This week has given me pause: I'm getting out of BTC

[Biomech]

FED is going to end its QEI sometime during this year, that will also impact the available risk capital in the market

Not a chance.  They might scale it back but they won't pull the rug from under the house of cards.  They're going to keep printing because it's all they know.

I think you're right. In fact, as long as Alan Greenspan's hand picked dick sucker clone mini-me successor is the head of the Fed, it's pretty well guaranteed. But the last time they came to this loggerheads and started pissing their pants they got Paul Volker. It could happen again. The Dollar has (so far) been absolutely the most successful long con in history.

If they're going to keep it running longer, they have to raise interest rates and slow inflation at some relatively near point. Bernanke ain't got the balls to do it, but there are others who might. Obama isn't the sharpest economic tool in the shed, but he is astute at reading the writing on the wall. Never count out the Imperial ability to spin and duck.

Of course, there is one other way to prop up the dollar and still inflate. Another two branches of goverment, one euphemistically called 'defense' and the other called Intelligence, have been setting the stage for world war III for some time. If they choose that option, this time the USA will be Germany. Since it's military presence is already global, that could be real ugly, but it would postpone the destruction of the dollar. It also is EASY to raise the apathy of the American public to bloodlust without thought. Anyone who don't believe me, just look at the evidence from September 12, 2001.

I frankly think that overt attacks on the bitcoin are unlikely at this time. Regulatory horseshit like what they've done to Mt. Gox, yes. They'll make the big exchanges play ball. But that doesn't change a lot, and in some ways makes it easier to subvert and or bypass the dollar economy. I suspect that such attacks will strengthen the bitcoin, and perhaps some of it's variants as well. I'm long on this one.

The problem with Bernanke, from day one, is that he's fighting the wrong war.  He's a student of the Great Depression (liquidity crisis) and is very well versed in how to combat this problem, however, this is not the problem we are facing today.  We have a problem of solvency, not liquidity, which is why all this money printing is doing nothing to help the situation.  He mistakenly thinks he's fighting the same war but this is an entirely different animal.  It would be similar to thinking because water put out a house fire, now I should use water on this grease fire.  All fires are not the same and in the case of a grease fire, water actually makes things worse.  Maybe his successor will realize this but I'm not very hopeful.

LMFAO@ the grease fire analogy. Well put, sir, well put.

As to the last, I'm very hopeful. I am hoping you are right, as the failure of the dollar is also the failure of the Empire that backs it. There will come a point, as there has in every other fiat money regime, when the merchants will say "fuck the legal tender laws" and refuse to do business in USD. That point, not the bonds, inflation, deflation, miscegenation, ad nauseam from DC is what will end the dollar. Then, if history is to be believed, a hard money standard will likely emerge once again. Bitcoin is the only real variable I see in that. It's neither hard money OR government fiat. It might have a REALLY important future.

[ScaryHash]

What are they actually going to confiscate?  A string of numbers on your computer in a "wallet" file?

You don't have to convert the BTC into a US currency. You can convert the BTC into a non-US currency.

If you can get a foreign bank account, transfer it there, take the money out yourself, and convert it to US currency at a regular money changer.

Or, wire it to a trusted friend in a foreign country, and the friend can convert it for you.

Pretty simple.

[KSV]

So you react to the confiscation threats of a cash strapped government by transferring your assets into a highly confiscable form.

Makes sense 

exactly . . . care to explain why? would be really interesting to hear

[Spendulus]

....

The problem with Bernanke, from day one, is that he's fighting the wrong war.  He's a student of the Great Depression (liquidity crisis) and is very well versed in how to combat this problem, however, this is not the problem we are facing today.  We have a problem of solvency, not liquidity, which is why all this money printing is doing nothing to help the situation.  He mistakenly thinks he's fighting the same war but this is an entirely different animal.  It would be similar to thinking because water put out a house fire, now I should use water on this grease fire.  All fires are not the same and in the case of a grease fire, water actually makes things worse.  Maybe his successor will realize this but I'm not very hopeful.

Meanwhile they took over both home and student loans and nobody blinked.

Now interest from that debt base is real money, a lot better than nominal income from T bills.  And it's so easy to take over one or another chunks of private lending with printed money, then site back and enjoy those income streams.

Life is good.

[glendall]

Personally I think it's good time to buy coins.

OP's points are valid and make sense but I see things differently. The payment processors shut down is a set back, but not 'the end', by a long shot.  For example, currently I can buy coins with cash quite easily through a bank deposit method. A couple of hours and Bitcoins.  If I wanted to sell BTC for fiat, I could also withdraw to my bank account or sell OTC locally.

I sort of thing the American gov' resisting Bitcoin will help the currency in some ways. And it's next to impossible to stamp it out.

Not sure about this one, but maybe with increased difficulty of fiat/BTC exchange payment processors, perhaps it will cut down on the market speculation as well, making the price of BTC more stable, which will happen it gain traction as a currency.

Maybe the OP is just (understandably) tired of all after 2 years.  Like if you look at it another way, BTC has come a long way, and is in much better shape, than it was 2 years ago.

[AliceWonder]

Been there done that, I was anticipating the crash in December last year. (I was only 4 months out - not to mention one order of magnitude off)

My advice please just save 10% of your coins.

Also if you want to help Bitcoin develop, you should be using some of it in transactions (for things you would buy anyway using fiat where there are Bitcoin alternatives.)  Not just trading or saving it.

This. Assuming you can find businesses that take them.

[vokain]

Been there done that, I was anticipating the crash in December last year. (I was only 4 months out - not to mention one order of magnitude off)

My advice please just save 10% of your coins.

Also if you want to help Bitcoin develop, you should be using some of it in transactions (for things you would buy anyway using fiat where there are Bitcoin alternatives.)  Not just trading or saving it.

This. Assuming you can find businesses that take them.

In my narrow (though growing) network of friends with bitcoin we square off our debts in bitcoin. I actually have had new people adopt bitcoins after offering to pay them in btc. Love it!

[BitAddict]

I might be on the same boat if it wasn't for all the VC money pouring in to Bitcoin startups.  VC's have a good eye for "the next big thing", so I'm going to follow their lead on this.

+1

Of course maybe you can win more money just selling now and buying at $70, $50 or $30 (if we get there) but if you believe in the long term of bitcoin is better just to stick in, unless you really know what are you doing.

Right now fiat is crashing, is matter of time we have another news like Cyprus.
Or new decentraliced p2p exchange, etc

[Spendulus]

I might be on the same boat if it wasn't for all the VC money pouring in to Bitcoin startups.  VC's have a good eye for "the next big thing", so I'm going to follow their lead on this.

+1

Of course maybe you can win more money just selling now and buying at $70, $50 or $30 (if we get there) but if you believe in the long term of bitcoin is better just to stick in, unless you really know what are you doing.

Right now fiat is crashing, is matter of time we have another news like Cyprus.
Or new decentraliced p2p exchange, etc

Good perspective.

Let's recap.

People bitching and fucking moaning about bitcoin volatility.

Meanwhile fiat is rock steady...steady....steady as she goes...ride her on down....down...down...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIBTg7q9oNc

[freedomno1]

I've had a lot of fun (and made a lot of money) trading BTC for the past 2 years.  However, this month and specifically this week has given me pause.  I know the Bitcoin bulls will flame me but I am starting to feel the quakes of a major shakeup coming.  It's something we've all been aware of since the dawn of BTC...

Quoted from my blog http://www.adventcarraig.com/2013/05/30/bitcoin-concerns/:
 I still want to trade it for fun and proof of concept that it is a financial instrument but I have been given pause by current events.

In ghostly voice come back the price is down you can play with it more

[Rygon]

Been there done that, I was anticipating the crash in December last year. (I was only 4 months out - not to mention one order of magnitude off)

My advice please just save 10% of your coins.

Also if you want to help Bitcoin develop, you should be using some of it in transactions (for things you would buy anyway using fiat where there are Bitcoin alternatives.)  Not just trading or saving it.

This. Assuming you can find businesses that take them.

The Gyft application allows anyone to buy gift cards to Amazon, Lowes, and Burger King with Bitcoin. Even though it would be nice to have those businesses directly take BTC, that's good enough for me.

[xavier]

We are entering a new phase of bitcoin's evolution - bitcoin 2.0.

The key themes to categorize this step:

* Bitcoin mixes with government: Remember, the government can do *nothing* to stop this technology. They will not be able to stop it. Even if they close down the exchanges, they cannot stop this technology.

* Bitcoin technology evolves: We have an issue with the block size algorithm. This is the first major technical challenge with bitcoin. The block size needs to be raised. This will be a test of the community and whether it can successfully navigate this change.

Through this stage of evolution, I see some great opportunities to buy in at prices alot lower than $110 (current price). Patience will be a key asset for any investor.

My opinion is, bitcoin will pull through these challenges. Specifically the government threat to bitcoin - I don't see this having much of an effect on the price. We have already seen that bitcoin is resilient to problems with the exchanges. Remember, this technology is global - there is no single government that can stop it.

If anything I see government intervention having a positive effect - as it brings more publicity to bitcoin and puts it more into the mainstream.

I understand why people are selling, because the investment case/"risks" now - in 2.0 - is different to how it was 1 year ago, for example. However I believe bitcoin has truely progressed alot since last year - I see only positive factors in the months & years ahead. Rememebr, patience is the name of the game here! Believe me, prices will come down in the coming months as more investors look to get out of bitcoin because of the reasons discussed.

[freedomno1]

We are entering a new phase of bitcoin's evolution - bitcoin 2.0.

The key themes to categorize this step:

* Bitcoin mixes with government: Remember, the government can do *nothing* to stop this technology. They will not be able to stop it. Even if they close down the exchanges, they cannot stop this technology.

* Bitcoin technology evolves: We have an issue with the block size algorithm. This is the first major technical challenge with bitcoin. The block size needs to be raised. This will be a test of the community and whether it can successfully navigate this change.

Through this stage of evolution, I see some great opportunities to buy in at prices alot lower than $110 (current price). Patience will be a key asset for any investor.

My opinion is, bitcoin will pull through these challenges. Specifically the government threat to bitcoin - I don't see this having much of an effect on the price. We have already seen that bitcoin is resilient to problems with the exchanges. Remember, this technology is global - there is no single government that can stop it.

If anything I see government intervention having a positive effect - as it brings more publicity to bitcoin and puts it more into the mainstream.

I understand why people are selling, because the investment case/"risks" now - in 2.0 - is different to how it was 1 year ago, for example. However I believe bitcoin has truely progressed alot since last year - I see only positive factors in the months & years ahead. Rememebr, patience is the name of the game here! Believe me, prices will come down in the coming months as more investors look to get out of bitcoin because of the reasons discussed.

#1
Agree and disagree needs tax rules maybe but let it be independent it's beyond any one governments technical jurisdictional rule

#2
Hopefully see it in 6 mo to a year
Ultimate Blockchain Compression that and there are some smart developers out there

Disagree on price collapsing but we will see it move still correlated with peoples interest
That said this time-frame is pretty long we might both be right on this one XD