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Sjalq
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June 23, 2011, 09:25:20 PM
 #1

It's been almost 3 weeks since I co-invested in a mining rig and I'd like to thank everyone here for the help they offered. Thanks guys, it was awesome fun.

Since buying the rig (2x6990) difficulty has doubled and price is down by some 25%

So is it still worth it? IMHO definitely.

What we've seen in the price fluctuations is actually still relatively mild compared to what things could have been; imagine a single high power real world trader entering BTC in earnest. The short term fluctuations someone like that could create would dwarf even the recent exchange hackings. So I don't see the price as having come down so much as having simply osculated. I still believe BTC has a shot at replacing most of the fiat supply and that would imply a cost reasonable upwards of $15 Cheesy

Even though our mining is currently bringing in less than 2 BTC per day, if bitcoin succeeds even mildly we will look back at today's mining data and call them "the good old days" when difficulty was low and returns were (in retrospect and with the future price) incredible.

So I'm going to keep mining and holding. I still think it is going to be a profitable racket to get into for quite a few months.

Just my 2 mBTC

Cheesy mine mine mine mine mine mine mine Cheesy
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XX55XX
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June 23, 2011, 09:30:43 PM
 #2

The difficulty is set to increase soon. With my GTX 560 Ti, I am getting roughly 0.002 Bitcoins per block via the pool I mine in. I doubt it would be profitable for me any longer.

Weren't Bitcoins only $0.30 earlier this year? Rampant speculation isn't helping alleviate the volatility.

I will still hang on and mine, but... I strongly doubt I would even be able to recoup upon the electricity I have used for this endeavor.
Sjalq
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June 23, 2011, 09:39:46 PM
 #3

Assuming you mine with deepbit
Assuming deepbit is as 40% of total network capacity.
Assuming another 50 fold jump in price.

Your mining for this last segment of difficulty would be $1,200 or so?

Then assuming another 50 fold jump in price.

Your mining for this last segment of difficulty would be $60,000 or so?

I say get an ATI and keep mining.

Cheesy mine mine mine mine mine mine mine Cheesy
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XX55XX
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June 23, 2011, 09:52:46 PM
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It's all I have.
Sjalq
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June 23, 2011, 09:56:23 PM
 #5

Just a suggestion: Sell the nVidia, if you have the extra cash, use the proceeds and the extra to get as nice an ATI as you can and mine.

You already have a PC, might as well put it to work efficiently Smiley

Cheesy mine mine mine mine mine mine mine Cheesy
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XX55XX
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June 23, 2011, 10:04:49 PM
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Just a suggestion: Sell the nVidia, if you have the extra cash, use the proceeds and the extra to get as nice an ATI as you can and mine.

You already have a PC, might as well put it to work efficiently Smiley

I am ambivalent about the future of Bitcoin. There is a lot of rampant speculation and little indication that Bitcoins are a stable store of value. I am just doing this for fun, at the moment. I have preliminary plans to swap for a 6870, but I'm going to see how the HD 7xxx series mine first, when they come out later this year.

Plus, Nvidia cards have more stable drivers and are better at certain things. 
Sjalq
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June 23, 2011, 10:05:42 PM
 #7

All true, to each his own

Cheesy mine mine mine mine mine mine mine Cheesy
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talldude
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June 23, 2011, 10:24:21 PM
 #8

Assuming you mine with deepbit
Assuming deepbit is as 40% of total network capacity.
Assuming another 50 fold jump in price.

Your mining for this last segment of difficulty would be $1,200 or so?

Then assuming another 50 fold jump in price.

Your mining for this last segment of difficulty would be $60,000 or so?

I say get an ATI and keep mining.

Assuming even a 10 fold jump from current prices anywhere in the near future is highly speculative. But hell, if BTC really takes off, who knows what will happen.

I mine with my 5850 because I already had it and just came across bitcoin a week and a half ago. Might as well put it to use and get some money back out of it. As long as it's profitable, I'll keep mining (for the summer at least given current difficulty trend and my electric).
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June 23, 2011, 11:28:04 PM
 #9

Its fairly obvious to see where bitcoin is going.  Those that spent tens of thousands of dollars will be able to mine for the longest while remaining profitable.  The smaller you are the quicker you stop mining and sell off your hardware.  This summer will see a majority of people stop mining because its unprofitable.  Difficulty will not go down with these people leaving, to think that is a pipe dream.  Mining will be concentrated among those who spent the most.  The price of a bitcoin will rise and fall and will remain extremely volatile.  And this is with no catastrophic events occurring.  This is the optimists view of bitcoin.

I drink it up!
Capitan
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June 24, 2011, 02:26:46 AM
 #10

Its fairly obvious to see where bitcoin is going.  Those that spent tens of thousands of dollars will be able to mine for the longest while remaining profitable.  The smaller you are the quicker you stop mining and sell off your hardware.  This summer will see a majority of people stop mining because its unprofitable.  Difficulty will not go down with these people leaving, to think that is a pipe dream.  Mining will be concentrated among those who spent the most.  The price of a bitcoin will rise and fall and will remain extremely volatile.  And this is with no catastrophic events occurring.  This is the optimists view of bitcoin.

I understand what you are getting at, but I disagree. Just because you have a larger operation doesn't mean you will mine for longer. Given the equivalent hardware, once BTC earned from mining becomes equal to the electricity costs of mining, the guy with 10x more machines just loses 10x more money as the guy with 1x machine. The people who will last the longest are those with the lowest electricity costs. Efficiency of hardware will play a small factor (but not that large since there isn't a lot of variance in power efficiency). The bigger factor will the $/kwh paid for electricity. Basically one's geographic location will for the most part determine how long he/she can continue mining and still make a profit.

There will be a few people who get "free" electricity because they run their systems at work, in a dorm or whatever, but I think they will be outweighed by the tons of people who drop out of mining because their electricity costs make it unprofitable. Europeans I think will be the first to drop off, then big city dwellers in the US. Difficulty may dip for a while but it will eventually start growing again, at a slower rate, as some people jump back in, and those with cheaper electricity scale out with the new-found breathing room.


muyoso
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June 24, 2011, 02:35:57 AM
 #11

Its fairly obvious to see where bitcoin is going.  Those that spent tens of thousands of dollars will be able to mine for the longest while remaining profitable.  The smaller you are the quicker you stop mining and sell off your hardware.  This summer will see a majority of people stop mining because its unprofitable.  Difficulty will not go down with these people leaving, to think that is a pipe dream.  Mining will be concentrated among those who spent the most.  The price of a bitcoin will rise and fall and will remain extremely volatile.  And this is with no catastrophic events occurring.  This is the optimists view of bitcoin.

I understand what you are getting at, but I disagree. Just because you have a larger operation doesn't mean you will mine for longer. Given the equivalent hardware, once BTC earned from mining becomes equal to the electricity costs of mining, the guy with 10x more machines just loses 10x more money as the guy with 1x machine. The people who will last the longest are those with the lowest electricity costs. Efficiency of hardware will play a small factor (but not that large since there isn't a lot of variance in power efficiency). The bigger factor will the $/kwh paid for electricity. Basically one's geographic location will for the most part determine how long he/she can continue mining and still make a profit.

There will be a few people who get "free" electricity because they run their systems at work, in a dorm or whatever, but I think they will be outweighed by the tons of people who drop out of mining because their electricity costs make it unprofitable. Europeans I think will be the first to drop off, then big city dwellers in the US. Difficulty may dip for a while but it will eventually start growing again, at a slower rate, as some people jump back in, and those with cheaper electricity scale out with the new-found breathing room.


No, I am not talking down to the point where we are dealing with electricity costs.  No one is going to run their machines for a week to earn a single bitcoin, or at least smart people won't.  Running the computers full bore for a week to earn 15-20 USD is stupid, but it would easily pay for the electricity costs.  By mid july, my 655Mhash/s will be earning me about 1.5BTC a week.  Why would I keep them running for that?  At the same time, mid july, a guy with 10Ghash/s will still be earning 23.5 bitcoins a week.  He obviously will keep them running for 350-470 USD a week.  Its a matter of when it just becomes stupid to continue mining.  If the price of bitcoins rises considerably, then it will delay when it becomes stupid for me to quit mining, but it will also delay even longer the time that people with thousands and thousands invested will mine for.  They will always stay in the mining game longer than small fish like me because their payout will always me much more massive than me. 

I drink it up!
Sjalq
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June 24, 2011, 06:54:36 AM
 #12

Its fairly obvious to see where bitcoin is going.  Those that spent tens of thousands of dollars will be able to mine for the longest while remaining profitable.  The smaller you are the quicker you stop mining and sell off your hardware.  This summer will see a majority of people stop mining because its unprofitable.  Difficulty will not go down with these people leaving, to think that is a pipe dream.  Mining will be concentrated among those who spent the most.  The price of a bitcoin will rise and fall and will remain extremely volatile.  And this is with no catastrophic events occurring.  This is the optimists view of bitcoin.

I understand what you are getting at, but I disagree. Just because you have a larger operation doesn't mean you will mine for longer. Given the equivalent hardware, once BTC earned from mining becomes equal to the electricity costs of mining, the guy with 10x more machines just loses 10x more money as the guy with 1x machine. The people who will last the longest are those with the lowest electricity costs. Efficiency of hardware will play a small factor (but not that large since there isn't a lot of variance in power efficiency). The bigger factor will the $/kwh paid for electricity. Basically one's geographic location will for the most part determine how long he/she can continue mining and still make a profit.

There will be a few people who get "free" electricity because they run their systems at work, in a dorm or whatever, but I think they will be outweighed by the tons of people who drop out of mining because their electricity costs make it unprofitable. Europeans I think will be the first to drop off, then big city dwellers in the US. Difficulty may dip for a while but it will eventually start growing again, at a slower rate, as some people jump back in, and those with cheaper electricity scale out with the new-found breathing room.


No, I am not talking down to the point where we are dealing with electricity costs.  No one is going to run their machines for a week to earn a single bitcoin, or at least smart people won't.  Running the computers full bore for a week to earn 15-20 USD is stupid, but it would easily pay for the electricity costs.  By mid july, my 655Mhash/s will be earning me about 1.5BTC a week.  Why would I keep them running for that?  At the same time, mid july, a guy with 10Ghash/s will still be earning 23.5 bitcoins a week.  He obviously will keep them running for 350-470 USD a week.  Its a matter of when it just becomes stupid to continue mining.  If the price of bitcoins rises considerably, then it will delay when it becomes stupid for me to quit mining, but it will also delay even longer the time that people with thousands and thousands invested will mine for.  They will always stay in the mining game longer than small fish like me because their payout will always me much more massive than me. 

Price is up 50% so far this month, even with the fluctuations. 50% increases (with great volatility admitted) will making mining profitable a year from now even if you are only getting fractions of a BTC a week.

Cheesy mine mine mine mine mine mine mine Cheesy
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mmortal03
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June 24, 2011, 09:53:50 AM
 #13


No, I am not talking down to the point where we are dealing with electricity costs.  No one is going to run their machines for a week to earn a single bitcoin, or at least smart people won't.  Running the computers full bore for a week to earn 15-20 USD is stupid, but it would easily pay for the electricity costs.  By mid july, my 655Mhash/s will be earning me about 1.5BTC a week.  Why would I keep them running for that?  At the same time, mid july, a guy with 10Ghash/s will still be earning 23.5 bitcoins a week.  He obviously will keep them running for 350-470 USD a week.  Its a matter of when it just becomes stupid to continue mining.  If the price of bitcoins rises considerably, then it will delay when it becomes stupid for me to quit mining, but it will also delay even longer the time that people with thousands and thousands invested will mine for.  They will always stay in the mining game longer than small fish like me because their payout will always me much more massive than me. 

Free money is free money.  As long as you are still earning more than the cost of electricity, why not continue running it? Regardless of how relatively little you are making, you are still making more than nothing.  The only argument I can think of is that there's always a chance that a piece of your hardware will die when running it 24/7, so earning merely pocket change isn't worth that risk.
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June 24, 2011, 03:46:19 PM
 #14

Free money is free money.

There's your time worth.  It will get to a point where even making free money will not be worth it.  Even if you're in the black after all the electric costs, there are other things I would consider.  Is it worth the few bucks made to have to 'babysit' a machine?  Making sure everything is still up and running every day.  Is the noise worth it?  How about the heat?  It's those things that will stop people from mining and just being profitable is just one variable in that equation.

I know I would turn my main rig off earlier then the others.  A good quiet nite's sleep is worth more then a few bucks for some people.  Luckily I'm a heavy sleeper and can sleep through most anything.   Cheesy
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June 24, 2011, 03:48:28 PM
 #15

It's been almost 3 weeks since I co-invested in a mining rig and I'd like to thank everyone here for the help they offered. Thanks guys, it was awesome fun.

Since buying the rig (2x6990) difficulty has doubled and price is down by some 25%

So is it still worth it? IMHO definitely.

What we've seen in the price fluctuations is actually still relatively mild compared to what things could have been; imagine a single high power real world trader entering BTC in earnest. The short term fluctuations someone like that could create would dwarf even the recent exchange hackings. So I don't see the price as having come down so much as having simply osculated. I still believe BTC has a shot at replacing most of the fiat supply and that would imply a cost reasonable upwards of $15 Cheesy

Even though our mining is currently bringing in less than 2 BTC per day, if bitcoin succeeds even mildly we will look back at today's mining data and call them "the good old days" when difficulty was low and returns were (in retrospect and with the future price) incredible.

So I'm going to keep mining and holding. I still think it is going to be a profitable racket to get into for quite a few months.

Just my 2 mBTC


If that is the case then I have no clue why you didn't just buy instead of mine. You will never make as many btc as you would have been able to buy with the same amount of money. I guess in terms of dollar you may make more, but you will never make more btc this way. And you seem to be happy about your decision so I won't go any deeper, but it is funny though how even now, people just can't start to think in terms of btc and not the dollar.
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June 25, 2011, 03:30:46 AM
 #16

Free money is free money.

There's your time worth.  It will get to a point where even making free money will not be worth it.  Even if you're in the black after all the electric costs, there are other things I would consider.  Is it worth the few bucks made to have to 'babysit' a machine?  Making sure everything is still up and running every day.  Is the noise worth it?  How about the heat?  It's those things that will stop people from mining and just being profitable is just one variable in that equation.

I know I would turn my main rig off earlier then the others.  A good quiet nite's sleep is worth more then a few bucks for some people.  Luckily I'm a heavy sleeper and can sleep through most anything.   Cheesy

The white noise actually helps me sleep, and it'd be up to you how often you check it.  If your Internet, your power, or even just your failover pool goes down for a couple hours, no big deal at that point, anyway, as it's just free money.
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