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Author Topic: New mining calculator taking difficulty development into account  (Read 9921 times)
OnkelPaul
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May 30, 2013, 09:49:44 AM
 #1

We've seen the rapid increase in mining power during recent weeks, and many mining result calculators still provide estimates based on a fixed difficulty which can be quite misleading.
Here's a mining calculator that takes difficulty increases into account (it calculates estimated daily difficulty change based on the last 10 actual difficulty changes):

    http://coinish.com/calc/

Try it, you'll be surprised by the results!

Onkel Paul

We're open for suggestions and improvements!

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May 30, 2013, 09:50:42 AM
 #2

Error establishing a database connection
OnkelPaul
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May 30, 2013, 09:55:31 AM
Last edit: May 30, 2013, 10:49:10 AM by OnkelPaul
 #3

 Shocked Oops  Embarrassed
We're looking into it. This should not happen!

Onkel Paul

Update: Fixed now

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May 31, 2013, 02:58:00 AM
 #4

Unfortunately, its still greatly miss-leading at this point as ASIC's have not started to flood in. And it will likely be a month or more before the Tsunami.
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May 31, 2013, 04:46:02 AM
Last edit: May 31, 2013, 02:51:46 PM by GenTarkin
 #5

yeah, this makes my avy batch 2 projections look really depressing =(
only 13k USD if I get the thing 1.5 months from now, even less due to the mentioned above in previous post...
fk, shoulda sold it for 30k when I had offers for that much.


Anyways, thanks for ur calc dude! it fucking rules =)

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May 31, 2013, 02:52:44 PM
 #6

Unfortunately, its still greatly miss-leading at this point as ASIC's have not started to flood in. And it will likely be a month or more before the Tsunami.

Sure there will be a flood, but will taper off too which can be somewhat absorbed by applying the average over the whole curve

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GenTarkin
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May 31, 2013, 04:11:49 PM
 #7

Hey, to the OP any chance you can add the BTC calculation in as well? (BTC paid, ROI, profit .. etc...)

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OnkelPaul
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May 31, 2013, 04:26:04 PM
 #8

Hey, to the OP any chance you can add the BTC calculation in as well? (BTC paid, ROI, profit .. etc...)

BTC paid is already possible (select BTC as the investment currency).
For the other fields, I will probably add currency selectors, too, with options for more currencies.
We are already thinking about a general BTC/currency converter tool to add anyway.

Onkel Paul

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May 31, 2013, 04:32:11 PM
 #9

Unfortunately, its still greatly miss-leading at this point as ASIC's have not started to flood in. And it will likely be a month or more before the Tsunami.

You're right. The difficulty raise estimation can only take into consideration previous data, but it can not anticipate future events.
You can change the "difficulty increase per day" field if to see how different values will affect the outcome. However, the actual development will most likely deviate from a purely exponential curve, and that wouild be very hard to model with a simple calculator such as this.

One additional thing that we do not yet take into account is the future development of exchange rates. If USD/BTC continues to follow a roughly exponential curve, too (give or take a few bubbles and crashes), profitability for miners looks a bit different since even diminishing BTC results might still translate into reasonable USD values. However, I did not really calculate that through, it is well possible that this effect is dwarfed by the difficulty increase.

Onkel Paul

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May 31, 2013, 05:58:35 PM
 #10

I would put my money on a easy 600-800 Tera hash coming online in the next 6 months or less.(As long as BFL delivers, Note: this includes other ASIC Vendors too)  And that is based off know numbers, which are likely lower than the real numbers.  While I'm still bullish on the exchange rate, I think we may be back to last years slow climb. Reason being the price has basically stagnated since MtGoxs Dwolla account was seized, so the big speculators have been mostly kicked out, along with a main channel for people to get USD in/out of the market.
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June 01, 2013, 08:53:22 PM
 #11

please add ASCIMINER blades and erupters

i tested Blade, after year with 1.3% daydiff increase it will be -700 usd.

very good Smiley
it will have a huge resell value after 10 years.

i will keep mine for my grandsons Wink
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June 02, 2013, 01:59:32 PM
 #12

very nice!

played with it for a while Smiley
OnkelPaul
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June 02, 2013, 09:38:24 PM
 #13

We had a bug in the calculation of break-even considering reduction and time to deliver (which was ignored), this is fixed now.
In addition, we'll add more hardware options when we collected relevant data points...

Onkel Paul

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June 03, 2013, 12:16:11 AM
 #14

we won't have an accurate idea until all the asic plug up

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OnkelPaul
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June 03, 2013, 06:02:23 AM
 #15

we won't have an accurate idea until all the asic plug up

You're absolutely right, it is impossible to accurately predict how difficulty will develop.
My guess is that the difficulty increase predicted by exponentially extrapolating recent data is a conservative guess - it will probably be quite a bit stronger once masses of ASICs start rolling in. And then profitability calculation might look entirely different.

Onkel Paul

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June 06, 2013, 02:24:53 AM
 #16

Just wanted to say that this is the best calculator out there by far in terms of flexibility. Thank you!
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June 06, 2013, 03:29:41 AM
 #17

Make  " Income/planned time: "
and  " ... considering reduction: "

available in BTC.
Don't convert them automatically in USD.

Nice work nonetheless.

BTC : 1Ct9opEdmq4ZuZmNQmhGBDcurrePFykTRt
LTC : LLqGtKpAdx6Ci8ZaSrvWG6WXfFF3mPK4V9
klintay
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June 06, 2013, 05:20:06 AM
 #18

Just a shot in the dark here...

But the most recent jump in difficulty was 20% over 10 days right? roughly i think. when previously it had been going at about 10% over ten days. I might be wrong here so please tell me if i am.

I hypothesize that difficulty increase will DOUBLE every 40 days from now until the market is flooded with ASICs

If we use this as a calculation for the difficulty rate in September we get:


15,000,000 x 1.20 ^ 4 =  31,104,000 (difficulty on 16/06/2013)

31,104,000 x 1.40 ^ 4 = 119,489,126 (difficulty on 26/07/2013)

119,489,126 x 1.80 ^ 4 = 1,254, 349,053 (difficulty on 1/09/2013)

These calculations presume that:
120 days till September
12 lots of 10
every 10 days difficulty increases
every 40 days that increase doubles

I hope i am wrong but at these levels even a 350Ghz miner in September wont really be a profitable ROI, even if the price of BTC was 350 USD


EYE




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paszczakojad
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June 08, 2013, 07:35:57 PM
 #19

We're open for suggestions and improvements!

Hi,

I have one suggestion - now there's possibility to set difficulty increase rate in percent. I think that the difficulty will rise in linear fashion now - the ASIC manufacturers have a constant rate of releasing new devices that depends on their manufacturing capabilities (it doesn't matter if they manufacture them for the customers or for themselves), so the total hashrate will rise linearly (on average). There will be changes in that increase rate - if one of these ASIC companies opens new manufacturing facilities. But it will be still close to linear.

So it would be nice to set daily increase rate (like 1,000,000 increase in difficulty per day). Calculator could suggest the value basing on, say, 7-days average.

P.
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June 09, 2013, 03:11:19 PM
 #20

We're open for suggestions and improvements!

Hi,

I have one suggestion - now there's possibility to set difficulty increase rate in percent. I think that the difficulty will rise in linear fashion now - the ASIC manufacturers have a constant rate of releasing new devices that depends on their manufacturing capabilities (it doesn't matter if they manufacture them for the customers or for themselves), so the total hashrate will rise linearly (on average). There will be changes in that increase rate - if one of these ASIC companies opens new manufacturing facilities. But it will be still close to linear.

So it would be nice to set daily increase rate (like 1,000,000 increase in difficulty per day). Calculator could suggest the value basing on, say, 7-days average.

P.

I made a few calculations like that the other day. I've copied them below.

I'll make the following assumptions:

    I start mining at the very start of a new difficulty round.
    The starting difficulty is based on a network hashrate of 500 Th/s.
    The network hash rate increases by 100 TH/s each new difficulty round.

This gives us the following data for a 5 Gh/s device:

Network Hash Rate = 500 Th/s, Difficulty = 69849193.0961609, BTC/round = 0.50475000
Network Hash Rate = 600 Th/s, Difficulty = 83819031.7153931, BTC/round = 0.42062500
Network Hash Rate = 700 Th/s, Difficulty = 97788870.3346252, BTC/round = 0.36053571
Network Hash Rate = 800 Th/s, Difficulty = 111758708.953857, BTC/round = 0.31546875
Network Hash Rate = 900 Th/s, Difficulty = 125728547.57309, BTC/round = 0.28041667
Network Hash Rate = 1000 Th/s, Difficulty = 139698386.192322, BTC/round = 0.25237500

That gives a total of 2.13417113 BTC for the 6 difficulty rounds. Since I ordered in April when BTC was at it's high, I'll recoup the cost for the device and make a profit after 4 rounds.

With the network hash rate at 1900 Th/s, I'd be making about the same as what I get now from my 300 Mh/s, which is still profitable.
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