Bitcoin price is too high at 20$/BTC

[error]

Bitcoin will probably continue to appreciate in value, and the exchanges will be very volatile, until a superior successor to bitcoin is introduced or the speculative bubble that props up 99% of bitcoin's value collapses.  I'd definitely buy them at 5-10 cents a coin, but I think that anything over 25 cents/coin is pure speculation, based upon their historical average price. 

Who wouldn't buy them at 5 or 10 cents each? I'm still pissed off that I was on vacation last Sunday when the whole mtgox affair happened.

That said, we are still in the very early days of Bitcoin. A year from now when a BTC costs $500, we'll all be dreaming of the days when we could have bought them for $20.

[MoonShadow]

Bitcoin will probably continue to appreciate in value, and the exchanges will be very volatile, until a superior successor to bitcoin is introduced or the speculative bubble that props up 99% of bitcoin's value collapses.  I'd definitely buy them at 5-10 cents a coin, but I think that anything over 25 cents/coin is pure speculation, based upon their historical average price. 

You're either going to change this position eventually or be bitcoin poor.

[AngelusWebDesign]

Seriously -- you can't go by the "historical average" because for most of that time, NOBODY knew about Bitcoin -- there was even less Bitcoin economy than there is today (if that's possible!) and much less demand.

I understand your point, there could be a lot of speculation built into the price. But 15 cents? Difficulty was pretty low back then -- if you wanted 20 BTC, you just fired up your old Pentium-133 from 1996, installed CPU miner, and ran it for a day!

Of course such a Bitcoin can't be worth much.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Here's the way I see it. All it takes is one really great idea that that only works with Bitcoin to make Bitcoin explode. That idea may never come, but if it does, a $20 Bitcoin is going to look silly.

Bitcoin is a great idea already, but many people are far too comfortable with the way things work now. You have to ask yourself, "Why do I use Bitcoin and is that enough to push it mainstream?" I think Bitcoin is fantastic, for several reasons, but I don't know if the average internet user is going to feel the same way. .

I agree with this. Bitcoin does not have a "killer app". There needs to be something cool, that will bring people in from the mainstream. There needs to be a place where BTC is always valuable,, and you don't have to be a merchant to earn coins.

You guys have heard me say this before,, we need a game like Second Life, with it's own economy. Something that allows everyone to earn/sell something of value BTC.

A persistent economy will justify BTC,  not matter what the price.

"You guys have heard me say this before,, we need a game like Second Life, with it's own economy. Something that allows everyone to earn/sell something of value BTC."

Bitville comes to mind.

Allow me to brainstorm for a sec. Start small like Farmville, but instead of farming, you're mining. Get paid exponentially for each level reached with each level harder to obtain but pays out more. Start off with the mining aspect where you have to mine a certain amount before you can buy virtual goods. Or, instead of being a miner, you can open up a virtual shop (paid for with REAL bitcoins) to sell your virtual stock. Whether you're a miner, shop owner, brother or casino operator. etc., the challenges are equal to advance to the next level.

Feel free to take my idea and run with it.

[MoonShadow]

Bitcoin does have a killer app, and it's one we all use.  The near zero costs of transfering value across limitless distances.  If you don't think that this is a revolutionary core feature, try sending 20 Euros to Kenya.

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Bitcoin does have a killer app, and it's one we all use.  The near zero costs of transfering value across limitless distances.  If you don't think that this is a revolutionary core feature, try sending 20 Euros to Kenya.

You forgot the word 'instantly'.

[mmortal03]

Bitcoin does have a killer app, and it's one we all use.  The near zero costs of transfering value across limitless distances.  If you don't think that this is a revolutionary core feature, try sending 20 Euros to Kenya.

That is great and all, but until a large amount of people on the street in Kenya or Azerbaijan or wherever are willing to accept those bitcoins, or make it easy to convert those bitcoins into the local currency, then it really doesn't matter.  That's the direction things need to go before this supposed "killer app" of zero transfer costs will actually matter to anyone in practice.

[CNMOH]

(that's of course only if miners sell all of their gains, but if miners keep some of their coins it only means they expect to sell it for even more in the future!)

Or maybe they, you know, want to spend their bitcoins.

[elggawf]

Bitcoin does have a killer app, and it's one we all use.  The near zero costs of transfering value across limitless distances.  If you don't think that this is a revolutionary core feature, try sending 20 Euros to Kenya.

It's not zero costs - doing so securely requires miners, which requires electricity and expensive hardware. Currently, those costs are subsidized by new Bitcoins entering the market, but it's idiotic to think that it's without cost.

Also, as others have said, you have to have a way to redeem that value at the end of the line, otherwise all you're doing is transferring Bitcoins across long distances.

[BTC Economist]

Bitcoin does have a killer app, and it's one we all use.  The near zero costs of transfering value across limitless distances.  If you don't think that this is a revolutionary core feature, try sending 20 Euros to Kenya.

This is all well and good, but why not just figure out a way to use the same platform for, you know, actual currency like the US dollar.  Bitcoin is a commodity with zero intrinsic value.

[TraderTimm]

This is all well and good, but why not just figure out a way to use the same platform for, you know, actual currency like the US dollar.  Bitcoin is a commodity with zero intrinsic value.

Your head is filled with electric impulses. I can't use those to light a flashlight, power a motor, or any other electrical device. I guess that means your brain has no intrinsic value.

Do you have any other purpose here other than trolling with your alleged 'Economist' title? If you hate bitcoin so much, why even bother spewing out your bile? Wouldn't your services be needed with that 'real' currency you keep rambling on about?

[BTC Economist]

This is all well and good, but why not just figure out a way to use the same platform for, you know, actual currency like the US dollar.  Bitcoin is a commodity with zero intrinsic value.

Your head is filled with electric impulses. I can't use those to light a flashlight, power a motor, or any other electrical device. I guess that means your brain has no intrinsic value.

Do you have any other purpose here other than trolling with your alleged 'Economist' title? If you hate bitcoin so much, why even bother spewing out your bile? Wouldn't your services be needed with that 'real' currency you keep rambling on about?

I do not hate Bitcoin and am invested in the commodity.  My brain is clearly not a commodity, by definition. 

[relative]

transferring money to kenya is a killer app for whom?
obama and his uncle?

killer app: jargon of marketing teams, has been used to refer to any computer program that is so necessary or desirable that it proves the core value of some larger technology

[Rassah]

transferring money to kenya is a killer app for whom?
obama and his uncle?

Considering Kenya only got international fiber connection a few years ago, and India's wages are increasing about 10% a year, Kenya is posed to be the new India within a few short years. So the killer app is for anyone who's planning to do some outsourcing or business in Kenya.

[jed]

relative: $50 million is only $100 from 500k users. 500k users isn't very much for something popular on the internet. And I suspect the average user wants to hold more than $100 worth of btc.

[Synaesthesia]

relative: $50 million is only $100 from 500k users. 500k users isn't very much for something popular on the internet. And I suspect the average user wants to hold more than $100 worth of btc.

This

[Nescio]

They don't need an exchange. Bitcoin could simply be used to facilitate a hawala transfer.

They do, since at some point they want to buy cars, boats, food etc. that the regular economy provides. Without an exchange these are not possible, unless as I stated, a legitimate economy already precedes it.

You do not need a centralized exchange for hawala, only a way to prove a payment has been agreed to.

I'm not sure what you mean to say. Either why use Bitcoin in the first place when you can just talk to eachother on the phone and make a gentlemen's agreement? Or, Alice gives 100 USD to Bob, Bob uses his network to tell Charlie to give 100 USD (or equivalent) to Donald for an IOU. If this involves Bitcoin for 'network', then Bob and Charlie will have to deal with an exchange, or be one themselves at some point.

Unless of course you are talking about a future where Bitcoin is so big you don't need local currencies, but my point is exactly that in order to get there you have to solve the above problem first.

IMHO this is possible, but not by pie in the sky valuations to attract speculators; rather by attracting merchants who use it for its currency characteristics.

[mmortal03]

transferring money to kenya is a killer app for whom?
obama and his uncle?

There are tons of people who would like to send money internationally for cheaper than they already do.

[Nescio]

Bitcoin has the advantage of having a public ledger that can be verified by anyone. To be sure, an exchange that produces a flattened market for Bitcoin has certain desirable traits, but it is by no means the only tool in the shed.

As far as I'm concerned the sooner you don't need an exchange at all the better, but I'm not saying that's going to happen soon, or is very realistic to begin with either.

There are other ways to value Bitcoin. As well there are many means by which hawala transfers can be facilitated.

Seems laborious to use Bitcoin as some kind of token, why not just use signed messages then? If the keys are in a web of trust that is just as good and a lot simpler, no problems with valuation/exchange, dependence on mining network (or any network really, as long as you have the other's public key) etc.

Even without the use of hawala brokers it effectively separates the means of deposit and withdrawal, an important feature for some people.

But this presupposes that both ends have the required liquidity. Which in turn would have to mean a symmetrical flow of Bitcoins, or going over exchanges. As soon as the latter is involved, valuation of BTC is going to play a part (and these agents may influence the price too).

[MoonShadow]

Bitcoin has the advantage of having a public ledger that can be verified by anyone. To be sure, an exchange that produces a flattened market for Bitcoin has certain desirable traits, but it is by no means the only tool in the shed.

As far as I'm concerned the sooner you don't need an exchange at all the better, but I'm not saying that's going to happen soon, or is very realistic to begin with either.

I don't need an exchange now.  I've never cashed out.  I've bought many physical and digital goods, but never cash.  I'm sure that day will come, but I'm not really willing to do so before Bitcoin is big enough that local people are asking for exchange.