UFC 216: Ferguson vs Lee Info and Prediction Thread

[tokeweed]

Updated the thread with complete (almost) info to help you with your bets.  Just 7 days more to go guys.  Good luck!  

And here's a nice video from BJJ Scout on the main event.  Pretty good analysis by them as always.  I highly recommend you guys watch it.

BJJ Scout: Tony Ferguson v Kevin Lee UFC 216 Preview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbiXFD9FKCU

[tokeweed]

I'm posting video to get you pumped and excited guys.  I understand why this thread is kinda slow with the replies since Kevin Lee isn't a top 5 fighter but it could be a good match up for Ferguson.  But I still want to see Ferguson fight Khabib tho.  That would have been the sh*t.

Enjoy the video.

UFC 216 Countdown: Full Episode
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA2F2-x3mmM

Edit:  The event is this weekend in case you guys didn't know.

[Hydrogen]

Here's an attempt at a breakdown of the main event.

Kevin Lee's kickboxing hasn't served him well in the past. He was TKO'ed by Leonardo Santos. Francisco Trinaldo landed a good left hand that put Kevin Lee on wobbly legs, nearly finishing him. While Kevin Lee trains boxing in Floyd Mayweather Jr's boxing gym, he hasn't shown the type of savvy one might expect from a big name gym in his stand up striking skills.

Based on what we've seen so far, wrestling is Kevin Lee's best chance of winning the fight.

Tony Ferguson is a state and national NCAA division 2 champion in wrestling. On paper, Ferguson is the better wrestler. MMA being a completely different sport from greco/freestyle wrestling, complicates things. One thing that separates mixed martial arts from other sports is the tremendous leaps in skill athletes can make in a very short time simply by changing their nutrition plans, switching coaches/gyms and taking a different approach to things.

Ferguson should be the betting favorite but as has happened to often in the past, the underdog has good chances of winning if they work hard, up their game and find a better approach to training and how they do things.

How does everyone see the fights panning out?

[bbc.reporter]

@Hydrogen. Kevin Lee will lose by submission. Look at the stats, Tony has 81% in takedown defense  and Kevin Lee has a tendency of making desperate takedown attempts when he sees his original game plan is not working. Tony could then submit him by means of the darce.

[tokeweed]

3 more days to go guys then we are over this event, on to the more exciting UFC 217 we go.  I'll start a thread for it later and I think all of you will love the co main event.    Anyway, I'll post more videos for you guys and hopefully help you to make the right bets.  Dan Hardy's breakdown have always been helpful in assessing each fighter, at least imo.

Enjoy. 

UFC 216: Inside the Octagon - Johnson vs Borg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MnJ5e2V7zM

UFC 216: Inside the Octagon: Ferguson vs Lee
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kY40WKIcVc

[thejaytiesto]

@Hydrogen. Kevin Lee will lose by submission. Look at the stats, Tony has 81% in takedown defense  and Kevin Lee has a tendency of making desperate takedown attempts when he sees his original game plan is not working. Tony could then submit him by means of the darce.

You can't never count Kevin Lee out. I think it will be a good match. Sure, Tony Ferguson is a beast and always the favorite, but Kevin Lee is an hungry young lion. He lost a year ago tho, while Ferguson didn't lost since 2013.

Anyway this card is a solid one for a change, so many mediocre cards lately in UFC. I want to see the winner of this fight Connor.

[edisystem]

Johnson vs borg will be agreat match man.both fighters are really offensive

[Hydrogen]

Nik Lentz was pulled from his fight for medical reasons. Will Brooks vs Nik Lentz fight is off.

There is also bellator 184 tonight.

Bellator 184

Eduardo Dantas (c)   vs.   Darrion Caldwell            
Daniel Straus   vs.   Emmanuel Sanchez            
Pat Curran   vs.   John Teixeira            
Joe Taimanglo   vs.   Leandro Higo

Kevin Lee missed weight on his first try but thankfully made it on his 2nd attempt.

[tokeweed]

^ Yup.  Ferguson was teasing Lee on the missing weight at the first attempt, saying it was 'unprofessional'.  But it's good to see for him to make it and the fight is still on. 

Lee looks very emotional and this usually doesn't end well as it could cloud his decision making.  But at other times it could give him an edge, just like Garbardt did with Cruz.  We'll see...

UFC 216:  Official Weigh-in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4zmzpz7wQE


Tony Ferguson (155) vs. Kevin Lee (154.5)
Demetrious Johnson (125) vs. Ray Borg (124)
Fabricio Werdum (247) vs. Derrick Lewis (263.5)
Mara Romero Borella (126) vs. Kalindra Faria (125)
Beneil Dariush (156) vs Evan Dunham (156)
Tom Duquesnoy (135.5) vs. Cody Stamann (136)
Bobby Green (155) vs. Lando Vannata (155.75)
Pearl Gonzalez (116) vs. Poliana Botelho (115)
Matt Schnell (126) vs. Marco Beltran (126)
Walt Harris (251) vs. Mark Godbeer (244.5)
John Moraga (126) vs. Magomed Bibulatov (126)
Thales Leites (185.5) vs. Brad Tavares (185.5)

[Kemarit]

Hmm. They reason why they missed the weight in his first attempt is that they have "mistimed" it? LOL. What kind of reason is that? You are a pro and this small things make or break a fighter. And Lee even admitted that he had hard time making the weight cut. I believed that they is a big factor and will really show as the fight goes on. I believed that Tony has a good stamina right? I'm sure he will fight standing up and test how Lee's stamina is as the fight progress. History tells us that fighters who have difficulty making the weight usually losses. I don't know if this will holds true with Lee. The interim belt is on the line so let's see how the fight will end.

[notserp]

my fav pick this card is Evan Dunham the rest will be small plays


Kevin Lee
Fabricio Werdum
Tom Duquesnoy
Bobby Green
Poliana Botelho
Brad Tavares

[bbc.reporter]

@notserp. Why Kevin Lee? Are you only guessing and choosing blind or is there something you saw or know that made that decision?

Tony is the best in the division and will not lose to someone like Kevin Lee, I reckon.

[btc_angela]

Its over. Tony Ferguson submitted Lee. And the panel of experts here are all correct in their prediction (including me  ). That Tony will win by submission. I haven't seen the fight but I read that Kevin was leading in the scorecards but it looks like his is strategy is to take out Tony early. Maybe he felt that he will not last 5 rounds because of the issue on his weight cut. But unfortunately, Tony caught him. He is now the interim LW champion. Congrats.

[tokeweed]

^ If you saw Ferguson's post fight interview, that's what exactly what his camp's plan was.  Get Lee to be aggro in the beginning and make him tired as the match rolls on.  Lee faded by the third.

So what's next for Tony Ferguson?  I think McGregor is gonna dodge this guy.

UFC 216:  Results

[YuginKadoya]

There is no doubt about it that Tony Ferguson would sure win, even if Kevin lee was a younger competitor than Tony Ferguson I think Ferguson has the upper hand you can see from the number of his fight the number of wins than Kevin, Although Lee has a change in winning in this fight Ferguson has a lot of experience in the ring no doubt about it and winning against a Submission the triangle choke, giving Kevin lee 3 lost congrats to the winners of this bet.

[eaLiTy]

^ If you saw Ferguson's post fight interview, that's what exactly what his camp's plan was.  Get Lee to be aggro in the beginning and make him tired as the match rolls on.  Lee faded by the third.
So what's next for Tony Ferguson?  I think McGregor is gonna dodge this guy.

It is really hard for McGregor to duck Tony Ferguson now ,he is lucky he does not have to face khabib Nurmagomedov now as i was waiting for a showing between them,this was a really good card with many interesting fights and i am impressed with the submission of Demetrious Johnson as i have not seen that kind of arm bar,it was awesome and really difficult to pull off against a trained opponent ,i did not noticed the change of opponent in Werdum as he schooled the new guy,Tony sticked to his game plan and Kevin Lee lacked in condition and it looked like as he was not prepared for a five round battle,i lost my bet in Mara Romero Borella v Kalindra Faria as i was rooting for Faria to win a good battle and the result was opposite.

[bbc.reporter]

Tony Ferguson fought Kevin well but he got hit a few times with strong punches in the head because of his carelessness. He cannot be that overconfident versus Conor if he gets a real title shot. Conor can knock him out in the 1st round. I see some people in the thread are making the mistake in thinking  that Conor is avoiding fights in MMA after his boxing match.

[yugyug]

I miss to watch the fight but my prediction and analysis favor to Ferg for a win. I have no doubt that Tony would win this fight, based on the fight result
 it lasted for 3 rounds via submission,good job Tony ! But i doubt that Ferg and Mcgregor match would not gonna happen earlier next year. Ferg is inferior for McGregor's fighting skills.

[Siren]

I miss to watch the fight but my prediction and analysis favor to Ferg for a win. I have no doubt that Tony would win this fight, based on the fight result
 it lasted for 3 rounds via submission,good job Tony ! But i doubt that Ferg and Mcgregor match would not gonna happen earlier next year. Ferg is inferior for McGregor's fighting skills.

I did watch previous fight of Tony Ferguson, although he is a freak of nature, he has also this ability to be hit just like in the Abel fight. If Conor hits him like that he will be KO for sure. I think Conor is leaning towards Diaz fight again. So I doubt that Conor - Ferguson will happen. However, I favor Conor to win if they face in the ring. Conor stand up skills will overcome Tony's aggressiveness. Both of them are tall and awkward, but Conor is just above them all in terms of skills. I'm sure that Conor will KO Tony.

[frmracc]

I miss to watch the fight but my prediction and analysis favor to Ferg for a win. I have no doubt that Tony would win this fight, based on the fight result
 it lasted for 3 rounds via submission,good job Tony ! But i doubt that Ferg and Mcgregor match would not gonna happen earlier next year. Ferg is inferior for McGregor's fighting skills.

I did watch previous fight of Tony Ferguson, although he is a freak of nature, he has also this ability to be hit just like in the Abel fight. If Conor hits him like that he will be KO for sure. I think Conor is leaning towards Diaz fight again. So I doubt that Conor - Ferguson will happen. However, I favor Conor to win if they face in the ring. Conor stand up skills will overcome Tony's aggressiveness. Both of them are tall and awkward, but Conor is just above them all in terms of skills. I'm sure that Conor will KO Tony.

I watched Tony Ferguson vs Lee live, IF Ferguson fight McGregor, McGregor will win 100%. Ferguson is like no def on that match against Lee, Lee is good on the first round but gassed on 2nd round and dead on 3rd round. Ferguson is good on recovery and ground battle though. But if he fight against McGregor, pretty sure mcgregor win.