQuin
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September 07, 2017, 04:59:52 PM
 #5

In some respects he's certainly right.  The things he says about ICOs are very much right - the current regulation of them is pathetic and most countries have no idea what to do about them.

Personally, I never invest in ICOs, but I certainly could.  I'm certainly not in a position where I could conveniently invest in proper venture capital, so what happens when governments start forcing ICOs to comply to the same standards as ordinary IPOs?  Considering that ICOs have to be at least created and ran by central entities, it would be extremely easy to do this and the larger their market becomes, the more likely it is.

As for BTC, I think it's a slow development and it will take a long while before BTC is relevant enough to justify its current high price. 

But I do think that there's a clear focus on crypto on the final goal of fungibility, and BTC is not so easy to regulate as raising capital is.

I think even with regulation it would still be easier for small investors to get in ICOs than it is to participate in venture capital. The blockchain technology part would still be there and there would be no reason to increase minimum investment levels. Really the negative part is only the extra costs of running an ICO as it would then require large legal bills to perform an issue.

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September 07, 2017, 05:04:39 PM
 #6

Interesting article.  Thanks for sharing.

As for BTC, I think it's a slow development and it will take a long while before BTC is relevant enough to justify its current high price.  

I keep struggling to justify the current price of bitcoin as an actual currency/technology.  I think most of the current price is investor premium, which could evaporate very quickly, and probably will at some point.  In any case, while I don't think bitcoin is going anywhere, even in the long term, I don't think it's going to become any kind of default global currency.  I don't see any way of definitively determining what a bitcoin should be worth, which will prevent the price from ever stabilizing for long periods of time.  Without a more stable price, its use in commerce will remain limited.

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September 07, 2017, 05:23:39 PM
 #7

Interesting article.  Thanks for sharing.

As for BTC, I think it's a slow development and it will take a long while before BTC is relevant enough to justify its current high price.  

I keep struggling to justify the current price of bitcoin as an actual currency/technology.  I think most of the current price is investor premium, which could evaporate very quickly, and probably will at some point.  In any case, while I don't think bitcoin is going anywhere, even in the long term, I don't think it's going to become any kind of default global currency.  I don't see any way of definitively determining what a bitcoin should be worth, which will prevent the price from ever stabilizing for long periods of time.  Without a more stable price, its use in commerce will remain limited.


Thinking off on making it as a default currency is not really possible.I dont know why some people do think off on this way on which they do really believe that bitcoin would able to reach such state which i do see it has slim chances or doesnt have any chances at all. Bitcoin is really depending on its investors on which anytime could really perish if all would decide to leave it.


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September 07, 2017, 06:41:08 PM
 #8

Many people do make money investing in ICOs, the problem of course is there's always a risk involved. I guess those who earned also lost a few and they were OK with that.

Is there really a way to regulate these ICOs without outright banning them and/or making them unattractive? Seem to me it's the lack of regulation that allowed them to sprout up like mushrooms after a day of rain.


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September 08, 2017, 04:11:01 AM
 #9

I know that nearly everyone here will disagree with this but I came across an interesting blogpost via forexlive.com yesterday.

It's a long read but worth it.

https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/09/01/the-bear-case-for-crypto/amp/

It raises lots of interesting points that while I don't necessarily agree with them all I certainly think they are worth thinking about. I'm especially talking about the possible impact of a regulation crack down. The history lesson of Denver penny stocks crackdown of the early eighties is a good insight as to what could happen, let's hope it doesn't.
 

Spoken like a true BTC maximalist. I dont blame him. But what I hate about some who try to bring up the regulation argument against coin offerings is it seems like they want everyone to hold BTC and nothing else because its what they themselves are holding.

Hes a shill of a higher level.



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September 08, 2017, 04:19:55 AM
 #10

I know that nearly everyone here will disagree with this but I came across an interesting blogpost via forexlive.com yesterday.

It's a long read but worth it.

https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/09/01/the-bear-case-for-crypto/amp/

It raises lots of interesting points that while I don't necessarily agree with them all I certainly think they are worth thinking about. I'm especially talking about the possible impact of a regulation crack down. The history lesson of Denver penny stocks crackdown of the early eighties is a good insight as to what could happen, let's hope it doesn't.
 

Not everyone here is an enthusiastic permabull. im pro bitcoin, but the price increases of late dont seem organic, or sustainable. bitcoin is great, but we must admit many alts have functionality way beyond bitcoin. i dont see a general bear market (the graph is clearly uptrending, and always has been), it is obvious that eventually, it will retract. people WILL take profit. bitcoin is using its trust to survive and thrive; if we lose that trust, God help us. we will go into one of these retractions, like the gox slide, within a year. especially if the price keeps pumping like this. i am mixed on this. i want bitcoin to soar; but not too quickly.
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September 09, 2017, 08:47:23 AM
 #11

Not everyone here is an enthusiastic permabull. im pro bitcoin, but the price increases of late dont seem organic, or sustainable. bitcoin is great, but we must admit many alts have functionality way beyond bitcoin. i dont see a general bear market (the graph is clearly uptrending, and always has been), it is obvious that eventually, it will retract. people WILL take profit. bitcoin is using its trust to survive and thrive; if we lose that trust, God help us. we will go into one of these retractions, like the gox slide, within a year. especially if the price keeps pumping like this. i am mixed on this. i want bitcoin to soar; but not too quickly.

Agreed.  I think the rise in price has been too fast since we passed $1200 or so.  As with any financial instrument, healthy price growth is slow and steady with retracements and consolidation areas.  When price goes parabolic, you can be sure that you're entering overbought territory.  The question then becomes how far will it go before it corrects, and how will it work off its overbought state.  The latter can be accomplished through a lengthy period of small pullbacks and consolidation, but of course bitcoin's history indicates that a massive crash is more likely.
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