If the financial crisis taught me one thing - it is that coincidences are rare. When a lot of well known and "plugged in" people start talking about the same thing at the same time, you could assume one of three things
It was pure coincidence as the timing really was from their individual observations
It was a trial balloon that someone wanted to float to see how markets would respond
It was de facto policy and this was part of the messaging
My experience tells me that number 3 was often the case, especially if there was a catalyst.
The barrage of negativity on Bitcoin earlier this week seemed extremely high. The fact that some who spoke out against it, hadn't spoke out against it before, or wouldn't speak about it all in the ordinary course of business seemed telling. That coupled with the allegations of heavy North Korean use right as tensions with North Korea were mounting really raised my eyebrows.
This fit my Three Rules of Bitcoin well (link). Both side of the cryptocurrency debate have been expecting some sort of government crackdown in an effort to slow its growth. The detractors have been expecting a crackdown because they think it shouldn't exist. The most ardent believers expected a crackdown precisely because the digital currencies were disruptive and worrisome to the powers that be.
We have seen other crackdowns in the past, particularly out of China, but this one seems more coordinated and with some real support due to the North Korea allegations.
It will be a test Bitcoin and other digital currencies will have to whether. In the almost bipolar world of crypto, some clearly hope this is the end of a product they never understood and some expect crypto to emerge stronger than ever - as this will be the exact type of event that it is designed to circumvent.
For those who owned a small amount in their highly speculative allocation bucket (link) this is recent drop from $5,000 to $3,000 in Bitcoin is bad, but not out of line with its potential volatility. As I disclosed the other day, I do not currently own any cryptocurrency and would continue to be a seller because if all my experience during the financial crisis is useful - then this story hasn't fully played out.
There may be a time when I choose to go back in as a longer term view, but that is not today. Yes, I am fully aware that view might miss some short term bounces or maybe my overall premise is incorrect, but that is a risk I am willing to live with given my current view (Bitcoin jumped from $3,000 to $3,175 in the time it took to type this note - which is scary in its own right).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petertchir/2017/09/15/an-organized-effort-to-crack-down-on-bitcoin/#6710d4266541
