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Author Topic: Watching amateur finance types flail  (Read 34452 times)
abednego
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June 29, 2011, 05:52:18 PM
 #261

sorry but bitcoins have a use.  Because of bitcoins I have a capability I did not have before. I can easily send money to someone in a random location on earth with NO logistics troubles other than getting their address.  If you don't think that this marks a major turning point you are simply small minded.

Bitcoin is still an infant, there are big things to come.

Amen brother!  Wink

This is a market and like any other market it goes in cycles.  There will be booms and busts based on people's speculations on where the market is going to go.  Some will be right, some will be wrong, some will profit, some will lose.  Yes, it is a zero sum game and the first step to being successful is to realize that. 

Buy low, sell high, and don't get emotional.  Very few people can take that to a market.  Those can can are called "successful traders."

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Aren't those investing in silver and gold (moreso gold) counting on it's future utility value (currency)? Or is that bullshit too? I suppose you'll say next that BTC is not a store of value like silver and gold is? True but only because a proper amount of time has passed. Silver and gold are largely recognized as they are due to the fact that they were the best alternative.

You have an apt comparison.  These commodities are not at their present value because of their uses in electronics or astronaut visors.  The demand for these industrial uses is not high enough to represent the price.  The excess demand comes from people hedging their capital due to lack of faith in the dollar, equities, and other investments.  These commodities cannot be traded virtually thus are inferior to Bitcoins.  They are only superior in that they have been around for... a couple of years more than Bitcoin  Cool

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bitcola
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June 29, 2011, 06:05:28 PM
 #262

This Nagel is a grade A prick. He comes here and within the first few posts he is countered with several arguments. He addresses barely any of them but spews his own drivel.

As for his "predictions", I'm sure he's gotten plenty wrong too but keeps quiet about that. Anyone can be a doommonger, it proves nothing.

I've seen far more credible anti-BitCoin arguments elsewhere on this board. This guy just shows his lack of understanding. And I say that as someone who is impartial on it, not a miner and actually considered here my most to be anti-bitcoin and/or troll.

Alex Thornton
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June 29, 2011, 06:25:57 PM
 #263

Is this thread long enough yet to include an anology to Nazis and/or Hitler?  Grin

But really, seems like we should just wait a few months and have the market vindicate or disprove the OP.
Nagle
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June 29, 2011, 06:34:37 PM
 #264

As for his "predictions", I'm sure he's gotten plenty wrong too but keeps quiet about that. Anyone can be a doom monger, it proves nothing.
Everything I've written on Downside is still there. It's all in the Internet Archive.  I have a verifiable track record. Do you?
elggawf
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June 29, 2011, 07:56:28 PM
 #265

Aren't those investing in silver and gold (moreso gold) counting on it's future utility value (currency)? Or is that bullshit too? I suppose you'll say next that BTC is not a store of value like silver and gold is? True but only because a proper amount of time has passed. Silver and gold are largely recognized as they are due to the fact that they were the best alternative.

Silver and gold are quite similar to Bitcoins in that sense (the only thing keeping the price high is because of demand, the speculative and/or "store of value" price is far higher than it's utility price, and as others have said in terms of a convenient 21st century currency Bitcoin is far, far more suitable than gold is), however the key thing that pro-BTC people miss when they compare Bitcoins to precious metals is that we've been conditioned for generations to covet precious metals. As I said in another thread (or perhaps earlier in this thread), despite it having absolutely no utilitarian purpose, rich dictators routinely gold plate firearms, because the gold is a symbol of wealth.

Bitcoins do not share these traits - there is no years of conditioning fostering the belief that everyone will want them in the future so you should want them now - the project itself is what, two years old? For that reason, the flimsy promise of "it has nowhere to go but up!" is not really enough to keep people interested. I can see the idea that a store of wealth that can be securely, pseudo-anonymously, and quickly moved around the world is useful, but many outsiders simply see it as a game of hot potato that'll eventually leave someone holding the bag. Why should they volunteer to be a part of the chain, taking the risk they might be the end of it?

A growing economy will start to sway people's minds that maybe the chain doesn't have to end, and do wonders to sure up it's value.

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Real work does need to be done and time needs to pass.  The fact that it's a speculative vehicle doesn't invalidate it. Au contraire, it demonstrates that there's a demand for it. Patience is the key, grasshopper. Trying to rush this into the mainstream is also delusional.

I agree with you in that respect, and I realize it'll take time - I would just like to see more people outside of this forum focusing on building the economy rather than roping in more investors. While it being a speculative vehicle has helped to an extent (giving it a dollar-value people can relate to), it's also hobbled adoption by varying the "value" wildly and been a PR-nightmare because there are many who view it as nothing more than a geek ponzi scheme.

It's my humble opinion the better thing to do to shut those people up is to show them we can build a sustainable economy, rather than telling them "see I told you it would break silver parity".

^_^
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June 29, 2011, 10:14:16 PM
 #266

Is this thread long enough yet to include an anology to Nazis and/or Hitler?  Grin

But really, seems like we should just wait a few months and have the market vindicate or disprove the OP.

Close but not yet.  Maybe I'll sell my radioactive asbestos for BTC.
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June 29, 2011, 11:36:08 PM
 #267

Everything I've written on Downside is still there. It's all in the Internet Archive.  I have a verifiable track record. Do you?

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4.14.2000 - Today begins the Second Great Depression

All bubbles burst. This one just did. The great Internet bubble is over.

First we had Internet companies with no profits. Then we had Internet companies with no revenue. Towards the end, we saw attempts to take public Internet companies with no operations. It had to end, and it just did.

This is healthy. It's not the end of the Internet, just the end of the stupidity. Now we have to get through a return to reality. "Reality", in this context, is a return to historical P/E ratios, in the 6 to 20 range. What about the companies with no earnings? Uh oh. Losing money on every sale and making it up on volume is a joke, not a business plan.

Funny, the Second Great Depression didn't begin on 4.14.2000. Missed that one.
Also, stupidity ended on 4.14.2000? Ever hear of the Option ARM. They were popular til about 2007 - and in most cases were stupid. Heck, ever hear of the housing bubble in general? Plenty of stupidity on display there too.
Returning to historical PE ratios? Apple Inc, quite possibly the most successful company since 4.14.2000 didn't have a P/E ratio below 20 until September 2008 (due to the GFC). Microsoft, who has done only Ok since 4.14.2000 didn't cross below a 20 PE until Jun 2006. IBM (one of the heaviest weighted companies on the DJIA) didn't have a PE <20 until Jun 2005. And it was only in June of 2010 that Google briefly touched below a 20 PE. So why was 4.14.2000 the magical date to return to PE Ratios in the 6-20 range? One would have missed some of the most profitable, fastest growing companies of the decade if they took to heart your view of what "Reality" should look like.

Thankfully, everything you've written on Downside is still in the Internet Archive. It enables people to verify your track record.
And then ignore you.

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June 30, 2011, 12:46:13 AM
 #268

As for his "predictions", I'm sure he's gotten plenty wrong too but keeps quiet about that. Anyone can be a doom monger, it proves nothing.
Everything I've written on Downside is still there. It's all in the Internet Archive.  I have a verifiable track record. Do you?

I too went back in time and randomly pulled up a few archived pages, as the site name "downside" implies, it's all downside predictions, what a depressing life!

One example:
       2003-06-26 - The bottom is still a long way down
This was clearly a start of cyclical bull market (in a secular bear market), it was completely off.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
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June 30, 2011, 01:05:53 AM
 #269

PLEASE let this thread die people!
I cant believe you helped this TROLL this much.

Ellen Alemany
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June 30, 2011, 01:15:07 AM
 #270


"There must be more to life than having everything."
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