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September 13, 2017, 02:42:02 PM
 #1

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.
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September 13, 2017, 02:48:01 PM
 #2

Well, I expect the price to be very unstable until we've had atleast 1 or 2 weeks without Chinese rumours.

After that I expect the price to rise for a few weeks until the fork which I think is happening in November, a week prior to that I expect the price to take a big hit again.
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September 13, 2017, 02:54:13 PM
 #3

dailly charts doesnt look good (death cross), but on weekly the 3666 might be defended, short time frames shows trend reversal, so its ranging days ahead of us...untill the range is broken, it may as well happen that the 3750 holds, i wouldnt be selling it now, ...
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September 14, 2017, 02:05:41 PM
 #4

As I pointed in this thread, the first support was on $3450. It is holding for now, but that's a very weak support level. Bitcoin had a rebound exactly on $ 3,431.74.
I'd wish it could hold the value, But I still see much more likely to get the support between 2650 and 2850 dollars.

Time will say...
Good luck everybody.
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September 15, 2017, 04:21:04 PM
 #5

it went a lot more down, but the devils 3666 is to Big magnet.
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September 15, 2017, 04:37:47 PM
 #6

Heres my chart



Note this is log scale.

I have marked a large bull channel and a more recent steeper bull channel. Neither of these is yet breached. Bitcoin may test the bottom of that steep channel at roughly $2.5K. That is the strongest area I'd look for confirmation the bull is still active. Although bitcoin could fall below that, and arguably still be in a wider bull mode while it stays above the lower trendline of the larger channel.

As far as those rising channels go, bitcoin looks like it may just be correcting after too many steep rises.

There is also a negative divergence on RSI and price marked with blue lines (not the vertical halving blue lines). This would normally be bearish sign. However this also happened at lower levels (blue dotted lines) and then price exploded higher instead of dropping (which caught me out)
 
Negative divergence shows might be start of bearish trend.

There is a lot of fake news and banker shilling, from like of Jamie Dimon and China, perhaps they are trying to turn the tide. I am sure if this was precious metals they would also be selling in huge volume naked shorts on the futures markets. Thanks to crypto they can't do that too. Hehe.

As long as bankers continue to fear bitcoin, the happier I am.
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September 15, 2017, 06:29:35 PM
 #7

The market is recovering now. It should recover by the end of the weekend or could be fall down below 3k I doubt, exactly what Im thinking. I just amazed Listen little bits of chinese news destroy the market only next couple of hours!

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September 15, 2017, 07:16:50 PM
 #8

May be all this situation with China restrictions will be a good thing for Bitcoin in long period. Bitcoin depends on China miners/markets/news too much for now.
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September 15, 2017, 07:35:13 PM
 #9

May be all this situation with China restrictions will be a good thing for Bitcoin in long period. Bitcoin depends on China miners/markets/news too much for now.

In the long term, yes. This will temporarily stifle the Chinese markets and crypto sector. That will allow the US, Japan and others to increase their respective market shares in regards to trading (spot and derivatives).

However, there is a twist here. Bitmain is the largest chip manufacturer in the industry. They just stopped taking BTC payments (payable internationally). Now they are only accepting CNY payments. They didn't accept CNY payments previously.

That means two things. Mining may become even more centralized within China because international customers can no longer pay in BTC. It also means that, for the time being, the only way to legally invest CNY into BTC is to buy mining hardware. It creates a very interesting situation, and I'm not sure exactly what it means for the price.

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September 15, 2017, 11:02:39 PM
 #10

So far this "bear market" was only a few days long, as the price is now only $300-400 lower than before we started getting stronger rumors about possible ban. By definition, the real bear market is when some asset is decreasing in its price for a long period of time, which is not what really happened now. Of course time flows faster in Bitcoin world, because it's traded 24/7, but still we are very far from declaring bear market. The price has been increasing for more than 1.5 years and there's still a lot of momentum. And if you'll think about fundamentals, you'll notice that recently a lot of companies and governments were in fact embracing Bitcoin, so we are still in a bull market, and it may last really long.

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September 16, 2017, 12:53:58 AM
 #11

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.


This seems to be fairly accurate.

I think that we are going to be in a bearish market for a long long time, potentially until the next halving.

Even though the price has risen, it has not risen to the point where it is safe to call this another bullish wave right now. There seems to be resistance at $3700. Floor has been lowered to around $3000, and imo this month we could potentially see the floor readjusted down to $2200-2500.

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September 16, 2017, 01:29:17 AM
 #12

So far this "bear market" was only a few days long, as the price is now only $300-400 lower than before we started getting stronger rumors about possible ban. By definition, the real bear market is when some asset is decreasing in its price for a long period of time, which is not what really happened now. Of course time flows faster in Bitcoin world, because it's traded 24/7, but still we are very far from declaring bear market. The price has been increasing for more than 1.5 years and there's still a lot of momentum. And if you'll think about fundamentals, you'll notice that recently a lot of companies and governments were in fact embracing Bitcoin, so we are still in a bull market, and it may last really long.

We are definitely still in a bull market based on any long term technical indicators (trend lines, moving averages). The larger trend is clearly up. But within trends, there are corrective periods. Context is everything: The 2014-2015 bear market was just a corrective period, but it was extremely painful for bulls, especially those who remained bullish long after the December 2013 top.

So, in that vein, we could still go lower yet and still be in a bull market. Even Masterluc now expects a run to the lower $2000s (after a bounce to the lower $4000s).

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September 16, 2017, 02:07:11 AM
 #13

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.


We are definitely overall in a bearish market right now. Price in the past 30 days is actually in the red which means that growth has slowed down significantly and even went in the negatives, which is an anomaly when compared to the pumps in the past few months.

Even though currently we are in a bullish recovery, there is still a lot of FUD.

Short term we may be able to breach $4k again, but i think by the end of the year we might see sub-$3000 levels consistently.


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September 16, 2017, 04:18:43 AM
 #14

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.


We are definitely overall in a bearish market right now. Price in the past 30 days is actually in the red which means that growth has slowed down significantly and even went in the negatives, which is an anomaly when compared to the pumps in the past few months.

Even though currently we are in a bullish recovery, there is still a lot of FUD.

Short term we may be able to breach $4k again, but i think by the end of the year we might see sub-$3000 levels consistently.

"Consistently" is the operative word here. That's the question at hand, at least from a wave trader's point of view. Whether this is the first leg in a triangle or a 3-wave correction, the expectation is generally that there is another leg down into the territory of the previous consolidation ($1800-3000).

But after that? We might be back in a full blown bull market, with no lower lows in sight. So that's the question: correction or bear market? Nobody can deny that we are in a corrective phase after a 40% drop. It will take time for the market to absorb this loss of momentum.

But a bear market like 2014? That's a bold call to make.

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September 16, 2017, 06:58:48 AM
 #15

it was interesting to watch when it was droping,...for examle eur/ltc and usd/ltc at bitstamp, at usd/ltc evrzone was selling but at eur/ltc evryone was buying, i still think that bcs of the 3 big shut down, there will be less btc and other cripto to be sold, so if the ones that has them, dont sell them, and the fresh mainstream steps in, we could be start to see ATH again, just bcs the institution guzs already stepped in and bought evrything at that dip, now just a few fresh buyers and we could easilly make new ATH.
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September 16, 2017, 02:14:44 PM
 #16

May be all this situation with China restrictions will be a good thing for Bitcoin in long period. Bitcoin depends on China miners/markets/news too much for now.

In the long term, yes. This will temporarily stifle the Chinese markets and crypto sector. That will allow the US, Japan and others to increase their respective market shares in regards to trading (spot and derivatives).

However, there is a twist here. Bitmain is the largest chip manufacturer in the industry. They just stopped taking BTC payments (payable internationally). Now they are only accepting CNY payments. They didn't accept CNY payments previously.

That means two things. Mining may become even more centralized within China because international customers can no longer pay in BTC. It also means that, for the time being, the only way to legally invest CNY into BTC is to buy mining hardware. It creates a very interesting situation, and I'm not sure exactly what it means for the price.

Doesn't that also mean that there is a gap on the industry to meet the international demand for mining chips, that is, without converting going through the trouble of converting your money to CNY?

I'd say this is an opportunity for another company to step up and grab the lion's share.

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September 16, 2017, 03:44:17 PM
 #17

Bearish as it is but bitcoin would be unpredictable at times but right now we can see a big come back, early on the value is at $3900 and right now it came back to the $3700 again it is really unpredictable right now it might go up for now but we can not say that it will be a bullish comeback because there are sure resistance that might happen But 1 think is for sure even if the price collapses it will surely comes back and rising up again.


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September 16, 2017, 04:24:35 PM
 #18

Bearish as you say but i think it's done the price correction is done and it is all getting back again on track to rise again. China's banning of ICO's and exchanges totally is not a lose but in fact it's an opportunity to the market for them to buy such a cheap price of bitcoin and sooner they will sell it at the higher price rate.

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September 16, 2017, 04:44:46 PM
 #19

I would call it hypervolatile at the moment.
There is still a lot of unceratinty in the market, and we have no clue if we have already seen the endgame of the chinese regulation politics.
I can't tell if the recent events brought so many people out of bitcoin that that market will become bearish over a longer period of time.
Most of the I expect to come back.

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September 16, 2017, 04:50:48 PM
 #20

I would call it hypervolatile at the moment.
There is still a lot of unceratinty in the market, and we have no clue if we have already seen the endgame of the chinese regulation politics.
I can't tell if the recent events brought so many people out of bitcoin that that market will become bearish over a longer period of time.
Most of the I expect to come back.


For almost 5 day if I am right we did experience the price to be bearish and just what you have said there is a lot of uncertainty in the market that we are still unaware of I also think that we are just beginning to see the hardcore problem because the value is still unpredictable to make an speculation about this, but as of now the value is very volatile for now.

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