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Author Topic: Watching amateur finance types flail  (Read 33776 times)
finnthecelt
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June 24, 2011, 06:59:06 PM
 #21

I see you have the ability to post a candlestick chart, any other analysis besides the usual newbie - "It's a bubble"?

You'd think you were just parroting people in the forums, honestly. I look forward to your next post filled with fundamental and/or technical analysis.



He did recommend a movie back in September...... Gordon Gekko's back!!!
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Torminalis
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June 24, 2011, 06:59:41 PM
 #22

ooo, oo, that looks just like another graph I have seen.



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June 24, 2011, 07:02:11 PM
 #23

Dear John,

you are right on everything. But you forget that we love the idea of a decentralized crypto currency. I don't trust in dollar, yuan or euro. Everyone for a particular reason. The dollar is just printed like the us government needs it. Yuan is good protected and artificial underrated by the chinese government. And the euro isn't safe, because eu isn't really stabilized. Where is the world currency, which we need for a global connected market?
No it isn't bitcoin. But i see it as worldwide crypto currency version 0.1 and somewhere it has to start.

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June 24, 2011, 07:02:45 PM
 #24

one thing is for sure, nobody on this forum is actually good at making money in the real financial market.  If you are good, you would not be here, you would be managing portfolios and dishing out advice for wealthy clients while raking in huge consulting/management fees.

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FlipPro
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June 24, 2011, 07:05:37 PM
 #25

one thing is for sure, nobody on this forum is actually good at making money in the real financial market.  If you are good, you would not be here, you would be managing portfolios and dishing out advice for wealthy clients while raking in huge consulting/management fees.
I think your right, I think most of the people here are expert IT people who understand the technology that is at hand. Sure there can be competing crypto-currency operators who can duplicate our code. Just how gold and silver compete today, we will be the gold standard, and any other crypto currency that trys to ride off our backs will be silver or bronze.

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June 24, 2011, 07:07:09 PM
 #26

However, I think you fail to take into account the rabbid 'fanboy' nature of many people involved in bitcoin.
The "rabid fanboys" certainly do exist, as can be seen from the replies in this thread. To prop up Bitcoin, they have to back their rabid fanaticism with substantial amounts of hard cash.
jerfelix
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June 24, 2011, 07:09:10 PM
 #27

The OP was entertaining, to say the least.

First, you can look at Bitcoins in a lot of ways.  But to compare it to Digicash and Beenz really shows that you haven't done your homework.  Probably a lot like predicting "the dot-com crash over the last Decade".  (That would have been a little more impressive if done in 1998, and not over the last decade.)  Digicash and Beenz have only a very little bit in common with Bitcoin.

If you look at Bitcoins as analogous to the Gold Rush of 1849, it might provide a better parallel.  Early miners made a lot of money, while later miners "made a living".  If you had never heard of a gold rush, and 1849 hit, and you heard of a lot of people getting rich on gold, you (as an uneducated person) might be tempted to buy gold.  This, of course, would be silly, except that a lot of people buying gold drives the price of gold up, and so as gold gets attention, people see that others have made money buying gold, and so you get the bubble.  People buying Bitcoin is a lot like people buying gold in 1849 - it doesn't make a lot of sense, unless you believe that it either is a) a good store of wealth, or b) going to rise in utility /value in the future.

Bitcoin is going to get more attention primarily because it has solved a problem that has never been solved before - Beenz and Digicash didn't solve it.  Paypal and Mastercard didn't solve it.  Cash doesn't solve it.  Bitcoin has a very clever solution to a very difficult problem.  And it's the first to solve it.  So Bitcoin is going to get attention.  And with attention comes investment.  And with investment comes a rise in value.  As long as Bitcoin continues to GROW in the attention it gets, chances are good that people will try to figure out how to invest in it.  And to see that there were only 61,000 accounts in the Mt. Gox leaked database, that shows how truly tiny the Bitcoin community is.  In fact, there were less than 10,000 prior to May 15th or so.

It will take YEARS for the Bitcoin infrastructure to approach that of regular currencies.  That's obvious.

Many people who have taken a close look at Bitcoin from a mathematical standpoint see the beauty of it, and instantly want to "invest".  Unfortunately, there's no "Bitcoin Corp" that is a reasonable investment, so the best they can do is buy the currency.  This will continue until some obvious leader becomes "invest-able" at which time, a significant amount of "Bitcoin speculative investments" will go that route.



Currency speculation isn't the best way to make money in Bitcoin.  Building the infrastructure is.  (There's a reason why the remnants of the Gold Rush of 1849 are Wells Fargo and Levis Jeans.  They made sound investments "around" the gold rush, not in it.)  But there's a short term opportunity to make some cash on speculation, and there's nothing wrong with that.

If Bitcoin reaches Paypal's level of success in a decade, then you can do the math - there's a limited number of Bitcoins, and that number needs to support the sort of environment that Paypal supports.  So that means they will be worth over $100 in about 7.5 years.   Not thousands.  Not mllions.  But between $100 and $200.

But if you build a nice Bitcoin Company that will benefit from this trend, and go public, the public will flock to you (assuming you have a decent plan, and Bitcoins keep gaining in mindshare.)

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June 24, 2011, 07:09:51 PM
 #28

Dear John,

you are right on everything. But you forget that we love the idea of a decentralized crypto currency. I don't trust in dollar, yuan or euro. Everyone for a particular reason. The dollar is just printed like the us government needs it. Yuan is good protected and artificial underrated by the chinese government. And the euro isn't safe, because eu isn't really stabilized. Where is the world currency, which we need for a global connected market?
No it isn't bitcoin. But i see it as worldwide crypto currency version 0.1 and somewhere it has to start.


I think the reason why he's wrong, and your wrong for believing him is because bitcoin is not some type of company, or group of people trying to take advantage of an original idea. I think that bitcoins are a divine currency that everyone has equal access to, whether it's praise or concern, this community proves it. We are all bitcoin, bitcoin isn't some exchanger, or business, or group, bitcoin just is, like the Internet itself. We are creating an entirely new web of powerful encrypted transactions that not even the best hackers in the world can crack. Tell me how that's not value people?


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TraderTimm
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June 24, 2011, 07:10:04 PM
 #29

one thing is for sure, nobody on this forum is actually good at making money in the real financial market.  If you are good, you would not be here, you would be managing portfolios and dishing out advice for wealthy clients while raking in huge consulting/management fees.

Or, you would have made enough to comfortably surf the forums and watch everyone get BTC valuation completely and utterly wrong. I haven't seen so much 'bubble' talk since reading up on the South Sea Trading Company. I wouldn't be in equities if you paid me, because the dollar is about to keel over and die a horrible death. Good luck moving anything out of that deathtrap once it collapses.

That goes for standard banks too, I wouldn't have anything in there you aren't prepared to lose. Because when it happens, you better believe they'll clamp down on anyone pulling out any funds at all.

Best of luck!

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Clipse
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June 24, 2011, 07:10:22 PM
 #30

one thing is for sure, nobody on this forum is actually good at making money in the real financial market.  If you are good, you would not be here, you would be managing portfolios and dishing out advice for wealthy clients while raking in huge consulting/management fees.

Hmm, low startup 100%-1000% profit margins(if you started by early may) compared to high trading startup fiat currency markets ?

This is more fun, more profitable with low startup funds(big margins on trades), damn its so obvious why this is worth doing. I dont say if you succesfully trade other markets that you should invest all your time in bitcoins however investing a few hours a day can bring you alot of profit for very little stress.

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June 24, 2011, 07:11:04 PM
 #31

However, I think you fail to take into account the rabbid 'fanboy' nature of many people involved in bitcoin.
The "rabid fanboys" certainly do exist, as can be seen from the replies in this thread. To prop up Bitcoin, they have to back their rabid fanaticism with substantial amounts of hard cash.
Or talent.

And we are all working as a community to show our talents now that the currency is actually worth something. Go check the developers section. I bet all you finance types NEVER GO THERE.

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btcsquirrel
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June 24, 2011, 07:14:28 PM
 #32

The OP is just trying to drum up traffic to his site.  I'll save you the time ... there's nothing there but Amazon referral links.
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June 24, 2011, 07:14:43 PM
 #33

Digicoin and Beenz failed because they were centralized, and had investments in the technologies and companies themselves.  Bitcoin cannot fail, because the technologies were developed for free and they are decentralized and open source.

It may devalue to the point of buying pizzas with 10k BTC again, but it will never fail completely.  Bitcoin can't file for bankruptcy.
ElectricMonk
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June 24, 2011, 07:16:29 PM
 #34

However, I think you fail to take into account the rabbid 'fanboy' nature of many people involved in bitcoin.
The "rabid fanboys" certainly do exist, as can be seen from the replies in this thread. To prop up Bitcoin, they have to back their rabid fanaticism with substantial amounts of hard cash.

Perhaps we don't like some idiot telling us that we're a bunch of naive, know nothing, amateurs. It's insulting. Not only is it insulting but you're wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong again. You've added nothing new to the debate. You've just offered up the same flimsy arguments that have been trotted out a thousand times already.

The great thing about all this is that one day we'll know what the truth is and we all have an opportunity to put our money where our mouth is. Bitcoin has good fundamentals. If you can understand why that is then buy some and see what happens. If you don't understand why it's unique then don't. Go away if you're not interested in learning.

Nobody is forcing anyone to invest in Bitcoin. What do you hope to achieve here?
CurbsideProphet
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June 24, 2011, 07:19:13 PM
 #35

But if you build a nice Bitcoin Company that will benefit from this trend, and go public, the public will flock to you (assuming you have a decent plan, and Bitcoins keep gaining in mindshare.)

I'm clipping your post but you make a lot of valid arguments.  I think the biggest "infrastructure" Bitcoin needs right now is a reliable and secure exchange.  Somewhere that will provide volume and liquidity while at the same time giving investors confidence that their funds (currency or BTC's) are safe.

The Mickey Mouse exchanges we have in operation right now are just not going to cut it.  The first group to make a legitimate exchange will not only greatly increase Bitcoins chances of survival but likely make a nice profit as well.

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qualia8
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June 24, 2011, 07:23:29 PM
 #36

OP is jealous b/c he struggles against all the other add-no-value-types to beat the S&P, while some risk-taker punks have invented a whole new market right under his nose.  Of course he has to come here and shit on it.
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June 24, 2011, 07:25:22 PM
 #37

Put your money where your mouth is OP - Short BTC if you think it's going to fail.
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June 24, 2011, 07:25:46 PM
 #38

But if you build a nice Bitcoin Company that will benefit from this trend, and go public, the public will flock to you (assuming you have a decent plan, and Bitcoins keep gaining in mindshare.)

I'm clipping your post but you make a lot of valid arguments.  I think the biggest "infrastructure" Bitcoin needs right now is a reliable and secure exchange.  Somewhere that will provide volume and liquidity while at the same time giving investors confidence that their funds (currency or BTC's) are safe.

The Mickey Mouse exchanges we have in operation right now are just not going to cut it.  The first group to make a legitimate exchange will not only greatly increase Bitcoins chances of survival but likely make a nice profit as well.
I think MTGOX will be better than ever when it comes back. They are taking the necessary time it takes to properly secure their website, so the clowning won't happen again. I think its amazing that people think that bitcoins are "invaluable" only because one exchanger gets hacked. Look at the price on Ebay, Bitcoin7, Tradehill, and every other exchanger. It's almost like nothing ever happened. You know WHY? BECAUSE BITCOIN PRICES ARE NOT PEGGED TO ONE EXCHANGER.

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matt_b
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June 24, 2011, 07:27:42 PM
 #39

Third, the organizations in Bitcoin's ecology are very flaky. Mt. Gox is two guys in Tokyo who are in way over their heads. We don't know much about Tradehill, which is somewhere in Chile. Neither of these "exchanges" has a published business address, a Dun and Bradstreet rating, published audits, or regulation as a bank or money transfer firm. Yet they're acting as depository institutions for sizable funds belonging to others.

I've seen several posts that echo this sentiment. What the authors of such threads fail to recognize is that fringe ideas are not embraced by the mainstream. If we all waited for Dun and Bradstreet, Goldman Sachs, etc. to enter the fray, BC would not be a new, radical idea. It would be part of the establishment. Oh course it's going to start off with two guys in the basement on a shoestring budget. How do you think Kinko's got started? Was Linux backed by Microsoft?

I imagine that centuries ago people were saying stuff like "You put your money in a Swiss bank? Are you crazy? Those guys are flakes without any established reputation or credentials."

Is there risk with BC's? Yes! Is there risk with any new, unproven idea? Yes! IMO, the author of this thread misses the whole point of BC's.

Matt
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June 24, 2011, 07:27:58 PM
 #40


First, it looks like a bubble. Here's Bitcoin before the Mt. Gox debacle:



That just screams "bubble" to anyone who's seen one. Bear in mind that the Bitcoin system generates no revenue. All funds must come from new investors. This is not like a startup company. This is a zero-sum game. If you've been in the game for half an hour and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.


Fixed.

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

-Warren Buffett
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