Price perspective

[baronious]

As bitcoin grows bigger, there will be more setbacks caused by governments and such so I don't expect it to gain value at the same rate.

[Indrawan77]

It is not that easy to predict the price and the speculation is only based on one factors there are a lot of factors can determine the price, and there are also the chances the price is dropping, but it is a good information for all of us
I prefer to see the price condition by current situation not based on some past information, because for now the situation is very different

[pooya87]

As bitcoin grows bigger, there will be more setbacks caused by governments and such so I don't expect it to gain value at the same rate.

i disagree.
because first of all bitcoin should be affected less and less by government as it grows bigger. and so far these "set backs" have not been caused by the government at all. each and every one of them has been because of how the market itself and all the weak hands in it have reacted to some dumb news (FUD).

for example earlier this year when price broke $1200 resistance a new FUD started about BU breaking bitcoin and splitting it and killing it, ... blah blah! and price tanked hard to $890ish. and there are lots more of these. are you calling them "government effect?

but as the market grows bigger, the resistances also become bigger. less weak hands or at least they will be smaller percentage of the market so their idiotic panic won't cause big dips.

[jackhdt]

As bitcoin grows bigger, there will be more setbacks caused by governments and such so I don't expect it to gain value at the same rate.

i disagree.
because first of all bitcoin should be affected less and less by government as it grows bigger. and so far these "set backs" have not been caused by the government at all. each and every one of them has been because of how the market itself and all the weak hands in it have reacted to some dumb news (FUD).

for example earlier this year when price broke $1200 resistance a new FUD started about BU breaking bitcoin and splitting it and killing it, ... blah blah! and price tanked hard to $890ish. and there are lots more of these. are you calling them "government effect?

but as the market grows bigger, the resistances also become bigger. less weak hands or at least they will be smaller percentage of the market so their idiotic panic won't cause big dips.

I totally agree. bitcoin will be less affected by the future Government and it will grow bigger. Bitcoin current price is only affected by its owners

[michellee]

it is good calculation but the price is not to easy to be predicted as we are know that bitcoin price is changing every time. but at least we can know the increasing bitcoin price from time to time. we need more time to see the price is increase but yes we are on the way to go that price. I think its better if we do the best we can to collect more bitcoin so when the price is increase, we have our bitcoin ready to sell and help us to make profit.

[hangar18]

it is good calculation but the price is not to easy to be predicted as we are know that bitcoin price is changing every time. but at least we can know the increasing bitcoin price from time to time. we need more time to see the price is increase but yes we are on the way to go that price. I think its better if we do the best we can to collect more bitcoin so when the price is increase, we have our bitcoin ready to sell and help us to make profit.

It not hard if you create a small target, only by you very greedy and want to earn a large amount of money from an order. I usually set ratio ~2-10% and depends on the supply and demand on the market.

[magneto]

So if i interpreted the OP correctly you are saying that bitcoin will never return to the $3000 level once it falls back to something like $1.5k-$2.5k? I don't think this is likely, as bitcoin prices usually at LEAST triple over a 4 year period(at around halving time).

In between these halvings are usually bear markets which i think is well possible after this year. We could potentially see further dumps that drive price below $3k, but not this year imo.

Short term we might see some more gains, medium term 1-2 years we may turn bearish for a bit but long term we should still be going up.

[RejectedBanana]

So if i interpreted the OP correctly you are saying that bitcoin will never return to the $3000 level once it falls back to something like $1.5k-$2.5k? I don't think this is likely, as bitcoin prices usually at LEAST triple over a 4 year period(at around halving time).

In between these halvings are usually bear markets which i think is well possible after this year. We could potentially see further dumps that drive price below $3k, but not this year imo.

Short term we might see some more gains, medium term 1-2 years we may turn bearish for a bit but long term we should still be going up.

No, I was thinking after another couple months hovering in the $3xxxs, that it will rise and never fall below $4000 again. A new floor. I agree that a mini bear market might be forthcoming, but I don't think we'll fall too much below $4000, not with Wall Street and more countries gearing up involvement into 2018.  I certainly don't think we'll ever fall below $2000 again and $3000 might be a stretch too.

[pitham1]

I think the next real level to watch out will be $10k. Now we don't really remember the movement from $300 to $400. Soon all these short term pull backs won't matter.

[investeerder]

So if i interpreted the OP correctly you are saying that bitcoin will never return to the $3000 level once it falls back to something like $1.5k-$2.5k? I don't think this is likely, as bitcoin prices usually at LEAST triple over a 4 year period(at around halving time).

In between these halvings are usually bear markets which i think is well possible after this year. We could potentially see further dumps that drive price below $3k, but not this year imo.

Short term we might see some more gains, medium term 1-2 years we may turn bearish for a bit but long term we should still be going up.

No, I was thinking after another couple months hovering in the $3xxxs, that it will rise and never fall below $4000 again. A new floor. I agree that a mini bear market might be forthcoming, but I don't think we'll fall too much below $4000, not with Wall Street and more countries gearing up involvement into 2018.  I certainly don't think we'll ever fall below $2000 again and $3000 might be a stretch too.

I'm expecting that by this October the price of bitcoin can able to reach for 4000$ again and look for the price of it right now it almost reaching for 4000$ and just a few bucks away before to be happen. And We have a good basis on it since maybe the Chine issues will be shut off for this month and those whales will buy more.

[RejectedBanana]

Goodbye $3xxx?? Not even Oct yet.

[Kronos21]

OP, I know where you're coming from, but all of these price projections are based on past information.  This is the whole reason why I don't subscribe to technical analysis--you're looking at past price movements and hoping(!) that patterns repeat themselves.  And they most often do not.

Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors.  None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts.  None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet.  That tells me that TA doesn't work.  So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.

It seems to me that all price spikes are signs of artificial origin. No one can predict the behavior of whales in the market. Bitcoin is a Paradise for speculators. Everyone is trying to get rich on this oblivious to the fact that if the uncontrolled bubble to inflate it can burst.

[nizamcc]

Goodbye $3xxx?? Not even Oct yet.

Why not? 3k was never meant to be touched but it was all a shift of money through Chinese investors which made all this occur.
But as the saying goes, after a storm comes a calm and so, other countries managed to deprive their effect by continuously buying back cheap coins they knew that won't be there for long. It was a delightful treat to those who bought at those prices because I feel this won't be coming now and till forever.

[RejectedBanana]

The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012, now in more precise graphical form on a log-linear plot using Bitstamp pricing. I arbitrarily chose base 5 because it fits this plot well. Base 2 would have the same number of doublings.

Average doubling time: 6 months
Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40)
Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160)

The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet.

At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork and China FUD having much of an impact at all.

[forkchain]

I think the next real level to watch out will be $10k. Now we don't really remember the movement from $300 to $400. Soon all these short term pull backs won't matter.

10,000$ is really near because it will go to 10,000 soon like we can say that it will go in December because bitcoin is looking to give a gift to it's users so keep calm and watch the gift of bitcoin.

[mostkey]

Goodbye $3xxx?? Not even Oct yet.

Why not? 3k was never meant to be touched but it was all a shift of money through Chinese investors which made all this occur.
But as the saying goes, after a storm comes a calm and so, other countries managed to deprive their effect by continuously buying back cheap coins they knew that won't be there for long. It was a delightful treat to those who bought at those prices because I feel this won't be coming now and till forever.

it's true, the storm must pass, after a few weeks of bitcoin in the crisis crisis with the price dropping drastically and it's back on track, when the big whales are coming in to adopt bitcoin, this will reflect very successfully for those who buy at the lowest price in the week then

[thecodebear]

Let's project.

Average "permanent" doubling time over the last 5 years is just over 6 months. This includes a 2 year doubling from $100 to $250 in 2013 to 2015.

Price has remained above $2500 since: July 2017 (May still be tested.)
Will remain above $5000: Jan 2018
$10,000: July 2018
$20,000: Jan 2019
$40,000: July 2019
$80,000: Jan 2020

To be conservative, if average doubling time doubles to 1 year instead (which seems silly considering the doubling trend has been halving the last couple years), then:

Price will remain above $5000: July 2018
$10,000: July 2019
$20,000: July 2020
$40,000: July 2021
$80,000: July 2022

And if we project the longest doubling time of 2 years henceforth:

Price will remain above $5000: July 2019
$10,000: July 2021
$20,000: July 2023
$40,000: July 2025
$80,000: July 2027

Frankly, I'd be happy with any of these scenarios.

Sweet doubling graph!

For the above predictions, I think likely something between the first and second prediction will occur in the coming years. i.e. passing $40k for the last time in 2020 and passing $80k for the last time in 2021.

Overall great predictions and charts and whatnot!

[onrise]

Goodbye $3xxx?? Not even Oct yet.

Yes we have reached and crossed 4k in Sept itself and 3 days to go before if can see another 200-300 $ movement in coming days means we should be near 4500$ in the Oct beginning. Hope so this upward is not just for short time and falls back due to China or some other country again.

[RejectedBanana]

It's only been a month since I last posted this chart.  As long as 5120 holds, we are looking at another floor-to-floor doubling in only 11 weeks.

The floor-to-floor doubling from 1280 to 2560 took 13 weeks.

The price has remained above 5000 for 14 days.

The price has been above 6000 only 4 days.

Does that make 5500 feel a little better?

At this rate, $10,000 floor for the New Year?  

[Barbarian]

Here's some healthy price perspective for you...

Approximate time BTC price has been between:

     0-$1000: 8 years
$1000-2000: 5 months
$2000-3000: 11 weeks
$3000-4000: 26 days (or only 16 days leading up to Sept 1 ATH, pre-"China FUD")
$4000-5000: 37 days

Talk about an exponential time series... Personally, I think Bitcoin owes $3xxx at least another month or two before waving goodbye forever.

Nice with the words right there and you are predicting that bitcoin will be bye bye after only two months? where is your proof saying such FUD on this forum, you yourself are talking about the price of bitcoin on the many years right now and you are thinking that bitcoin's going to end that way? well I will tell you that bitcoin's price on the upcoming 3 years will be $100,000 mark value and nothing can stop it, but the fake news that have been rising recently have ruining the bitcoin's value and as of now the value is at $3600 and resisting to go up for now.

He is not saying that bitcoin is going to end, he is saying that bitcoin needed to be in the range of 3000 dollars for a longer period of time, it was not FUD it was just an observation based on the numbers he is crunching to be honest I found the post very interesting and I like it a lot.