China banned bitcoin: 2013 VS 2017. market maturity?

[pooya87]

this is not the first time that the news, um i mean the lie about China banning bitcoin comes out. because in fact China has never banned bitcoin!

on 5 December 2013 China prohibited their banks from investing in bitcoin, the FUD said China banned bitcoin and all the things you are seeing today.

the price took a dive about 33% in the first hour and in about 4 days bitcoin lost half its value (-50% drop) before it started recovering as the FUD cleared up.



in case above pic didn't show up: https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zig2-hourzczsg2013-12-04zeg2013-12-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zp

now in 2017 we have had the same thing. first the ICO thing which didn't even have anything to do with bitcoin, and then this new FUD about China banning bitcoin again!

this time however, bitcoin barely dropped 5% in the initial hours and the total drop was about 10%



in case above pic didn't show up: https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg5zig2-hourzczsg2017-09-07zeg2017-09-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zp

is the market getting more mature that the FUD is less effective now?

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[CryptoBry]

In other words, the market can easily be swayed by false news. Rumors can devastate any market for the time being but after things got cleared there is also a chance for Bitcoin to rise again...and it is happening right now. This is not however unique to Bitcoin as any market can be moved by unfounded news anytime especially if that rumor can be picked up by the media.

[audaciousbeing]

For the fact that price can be swayed by news of this nature despite the confidence that have been garnered over the years shows some level of weakness that has not been dealt with. But at the same time, bitcoin has approached some high level maturity to have only taken a retreat rather than a dip that would have been envisaged by those promoters of such news for their own selfish needs or interest. Either way, this cannot be said to be a repeat of the past because with this, there is hope that sooner or later, bitcoin will be immune to news such as this.

[alyssa85]

Volumes were much lower in 2013/14 so it was easier to move the market by just a few big sells.

Also, in early 2013, DDOSing exchanges was a thing to make the markets tank - lots of the bitcoiners at the time were nerds in their early 20's and had never traded anything and would sell in a panic.

Bitcoin still isn't mature enough - maturity is when rumours only make the price move by about 1%

[RoommateAgreement]

as time passes bitcoin market grows bigger and the weak hands become a less percentage of the market because they also gain experience from the dumb mistakes they have made before. so the effects of FUD becomes less and less.
this is interesting that FUD has been always a part of bitcoin from the early days

[BossBee]

Just like we shill or fud coins on this forum and twitter the big money have connections to politicians and journalist to do it on a grander scale. 

[exstasie]

is the market getting more mature that the FUD is less effective now?

I think, to some extent, yes. The lack of shock to the market is partly about becoming more resilient to FUD (demand is too strong for panic sellers to drive the price down too much).

Another aspect of this is that China is a much smaller part of the market now. Their trading volume today is a much smaller share of global volume than years ago, with the US and Japan increasing their shares considerably in the last year vs. China.

[Kanapka]

2013 was in the middle of Gox thing. Different circumstances

[Wind_FURY]

The people are also wiser now. Think about the times when they believed in all those bans manipulating them to sell their coins and lose money while doing it. No more. The people now buy the dips whenever there is bad news.

Is everyone now becoming permabulls? I believe so.

[Denker]

Bitcoin is much bigger than back in the days the china banning Bitcoin bs started.
However as we see it's still easy to move the market with some fake news.
But the trading vets who where newbies a few years ago learned a lot the last few years, and the big panic drops are not that easy to create any more.
So yes Bitcoin is maturing in that case, but it's market cap is still very very tiny and easy to play with for guys with deep pockets and connections to major news outlets.

[gentlemand]

It seems to have very easily slipped most minds that the Chinese exchanges were a one way casino for much of the early part of this year. The end of their zero fee bullshit is one of the drivers of the rise. They'd been batting down the price for so long that it was primed to go up.

I can't be arsed to attempt to interpret Chinese news any more. If they are gone then that's probably a good thing in the long run.

[Rahar02]

Volumes were much lower in 2013/14 so it was easier to move the market by just a few big sells.

Also, in early 2013, DDOSing exchanges was a thing to make the markets tank - lots of the bitcoiners at the time were nerds in their early 20's and had never traded anything and would sell in a panic.

Bitcoin still isn't mature enough - maturity is when rumours only make the price move by about 1%

Indeed, the first thing is this news just a FUD because China never ban bitcoin, or at least there is no any official statement about it.
People just speculate and take an advantage to get more cheaper coins, we know that .
There are 3 reasons why bitcoin still tanks and persist above $4000.;
- Like you said, bitcoin volume in circulation is bigger than in 2013, so it's not easy to influence so many holders to panic sell.
- People could access to the news, whether it's official or just misleading information.
- Bitcoin has been spread widely (relate to the volume), whenever dip occurs, there will be many people ready to buy it which mean someone who hold big portion of bitcoin can not easily manipulate the market.

[exstasie]

It seems to have very easily slipped most minds that the Chinese exchanges were a one way casino for much of the early part of this year. The end of their zero fee bullshit is one of the drivers of the rise. They'd been batting down the price for so long that it was primed to go up.

I can't be arsed to attempt to interpret Chinese news any more. If they are gone then that's probably a good thing in the long run.

Even if the reports were true, the exchanges won't be gone. They'll focus on crypto-to-crypto trading (Okcoin came out and said as much). Supposedly the emphasis is on fiat-crypto trading, but to be honest, I'm very skeptical that the report is true.

Between the audits early in the year and the quiet return to normal a few months later (with months of frozen BTC withdrawals in between), it just seems unlikely to me. Honestly, I suspect the PBOC planted the story to put a damper on investment and to reinforce the move against ICOs, with no intention of following through on it.

[gentlemand]

Even if the reports were true, the exchanges won't be gone. They'll focus on crypto-to-crypto trading (Okcoin came out and said as much). Supposedly the emphasis is on fiat-crypto trading, but to be honest, I'm very skeptical that the report is true.

Between the audits early in the year and the quiet return to normal a few months later (with months of frozen BTC withdrawals in between), it just seems unlikely to me. Honestly, I suspect the PBOC planted the story to put a damper on investment and to reinforce the move against ICOs, with no intention of following through on it.

I've read that BTCC were going to focus on facilitating OTC trades if is true. I assume that would be shut down too. Localbitcoins wouldn't be allowed to survive either.

Crypto to crypto is far more bonkers than CNY/crypto. If the Chinese are serious about 'saving' their population then alt only won't be a goer either.

Let's sit back and see.

[BitHodler]

China is less of an important factor nowadays, and that's something we should be happy with. For that reason I don't understand why people still take fud this seriously ~ it shows that this market hasn't actually matured.

Only at the point exchanges start announcing that these such regulations are being put to work, we can start to take this "news" seriously ~ till that time people should just calm down.

I am quite sure that after a month of not hearing anything regarding this China ban 'announcement', the market will keep moving on like nothing happened ~ at this point the potential hard fork in November is more of a concern.

[chessnut]

Ive heard it all before... china ban is harmless, nothing will happen. everyone thinks so. 

It is bs and its all going down 

[Yuuto]

Stability has been increasing, definitely.

Not unexpected really as there are a lot more legit users of bitcoin now. Bitcoin is much more than just a token that speculators hold to attempt to gain a profit or whatnot. People actually use it for buying stuff globally, and this brings stability.

Even though there was a panic dump it was much a much smaller drop. A lot of bitcoiners especially outside of China seem to think that they will hold BTC regardless of the outcome, as the ban does not affect them.

[snowdropfore]

the chinese is not the 2013 chinese ,and the bitcoin is no the 2013 bitcoin .the market is become biger and biger ,the whole world is including ,not just china . china ban bitcoin ,so what .

[exstasie]

Even if the reports were true, the exchanges won't be gone. They'll focus on crypto-to-crypto trading (Okcoin came out and said as much). Supposedly the emphasis is on fiat-crypto trading, but to be honest, I'm very skeptical that the report is true.

Between the audits early in the year and the quiet return to normal a few months later (with months of frozen BTC withdrawals in between), it just seems unlikely to me. Honestly, I suspect the PBOC planted the story to put a damper on investment and to reinforce the move against ICOs, with no intention of following through on it.

I've read that BTCC were going to focus on facilitating OTC trades if is true. I assume that would be shut down too. Localbitcoins wouldn't be allowed to survive either.

I'm not sure about BTCC, but Okcoin said they would become a "P2P platform for digital assets" if the report came to fruition. The report seems specifically aimed at interaction with fiat currency. It's clear that they aren't banning cryptocurrencies themselves; the question is how much they want to discourage average citizens from obtaining them.

Crypto to crypto is far more bonkers than CNY/crypto. If the Chinese are serious about 'saving' their population then alt only won't be a goer either.

Let's sit back and see.

The ICO ban could be construed as "saving" their population, just due to the sheer magnitude of the bubble. There were hundreds of ICOs within a matter of months, and the amount of investment blew previous Bitcoin/altcoin hype out of the water. But officials have hinted that even the ICO ban is just temporary.

The broader context: capital outflows outside of the country. They know they can't stop people from using crypto any more than they can stop people from using VPNs. But they can discourage mainstream participation by cutting off fiat markets and forcing them underground.

[BossBee]

If the Chinese really cared about the well fare of it's citizens, people in Beijing wouldn't have to wear respirators to breath the city air. If any Government cared about your financial health they would have mandatory fiance classes every year in public school, starting with basics savings and money management to the most intricate functioning's and terminology there are by the end of high school.