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Author Topic: Much lower earnings with new difficulty increase?  (Read 2570 times)
Skag
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May 30, 2013, 09:57:49 AM
 #1

I have 2x 7970 mining at 1.35-1.4 Gh/s.

So, I've been mining since difficulty was about 10m, and about a couple of weeks ago I could make 0.1BTC/day.
Last two or three days I've found that I can hardly make 0.5 or 0.7 per day. At least this is what it seems like. Btw I'm on slush's pool.

Any other experiencing the same behaviour?
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Nemo1024
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May 30, 2013, 10:49:26 AM
Last edit: May 30, 2013, 11:03:06 AM by Nemo1024
 #2

Sounds about right. In about 8 days you can subtract another BTC0.01 from your daily earnings.

“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
Skag
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May 30, 2013, 10:59:15 AM
 #3

Sounds about right. In about 8 days you can subtract another BTC0.1 from your daily earnings.

why? you mean because subsequent increase?
Nemo1024
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May 30, 2013, 11:01:39 AM
 #4

Yes. Currently the difficulty goes up approx every 10 days at an ever increasing rate due to more and more ASICs coming on-line. Next projected difficulty is 13.930.881 in 7.5 days.

EDIT: Just noticed a typo: I meant you can subtract BTC0.01 Sorry for the scare  Grin

“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
Skag
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May 30, 2013, 11:16:24 AM
 #5

Ok that's not AS bad then. Still, feels like a bigger decrease. Oh well, I guess you're right. So when's that fine line between mining BTC and switch to LTC to exchange them for BTC, difficulty-wise ?  Lips sealed
Nemo1024
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May 30, 2013, 11:49:50 AM
 #6

You have to calculate it for yourself, based on electricity cost, BTC/USD price and BTC/LTC price.
Here are a couple of calculators to help you:
http://www.coinish.com/calc/#
http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Mine is 100,000,000 @ 0.0651$/kWt and BTC costing $120.

“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
Skag
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May 30, 2013, 11:57:16 AM
 #7

What's your hw setup?
Nemo1024
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May 30, 2013, 12:00:44 PM
Last edit: May 31, 2013, 02:22:53 PM by Nemo1024
 #8

To answer your edited question Wink
100,000,000 in difficulty. At that point I will be mining at a loss electricity cost-wise, but gambling on BTC/USD price increase. After 160,000,000 and once the winter 2013/2014 is over I will switch off my GPU rigs.

As for LTC switch, keep an eye on this chart/calculator:
http://dustcoin.com/mining
As long as LTC/BTC ratio is below 100, you are better off mining BTC, if you plan to sell your mined LTCs immediately at the current price level. You might, of course, gamble for the ratio to increase in the future and mine-and-hold LTC.

EDIT: 3x7970, 3x6770, 1x6570 = 2.5GH/s [winter] or 2.2GH/s [summer] (+ some CPUs mining LTC @ 180KH/s).

“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
Skag
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May 30, 2013, 03:11:12 PM
 #9

I see. Well, may thanks for that info, the websites, and for sharing your hw info!  Smiley

Time to do some calculations I suppose!
patricktim
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May 31, 2013, 02:11:55 PM
 #10

your hw setup is bad.

Nemo1024
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May 31, 2013, 02:22:36 PM
Last edit: May 31, 2013, 02:38:24 PM by Nemo1024
 #11

your hw setup is bad.

And you base that assertion on what? I just listed the cards that I have.

If you want a per machine break-down, you could have just asked:

1x7970 (this runs hot during summer, so I underclock it to 900MHz, while in winter it works at 1150MHz using cgminer's --auto-gpu)
1x7970 + 1x6770 (1175MHZ + 950MHZ)
1x7970 + 1x6770 + 1x6570 (1150MHz + 925MHZ + 900MHz)
1x6770 (925MHz)

“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
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May 31, 2013, 02:28:52 PM
 #12

There is a built in incentive to keep mining.
Let's say mining costs rise above profitability. Any slowing in production this causes means a relative increase in demand. That triggers an increase in BTC prices and makes mining profitable again.
There are scenarios where this doesn't work. But as long as the demand is there it will be met.

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May 31, 2013, 06:46:05 PM
 #13

There is a built in incentive to keep mining.
Let's say mining costs rise above profitability. Any slowing in production this causes means a relative increase in demand. That triggers an increase in BTC prices and makes mining profitable again.
There are scenarios where this doesn't work. But as long as the demand is there it will be met.

Your logic is flawed. Mining has no relation to bitcoin price at all. Bitcoin production is stable no matter how many people mine. That is the point of the variable difficulty.
DrG
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June 01, 2013, 09:24:17 AM
 #14

There is a built in incentive to keep mining.
Let's say mining costs rise above profitability. Any slowing in production this causes means a relative increase in demand. That triggers an increase in BTC prices and makes mining profitable again.
There are scenarios where this doesn't work. But as long as the demand is there it will be met.

Your logic is flawed. Mining has no relation to bitcoin price at all. Bitcoin production is stable no matter how many people mine. That is the point of the variable difficulty.

The fact that you used the word logic but misused the word relation (as in correlation) means your reasoning is flawed.  What you probably meant was mining has no causation to BTC price.  Most every long term forum member would agree there is a correlation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient

The BTC is not stable no matter how many people mine (production yes, price no).  That is a fallacy.  If just one person mined with an ASIC back in 2009 while everybody else was on CPUs, that one person would have about 11 million coins now and they would be worthless.  The value of the coin is determined by both miners and the people who accept the coins.  You think BTC would be worth $130USD if just 20 people were mining  Huh Roll Eyes
Eastwind
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June 02, 2013, 12:01:49 PM
 #15

There is a built in incentive to keep mining.
Let's say mining costs rise above profitability. Any slowing in production this causes means a relative increase in demand. That triggers an increase in BTC prices and makes mining profitable again.
There are scenarios where this doesn't work. But as long as the demand is there it will be met.

Your logic is flawed. Mining has no relation to bitcoin price at all. Bitcoin production is stable no matter how many people mine. That is the point of the variable difficulty.

The fact that you used the word logic but misused the word relation (as in correlation) means your reasoning is flawed.  What you probably meant was mining has no causation to BTC price.  Most every long term forum member would agree there is a correlation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient

The BTC is not stable no matter how many people mine (production yes, price no).  That is a fallacy.  If just one person mined with an ASIC back in 2009 while everybody else was on CPUs, that one person would have about 11 million coins now and they would be worthless.  The value of the coin is determined by both miners and the people who accept the coins.  You think BTC would be worth $130USD if just 20 people were mining  Huh Roll Eyes


I agree. The more people own BTC, the more valuable it is.
Amph
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June 02, 2013, 09:36:18 PM
 #16

it doesn't seem right, you should earn more, i think is just bad luck
ashaw596
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June 03, 2013, 12:22:41 PM
 #17

To answer your edited question Wink
100,000,000 in difficulty. At that point I will be mining at a loss electricity cost-wise, but gambling on BTC/USD price increase. After 160,000,000 and once the winter 2013/2014 is over I will switch off my GPU rigs.

As for LTC switch, keep an eye on this chart/calculator:
http://dustcoin.com/mining
As long as LTC/BTC ratio is below 100, you are better off mining BTC, if you plan to sell your mined LTCs immediately at the current price level. You might, of course, gamble for the ratio to increase in the future and mine-and-hold LTC.

EDIT: 3x7970, 3x6770, 1x6570 = 2.5GH/s [winter] or 2.2GH/s [summer] (+ some CPUs mining LTC @ 180KH/s).

You know, you should stop mining when it becomes unprofitable (Economics, Shutdown point is when average revenue is below average variable cost). If you still want to get bitcoins then, you would get more by purchasing them on an exchange using the money you would have spent on electricity.
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June 06, 2013, 02:46:22 AM
 #18

You have to calculate it for yourself, based on electricity cost, BTC/USD price and BTC/LTC price.
Here are a couple of calculators to help you:
http://www.coinish.com/calc/#
http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Mine is 100,000,000 @ 0.0651$/kWt and BTC costing $120.

Where are u getting 6.5 cents per k/w hour Huh

OBJECT NOT FOUND
YipYip
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June 06, 2013, 02:47:52 AM
 #19

There is a built in incentive to keep mining.
Let's say mining costs rise above profitability. Any slowing in production this causes means a relative increase in demand. That triggers an increase in BTC prices and makes mining profitable again.
There are scenarios where this doesn't work. But as long as the demand is there it will be met.

Your logic is flawed. Mining has no relation to bitcoin price at all. Bitcoin production is stable no matter how many people mine. That is the point of the variable difficulty.

The fact that you used the word logic but misused the word relation (as in correlation) means your reasoning is flawed.  What you probably meant was mining has no causation to BTC price.  Most every long term forum member would agree there is a correlation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient

The BTC is not stable no matter how many people mine (production yes, price no).  That is a fallacy.  If just one person mined with an ASIC back in 2009 while everybody else was on CPUs, that one person would have about 11 million coins now and they would be worthless.  The value of the coin is determined by both miners and the people who accept the coins.  You think BTC would be worth $130USD if just 20 people were mining  Huh Roll Eyes

+1 Agreed

Difficulty drives price...Price drives Difficulty...

This question has been hammered over and over again ...also have seen the results

Heres another piece of info along the same lines... there is no real tangible value to BTC\LTC apart from the amount of energy/equipment/difficulty that is required to produce one..... that is the inherent value of btc\ltc   Cool


OBJECT NOT FOUND
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June 06, 2013, 05:29:57 AM
 #20

I hypothesize that difficulty increase will DOUBLE every 40 days from now until the market is flooded with ASICs

If we use this as a calculation for the difficulty rate in September we get:


15,000,000 x 1.20 ^ 4 =  31,104,000 (difficulty on 16/06/2013)

31,104,000 x 1.40 ^ 4 = 119,489,126 (difficulty on 26/07/2013)

119,489,126 x 1.80 ^ 4 = 1,254, 349,053 (difficulty on 1/09/2013)

These calculations presume that:
120 days till September
12 lots of 10
every 10 days difficulty increases
every 40 days that increase doubles

I hope i am wrong but at these levels even a 350Ghz miner in September wont really be a profitable ROI, even if the price of BTC was 350 USD

EYE




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