Can upcoming Segwit2x destabilize BTC in the long run? And do you expect some price volatility with that?
It depends on many factors:
- how much mining hashrate will mine Segwit2x and how much will stay with "Olde Bitcoin"?
- will "the economy" (Bitcoin businesses, from whose many have signed the New York Agreement) try to convince their clients to upgrade to Segwit2x?
- if Segwit2x "wins" the battle, will Bitcoin Core developers "accept it" and change to the BTC1 team (with some grudging) to keep their influence?
The most "destabilizing" scenario is actually if the economy and the community stay divided and no one of the "two Bitcoins" wins the battle in a decisive way. Let's say Bitcoin Core retains 30-40% of the hashrate and Segwit2x 60-70%.
Otherwise, things are more simple:
- If Bitcoin Core manages to keep the majority of the hashrate, I think the Segwit2x fork will not succeed because miners rapidly would return. I think the Core team has still much more influence than all development teams of alternative implementations, so they will also retain most users if they are not forced to change (see next scenario).
- But if the miners keep supporting Segwit2x in an overwhelming way (about 85% support it), then Bitcoin Core will have a hard time because the long block times will make it almost unusable. Average block times, for more than a month, would be at least three times (or more) higher than now. That means a drastically loss on transaction capacity (-70%). In this case it
could be rational for the parts of "the economy" that do not support Segwit2x to simply accept Segwit2x as the "standard" Bitcoin because otherwise they would lose potential income.
People like to spread FUD saying that there will be some sort of crash with price. Similar things have been said before 1st August and BTC actually went bullish up to 5k.
Do you believe this upgrade will push Bitcoin to 10.000$ levels?
Actually, both forks are very different: Bitcoin Cash positioned itself as an altcoin with different branding and replay protection. Segwit2x is an upgrade proposal, although many Bitcoiners would never accept it as "the Bitcoin", the people promoting it do - and if they've only a slight chance to succeed, they will do everything to win the battle.
I think for an optimist scenario when one of the chains definitively has won, $10K are possible but unlikely (I think even now Bitcoin is slightly overvalued), my guess would be a new attack to $5000 (that will most likely fail) and a stabilization between $3000 and $4500. But in the scenario I described as the "worst case", I wouldn't be surprised if both chains' tokens fall below $1000.
We have answers to your questions already. Bitcoin Core is not supporting btc1 (segwit2x, I want to clarify, because noobs get confused: btc1=segwit2x enforcing client, similarly, Bitcoin ABC=Bitcoin Cash enforcing client).
Bitcoin Core members will abandon the Bitcoin project, or at least the most relevant ones, since if btc1 wins, Bitcoin is dead since it would be demonstrated that a coup of corporations can gather and put their own developers taking over the Bitcoin project.
It's obvious Bitcoin would suffer from a crash if btc1 wins.
The most likely outcome: More miners and vendors will drop from NYA (we already saw a couple) and segwit2x will not be able to hardfork without massive damage, which would make them irresponsible.
http://nob2x.org/I was expecting the crash we are seeing in november, not september.
Then I was expecting a failure of segwit2x, and after confirming we would avoid the hardfork, skyrocketing to $10,000+
