Area under the 2013 exponential trendline is nearing the area above it

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I take this to mean the bubble grief has almost bled out and we are close to reverting to the exponential growth trendline that started in January.

[Pruden]

Bid sum in MtGox has lost 25% of its strength in the past couple of weeks and keeps going down. There is nothing coiled.

While my prediction for <105$ within this week was admitedly an exageration (at least it got me a quote by smoothie  ), the price is not going up anytime soon.

[Birdy]

Bid sum in MtGox has lost 25% of its strength in the past couple of weeks and keeps going down. There is nothing coiled.

This is most likely money moving away from Gox to other exchanges.

[ask]

No.

People have decided to hold their BTCs as a long time investment. They moved bitcoins to their paper wallets.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Bid sum in MtGox has lost 25% of its strength in the past couple of weeks and keeps going down. There is nothing coiled.

Low volume is what you'd expect during stable periods.

While my prediction for <105$ within this week was admitedly an exageration (at least it got me a quote by smoothie  ), the price is not going up anytime soon.

Pruden = Proudhon?

[Miz4r]

I think we'll be stable for a while, until good or bad news hits and the market is able to decide which way to go from here. Could be wrong though, you never know with bitcoin.

[marvinrouge]

What about another scale ?

The current trend fits perfectly the historic trendline

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

That chart looks way more short-term bullish than mine. It makes this latest "bubble" look like nothing more than a warm-up.

[BitcoinAshley]

Keep dreaming... the historical trendline looks more likely. I doubt we'll see a return to the 2013 exp. line anytime soon.

I'm still extremely bullish, don't get me wrong.

As for Gox volume, chances are people are just moving to other exchanges or OTC rather than actually leaving Bitcoin altogether. And as has been said, low volume during stable periods is completely normal. Not very many people want to trade on swings when the swings are only $1-2 dollars at a time.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

The historical trend means only around $500/BTC at the end of the year, which is a lot less than the $10,000/BTC we'd have if we continued with the 2013 trendline.

I feel pretty safe then saying that the price will rise by somewhere between 4x and 100x by year-end.

[Zaih]

I fail to see how this really means much, but I'll trust you smart people

Go Bitcoin, go!

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

It's speculation using historical trends of varying lengths to try to find some kind of usable pattern in the price action.

At any given time, an ongoing trend is more likely to continue than not (thus the old investment adage, "The trend is your friend"). So there is a lot of interest in identifying what "the" trend is. People present different trends and try to explain why they think the price is tracking their trend and what might have triggered that trend. Trends can be multilayered; there can be trends within trends (within trends).

In this case we had a remarkably steady, clear trend of fast exponential growth from mid-January until April. Just a few weeks after it started, I asked what might happen if it were to continue, then in mid-February I extrapolated that trend to predict $100 by the end of April even though a bitcoin was only $25 at the time.

Then the bubble started it onto double-exponential (exponential growth in the rate of price growth, rather than just exponential growth in price) and went way above the trendline, exceeding even my incredibly bullish predictions that were laughed at. That was great for a while, but then the bubble popped and the price fell quite a ways below the trendline. What now?

Well the question arises: Are we still following that same trend? Right now we are well below the trendline, so it could be argued the technical damage from the bubble broke whatever fundamental reason that was driving the exponential growth since mid-January. However, it can alternatively be argued that it is pointless to say we are no longer tracking the trendline when we haven't been below the trendline any more than we've been above it (the green and red regions in the first graph are about equal). It could be argued that we should at least wait until we've been below the trendline for a lot longer than we were above it before we start to wonder if the 2013 exponential growth trend has been broken.

Moreover, if we go with the assumption that the trend will continue (since "the trend is your friend"), then the fact that we've spent this much time this far below the trendline indicates we are likely to go higher in the coming weeks. Conversely, if we spend a lot more time below the trendline, it would give reason to start to doubt the 2013 trendline, perhaps reverting to the historical trendline posted above.

[michaelGedi]

the trend is my friend

[byronbb]

I am feeling bearish because fiat is running from Gox. "Regulation" scares are not helpful. However, every time a ton of hash has hit the network we have seen a good jump in price. Who knows.

But setting trends from the start of bitcoin life is ridiculous. You can't draw conclusions from a sub million dollar bitcoin market and extrapolate it to the present at a billion plus; that's like comparing starbucks in 1985 to now.... Trends in the bitcoin market are generally specious because market fundamentals can change on a dime.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Bid sum in MtGox has lost 25% of its strength in the past couple of weeks and keeps going down. There is nothing coiled.

Ask sum has as well.  MtGox has lost about 20% marketshare in the past couple weeks too.

Now if you had a combined order book of all exchanges and the combined bid sum lost more than the combined ask sum then you might be on to something.

[michaelGedi]

Bid sum in MtGox has lost 25% of its strength in the past couple of weeks and keeps going down. There is nothing coiled.

Ask sum has as well.  MtGox has lost about 20% marketshare in the past couple weeks too.

Now if you had a combined order book of all exchanges and the combined bid sum lost more than the combined ask sum then you might be on to something.

coinsetter looking to fix that?

[afbitcoins]

Its a nice chart, we need a pretty steep and sudden rise to get back to the trendline though which doesnt look like itll happen to me. Enthusiasm has been damped a fair bit by the big price drop.

[afbitcoins]

I tend to use the price quoted on MtGox to be a good representation of the entire bitcoin economy. Maybe the day is coming that we need a new way of determining the overall market price. If people are leaving MtGox but stil actively buying and selling bitcoins by other means then thats a very healthy thing.

[MAbtc]

So much grasping at straws around here

[Miz4r]

So much grasping at straws around here

Welcome to the speculation forum...