Bitcoin price is too high at 20$/BTC

[relative]

Saying it's "too high" will prevent you from making an underlying analysis.

what is the underlying analysis? (seriously)

admittedly, you can just as well draw another conclusion from the same numbers. you can agree with them, but still think that BTC will be even more successful than outlined here. then it isnt too high for you.

I was surprised what an extremely optimistic scenario 20$/BTC (mid-term) implies.

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[FlipPro]

go away, yes I'm trolling this pathetic thread.

go away

[relative]

go away, yes I'm trolling this pathetic thread.

you are trolled by this pathetic thread

[elggawf]

trolling

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

[FlipPro]

trolling

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

"In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory[citation needed], extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[2] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_%28Internet%29

I am trolling his thread by not allowing normal discussion. Everyone here knows what he's trying to do, and if the mods won't step in, then I sure as hell will. The price of bitcoin is highly devalued, everyone knows that, so no point in discussing an entire thread about how it's supposed to be lower. This is the lowest any of you are ever going to see it.

[bitcoinminer]

$20 *IS* too high... especially when they're only $16/BTC at TradeHill

Let's see... generating 2.5 million coins a year for 3 years... then 1.25 million coins a year after that.  Yeah, good math chief   And you posted sooooo many lines in that OP!

[relative]

I am trolling his thread by not allowing normal discussion. Everyone here knows what he's trying to do, and if the

what am I trying to do, tell me? manipulate prices while noone is trading? that makes sense  

I don't even have an account at an exchange. bitcoin intrigues me because of its technology and potential, so of course you think about "investing" (really, speculating on its success).

decided against it. here's (part of) the reason. if you're not interested, go away. if you have something to add, you're welcome.

Let's see... generating 2.5 million coins a year for 3 years...

for 1.5, until 2013

[bitcoinminer]

1.

2.6 million coins a year are mined until 2013, 1.3 million coins a year after that.
at 20$/BTC, that's equivalent to more than 50 million dollars in one year, or approx. 170 million dollars within 5 years, that have to flow into the system to sustain this price.

I can use quoting too

Make sure your next post is about your account getting hacked.

[relative]

I can use quoting too

that's great. here's a link for you http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/5/54/Total_bitcoins_over_time.png/740px-Total_bitcoins_over_time.png

Make sure your next post is about your account getting hacked.

dont have one though.

[magik]

the only troll in here is Vegetta

no one knows what the price will be in any amount of time, it may go to $1000/bitcoin it may go down to $1/bitcoin - no one can tell the future

[CurbsideProphet]

The OP has a very valid argument.  It's truly sad to see that any perceived negative comments towards BTC is immediately met with hostility (by some).  Maybe, just maybe, take an objective view and see that he might have a point.  $50 million a year.  Where is all this liquidity going to be injected from?  And where are all these funds going to trade?  On these exchanges with a $1,000 cap?  ROFL.

[Electrongolf]

Here's the way I see it. All it takes is one really great idea that that only works with Bitcoin to make Bitcoin explode. That idea may never come, but if it does, a $20 Bitcoin is going to look silly.

Bitcoin is a great idea already, but many people are far too comfortable with the way things work now. You have to ask yourself, "Why do I use Bitcoin and is that enough to push it mainstream?" I think Bitcoin is fantastic, for several reasons, but I don't know if the average internet user is going to feel the same way. .

I agree with this. Bitcoin does not have a "killer app". There needs to be something cool, that will bring people in from the mainstream. There needs to be a place where BTC is always valuable,, and you don't have to be a merchant to earn coins.

You guys have heard me say this before,, we need a game like Second Life, with it's own economy. Something that allows everyone to earn/sell something of value BTC.

A persistent economy will justify BTC,  not matter what the price.

[uniman]

I think we will find that a major, if not the predominate use of BTC, will be as a store of value.  You know, the _other_ function of money.  Using BTC for ordinary and "legal" trade has a blizzard of intractable problems with no obvious (to me) benefit.  How is BTC better than Paypal if you plan to obey the "law" ?

On the other hand I very much enjoy having a store of value, the safety of which is subject only to my responsibility.  Its security is not subject to .gov edict and it will not be taxed, seized, capital controlled, or otherwise molested.  Wherever I am in human space, there is my money as well.

Although I think it would be foolish to pour lots of "real" money into BTC right now, over the long haul, millions of people putting a few thousands of dollars (or more) into this would easily generate the influx of fiat required to pump up the price to amazing levels.  Once people have put "real" money into this, they're going to be reluctant to liquidate at a loss and this will provide a resistant floor to panic.  Notice how well the prices at Tradehill have stabilized, despite the Mt. Gox attack.  During a panic, I will merely sit and watch and wait for the storm to pass, instead of running for the exits.

All of the recent Mt Gox/hacker hooplah is merely evolution in action.  When the weak are slaughtered the survivors will be much harder to attack.  Trial by fire.

[edd]

How is BTC better than Paypal if you plan to obey the "law" ?

Paypal charges 2.9% + $0.30 USD for every payment received. Which means, if I want to donate a dollar to my favorite charity via Paypal, they only get $0.67. In essence, I'm donating $0.33 to Paypal!

BTC enables practical micropayments.

[MoonShadow]

I think we will find that a major, if not the predominate use of BTC, will be as a store of value.  You know, the _other_ function of money.  Using BTC for ordinary and "legal" trade has a blizzard of intractable problems with no obvious (to me) benefit.  How is BTC better than Paypal if you plan to obey the "law" ?

1)  Bitcoin transfers are cheaper.

2)  Bitcoin gift transfers do not require that both parties are registered with the same website.

3)  Bitcoin does not discriminate against users who live an certain countries.

4)  It's impossible to violate the terms of service or policies of Bitcoin.

5)  If you are from certain countries, using Bitcoin doesn't contribute to the tax base of your perceived (true or not) oppressor or occupier nation.

6)  Bitcoin transactions between two people can occur off of the Internet altogether, as there is no server necessary to actually perform the transaction.

7)  If you are the vendor, Bitcoin won't take back your sales revenue because someone says their account was hacked or because they claimed that you defrauded them; nor can Bitcoin reverse any transactions for any  reason without your consent.

  Bitcoin won't submit tax reporting on you if you exceed $600 in sales in a single year.

But you're right, there is no obvious benefit to using Bitcoin over Paypal for legitimate transactions, to you.

[imperi]

I think we will find that a major, if not the predominate use of BTC, will be as a store of value.  You know, the _other_ function of money.  Using BTC for ordinary and "legal" trade has a blizzard of intractable problems with no obvious (to me) benefit.  How is BTC better than Paypal if you plan to obey the "law" ?

1)  Bitcoin transfers are cheaper.

2)  Bitcoin gift transfers do not require that both parties are registered with the same website.

3)  Bitcoin does not discriminate against users who live an certain countries.

4)  It's impossible to violate the terms of service or policies of Bitcoin.

5)  If you are from certain countries, using Bitcoin doesn't contribute to the tax base of your perceived (true or not) oppressor or occupier nation.

6)  Bitcoin transactions between two people can occur off of the Internet altogether, as there is no server necessary to actually perform the transaction.

7)  If you are the vendor, Bitcoin won't take back your sales revenue because someone says their account was hacked or because they claimed that you defrauded them; nor can Bitcoin reverse any transactions for any  reason without your consent.

 Bitcoin won't submit tax reporting on you if you exceed $600 in sales in a single year.

But you're right, there is no obvious benefit to using Bitcoin over Paypal for legitimate transactions, to you.

I agree with all the above... but Bitcoins would be so much better if I didn't lose 1/5 of them at Mtgox.

[MoonShadow]

I think we will find that a major, if not the predominate use of BTC, will be as a store of value.  You know, the _other_ function of money.  Using BTC for ordinary and "legal" trade has a blizzard of intractable problems with no obvious (to me) benefit.  How is BTC better than Paypal if you plan to obey the "law" ?

1)  Bitcoin transfers are cheaper.

2)  Bitcoin gift transfers do not require that both parties are registered with the same website.

3)  Bitcoin does not discriminate against users who live an certain countries.

4)  It's impossible to violate the terms of service or policies of Bitcoin.

5)  If you are from certain countries, using Bitcoin doesn't contribute to the tax base of your perceived (true or not) oppressor or occupier nation.

6)  Bitcoin transactions between two people can occur off of the Internet altogether, as there is no server necessary to actually perform the transaction.

7)  If you are the vendor, Bitcoin won't take back your sales revenue because someone says their account was hacked or because they claimed that you defrauded them; nor can Bitcoin reverse any transactions for any  reason without your consent.

 Bitcoin won't submit tax reporting on you if you exceed $600 in sales in a single year.

But you're right, there is no obvious benefit to using Bitcoin over Paypal for legitimate transactions, to you.

I agree with all the above... but Bitcoins would be so much better if I didn't lose 1/5 of them at Mtgox.

All that I can say about that is take a hint from your great-grandmother and learn a bit more distrust of banking institutions.  I had a trade account at MtGox as well, but I have less than 5% of my bitcoins holdings even exposed to the Internet in total.  MtGox had less than 2%.  Yes, it sucks.  But never risk what you can't afford to lose, and there is no logical reason to keep a vast sum of coins at MtGox, or any other exchange, unless you intended to risk them in speculative plays.

And Paypal can be hacked as well.

[imperi]

I think we will find that a major, if not the predominate use of BTC, will be as a store of value.  You know, the _other_ function of money.  Using BTC for ordinary and "legal" trade has a blizzard of intractable problems with no obvious (to me) benefit.  How is BTC better than Paypal if you plan to obey the "law" ?

1)  Bitcoin transfers are cheaper.

2)  Bitcoin gift transfers do not require that both parties are registered with the same website.

3)  Bitcoin does not discriminate against users who live an certain countries.

4)  It's impossible to violate the terms of service or policies of Bitcoin.

5)  If you are from certain countries, using Bitcoin doesn't contribute to the tax base of your perceived (true or not) oppressor or occupier nation.

6)  Bitcoin transactions between two people can occur off of the Internet altogether, as there is no server necessary to actually perform the transaction.

7)  If you are the vendor, Bitcoin won't take back your sales revenue because someone says their account was hacked or because they claimed that you defrauded them; nor can Bitcoin reverse any transactions for any  reason without your consent.

 Bitcoin won't submit tax reporting on you if you exceed $600 in sales in a single year.

But you're right, there is no obvious benefit to using Bitcoin over Paypal for legitimate transactions, to you.

I agree with all the above... but Bitcoins would be so much better if I didn't lose 1/5 of them at Mtgox.

All that I can say about that is take a hint from your great-grandmother and learn a bit more distrust of banking institutions.  I had a trade account at MtGox as well, but I have less than 5% of my bitcoins holdings even exposed to the Internet in total.  MtGox had less than 2%.  Yes, it sucks.  But never risk what you can't afford to lose, and there is no logical reason to keep a vast sum of coins at MtGox, or any other exchange, unless you intended to risk them in speculative plays.

I bought a bunch, and was withdrawing the max each day. Didn't make it to the end. I definitely didn't plan on keeping them there.

[relative]

I think we will find that a major, if not the predominate use of BTC, will be as a store of value.

imho money can only function as a store of value if that function is a "side show" , i.e. the medium of exchange function is predominent.
people have to be _very_ convinced they can get out of their position. for example, they've been able to spend their dollars their entire lifes. and even given that, investors react rather panick-y if they suspect that might change (see recent shift towards real assets/commodities since 2008).

if you buy bitcoins now even though it isnt really a medium of exchange, I wouldn't call that storing value. it is speculation on bitcoin's success as a medium of exchange.

nothing wrong with that though, if you're convinced of its success. but it is comparable to investing in a startup company, not to storing money at a bank.

[Atom]

relative,
Aren't all of these things only a problem as long as you're concerned about convertability to USD?  From my pespective as a newbie to the currency and community, this is the very beginnings of a new marketplace being formed - Take a look at the auction sites, or classified sites and you'll find a suprisingly diverse variety of goods and services available.  Sure there are gaps, but every new convertee potentially adds to that pool, especially if they see it as a way to invest in a currency with good fundamentals while not having to put down an outright capital outlay (i.e. buying BTC for USD).

This is only the beginning, and I for one am very excited to watch and participate in what we're going to build together over the next few years.  Very exciting times!