Should I sell my Jalapeno? Seems to be working fine, but...

[notlist3d]

A lot depends on BFL.  If they get process working good and start shipping lots... then selling sooner is better.   But if they keep going slowly like normal... price will prob slowly go down and you can mine and not worry.

If you see BFL post a huge list of shipping dates... sell lol. But i dont think we expect that.

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[TheJuice]

For all the modeling I've done it's about 3-4 BTC per Ghash over the next 6 months; with BFL chips being unprofitable around 9-12 months out. So I'd value a 5.5 Ghash machine at around 20 BTCs. If you could get more I'd sell.

[one4many]

It is a very simple 4 step process: 
1) Try to turn of the 'greedy' part of your brain.
2) Look at the math and try to find a reasonable advise you would give a close friend.
3) Turn the greedy brain back on and face the fact it is you, and not a close friend.
4) Finally, try to stick with that advise you found in step 2!

My personal opinion: Keep it, if you don't need the money (right now).

[KS]

It is a very simple 4 step process: 
1) Try to turn of the 'greedy' part of your brain.
2) Look at the math and try to find a reasonable advise you would give a close friend.
3) Turn the greedy brain back on and face the fact it is you, and not a close friend.
4) Finally, try to stick with that advise you found in step 2!

My personal opinion: Keep  sell it, even if you don't need the money (right now).

FTFY

[The 4ner]

Don't mean to doubt, but seriously take a picture with it and upload it. I'd like to see proof of ownership. I'm contemplating purchasing one but am waiting for the community's attitude toward BFL to change.

[SGExodus]

What do you think 5.5GH/s will earn 100 days from now? 0.2BTC/day? Or more like 0.02BTC/day?

You are getting around 0.23BTC/day now.   

With difficulty increasing at 8% per week, you will get about 0.11 BTC/day in 100 days.
With difficulty increasing at 15% per week, you will get about 0.05 BTC/day in 100 days.

[Rampion]

What do you think 5.5GH/s will earn 100 days from now? 0.2BTC/day? Or more like 0.02BTC/day?

You are getting around 0.23BTC/day now.   

With difficulty increasing at 8% per week, you will get about 0.11 BTC/day in 100 days.
With difficulty increasing at 15% per week, you will get about 0.05 BTC/day in 100 days.

He won't get 25BTC in the next year.

So yes, I would sell immediately for 25BTC. No question.

[SGExodus]

Yeah, unless there is a slow down of network difficulty after the market is saturated with ASIC devices, you will never earn 25 BTC with this machine over its entire life time.

[trogdorjw73]

For all the modeling I've done it's about 3-4 BTC per Ghash over the next 6 months; with BFL chips being unprofitable around 9-12 months out. So I'd value a 5.5 Ghash machine at around 20 BTCs. If you could get more I'd sell.

That's a pretty bold statement. "Unprofitable in 9-12 months"? So, they're drawing 30W, which works out to around $2.50 (or less in some cases) of electricity used per MONTH! For a BFL ASIC to be "unprofitable", it would mean that BTC prices remain stagnant and the difficulty becomes such that you would only mine roughly 0.02 BTC per month, or around 0.00067 BTC per day. That would imply a difficulty ramp to 4 billion or higher (a 375x increase from today's difficulty of around 12.5 million). And that, frankly, is lunacy.

Now if you mean you expect BFL hardware to fail thanks to a poor design and manufacturing process and that you won't get more than 9-12 months of use out of the Jalepeno, that's a different matter. I'm not sure things will be quite that bad, but I wouldn't expect a Jalepeno to merrily mine away for several years without issue.

[sagiko]

Just keep it

[Bitcoinorama]

Why is this even a debate?!

If you can get +3k or even better equivalent value in Bitcoins, do it.

You then have saved a hell of a long time recouping those coins having something unnecessarily running 24/7 and that's *if it continues without fault. It's hardly as BFL will be prompt in fixing faulty equipment even if with a 'lifetime guarantee', why risk it?

You can then reinvest in something with actual longevity, like be ready to pounce when 2nd Gen ASICs are announced, by say, Avalon.

You could probably delay the listing on eBay by a week, or make it a nice 10 dayer, enjoying a couple extra coins along the way.

[Ivica]

Should've made a simple poll. I would sell it for 25btc, if i were you.

[Bitcoinorama]

For all the modeling I've done it's about 3-4 BTC per Ghash over the next 6 months; with BFL chips being unprofitable around 9-12 months out. So I'd value a 5.5 Ghash machine at around 20 BTCs. If you could get more I'd sell.

That's a pretty bold statement. "Unprofitable in 9-12 months"? So, they're drawing 30W, which works out to around $2.50 (or less in some cases) of electricity used per MONTH! For a BFL ASIC to be "unprofitable", it would mean that BTC prices remain stagnant and the difficulty becomes such that you would only mine roughly 0.02 BTC per month, or around 0.00067 BTC per day. That would imply a difficulty ramp to 4 billion or higher (a 375x increase from today's difficulty of around 12.5 million). And that, frankly, is lunacy.

Now if you mean you expect BFL hardware to fail thanks to a poor design and manufacturing process and that you won't get more than 9-12 months of use out of the Jalepeno, that's a different matter. I'm not sure things will be quite that bad, but I wouldn't expect a Jalepeno to merrily mine away for several years without issue.

Hardly, courtesy of jspeilberg; Bitsyncom's chip wallet is currently holding ~60,000 BTC which represents 760,000 Asic chips which translates to +215THash worth of asics coming on line once they ship.

AsicMiner... BTCGarden and others are good for another 100 - 200 THash in the next 2 months.  BFL will most likely still struggle to add any serious hashpower onto the network for a couple of months.

That's first gen ASIC online approximately August ~ 4 months away. A years time while be a very, very different landscape. Bear in mind as Yifu stated at Bitcoin 2013, we don't even know the effect from private equity developing their own chips and won't until they come online, which they should also by August if they started in Feb. They're Yifu's words...

[jspielberg]

I guess it depends on your goals/attitude.

If you are mining for fun and you won't kick yourself if you make less... Keep it!  You have a rare item with a ton of history drama and street credit.

If you are here for profit only, then you would be odd not to not take 25btc.  Put it up for a 10 day auction and enjoy it some.

If you are serious about mining, I would start thinking about investing strategy for gen2 asics.  Your best bet would be to sell the miner and wait for the new tech.  I am guessing March 2014.

[Bitcoinorama]

Yo, and one thing I'd do immediately is try and get that firmware revision that bumps your device up 2gh/s, then sell immediately. You'll prob get another $1-2k on eBay...

[Cluster2k]

Judging by the unofficial BFL twitter feed they're getting thousands of chips per week and hundreds of boards... very soon.  Not sure if they're just stringing us along by (again and again) promising the world and then delivering almost nothing, or whether things will really be different this time.  If BFL will finally do what they've been promising since October 2012 and ship en mass to customers then it may be a good idea to sell a Jalapeno to those desperate to get their hands on one.  If BFL keeps going like they have been and delivering a few units per week then keeping your Jalapeno and continuing to mine is a wise move.

[Bitcoinorama]

Judging by the unofficial BFL twitter feed they're getting thousands of chips per week and hundreds of boards... very soon.  Not sure if they're just stringing us along by (again and again) promising the world and then delivering almost nothing, or whether things will really be different this time.  If BFL will finally do what they've been promising since October 2012 and ship en mass to customers then it may be a good idea to sell a Jalapeno to those desperate to get their hands on one.  If BFL keeps going like they have been and delivering a few units per week then keeping your Jalapeno and continuing to mine is a wise move.

Cluster the point is BFL delivering or not no longer dictates the exponential future effect on hashrate.

[TheSwede75]

sell it, if you can get $3000 for it


in bitcoins, or person-to-person cash transfer 

Considering the Asicminer blades are selling for BTC50+ @ just over 10 GH/s he should definitely be able to get $3K for it.

[Eich]

If you sell it, sell it for BTC and fuck the dollar. don't use the dollar for anything. i think that's where bitcoins true value is. getting away from the dollar altogether.

[canton]

Don't mean to doubt, but seriously take a picture with it and upload it. I'd like to see proof of ownership. I'm contemplating purchasing one but am waiting for the community's attitude toward BFL to change.

Totally understandable. See attached undeniable photoshop photographic proof of me with my seven Jalapeños.


(Couldn't resist.)