Area under the 2013 exponential trendline is nearing the area above it

[Elwar]

I take this to mean the bubble grief has almost bled out and we are close to reverting to the exponential growth trendline that started in January.

Umm, how is that nearing the area above it? The trend line keeps going up and the price is over $100 away from catching up.

Looking at the long term trend from early bitcoin to today would indicate we are just about at the right price being in the low 100s. The bubble action was fun but it appears that we have returned to where we would have been without the spike. Which is healthy.

The lack of volatility will be a self fulfilling prophecy in that we will have less wild swings because the day traders are sidelined at the moment. At least the people who think they are day traders because they got a couple of good gambles while the price was flying all over the place. Volume should go down and we will return to business as usual.

Now people need to focus on creating Bitcoin businesses to make money instead of trying to gamble. Which will help the price in the long run.

A good 5-10% per month rise will be about right. Though as the volume falls, you will be able to see the big money movers come in once in a while and throw things one way or the other on their own terms.

[ThatDGuy]

I take this to mean the bubble grief has almost bled out and we are close to reverting to the exponential growth trendline that started in January.

Umm, how is that nearing the area above it? The trend line keeps going up and the price is over $100 away from catching up.

Looking at the long term trend from early bitcoin to today would indicate we are just about at the right price being in the low 100s. The bubble action was fun but it appears that we have returned to where we would have been without the spike. Which is healthy.

The lack of volatility will be a self fulfilling prophecy in that we will have less wild swings because the day traders are sidelined at the moment. At least the people who think they are day traders because they got a couple of good gambles while the price was flying all over the place. Volume should go down and we will return to business as usual.

Now people need to focus on creating Bitcoin businesses to make money instead of trying to gamble. Which will help the price in the long run.

A good 5-10% per month rise will be about right. Though as the volume falls, you will be able to see the big money movers come in once in a while and throw things one way or the other on their own terms.

Really great analysis.  I think with the recent exposure though and increased overall consciousness about BTC, even a consecutive month or two of 5-10% could be sufficient impetus for another hype cycle with a greater volume from speculators.

[Spekulatius]

I take this to mean the bubble grief has almost bled out and we are close to reverting to the exponential growth trendline that started in January.

Can you give some kind of citation for your charting technique? Ive never heard of it before.

[MAbtc]

So much grasping at straws around here

Yep, we are grasping at straws for 4+ years now, 100000% ROI so far. Do show us errors of our ways.

Nice strawman. Pointing out that an analysis is baseless isn't attacking your perma-bull position. (That is for another thread.)

[BitcoinAshley]

The only straw-grasping here is the fellow who said "Gox ask sum is declining!" while cleverly neglecting to mention that Gox bid sum along with total Gox market share is also declining. 

Oversight, or intentional trollage? You decide.

[Pruden]

BitcoinAshley, you might be confusing ask and bids.

Bid sum in MtGox has lost 25% of its strength in the past couple of weeks and keeps going down. There is nothing coiled.

Ask sum has as well.  MtGox has lost about 20% marketshare in the past couple weeks too.

Still around 65%, give or take a couple points. As soon as movement begins, MtGox sees volume increments much bigger than other exchanges

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

Aaaaaaaand Bitcoin closes the month lower than it started. What didn't happen in April, with the crash right in the middle of the month, has happened now for the first time since october. I'll let wise people draw conclusions on that, can't decide if it signals better times ahead or the opposite.

[Miz4r]

Aaaaaaaand Bitcoin closes the month lower than it started. What didn't happen in April, with the crash right in the middle of the month, has happened now for the first time since october. I'll let wise people draw conclusions on that, can't decide if it signals better times ahead or the opposite.

It signals nothing, the beginning and end of the month are just two random data points, you need to look at the entire picture.

[Elwar]

I wouldn't get too emotionally attached to a single prior trendline. 

This. Bill Gates thinking tomorrow that it would be good to have a million bitcoins is not considering any trendlines.

Gavin deciding tomorrow that he has enough bitcoins to pay off the mortgage on his house is not following trendlines.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I tend to use the price quoted on MtGox to be a good representation of the entire bitcoin economy. Maybe the day is coming that we need a new way of determining the overall market price. If people are leaving MtGox but stil actively buying and selling bitcoins by other means then thats a very healthy thing.

We need a weighted average price from all the major exchanges.

It's not so much that this price woud be more useful (it'd be almost the same as the MtGox price usually), but that by popularizing this as the standard it would help dethrone MtGox at the standardbearer, aiding in much-needed decentralization.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I take this to mean the bubble grief has almost bled out and we are close to reverting to the exponential growth trendline that started in January.

Umm, how is that nearing the area above it? The trend line keeps going up and the price is over $100 away from catching up.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area

This isn't any kind of charting technique. I'm simply point out that it's premature to call the end of the trend when we've been above it just as much as below it. It's expected that the bubble will result in a lull of some degree of protractedness. I'm not saying the trend will continue, but that there's no particular reason based on the price data itself to believe it won't.

The comment about grasping at straws is especially ironic, because the OP was intended exactly to prevent people from grasping at straws to declare the trend as over. It may be over, but the mere fact that we happen to be below it now does not imply that, any more than the fact that we happened to be above a few weeks ago - especially since we've not even been below it any more than we've been above it.

[ManBearPig]

Most of my coins are in cold storage apart from a few as play money and that means AWAY from Gox so certainly I'm not contributing the Bid sum.

We are most definitely in post-crash territory when it comes to TA, Tabula Rasa as they say. The last 6 weeks are the basis by which we can judge BTC meaningfully. Any future exponential growth will NOT be a continuation of any existing line; it will start from a new point but the maths we used to judge it as a bubble will be the same.

The most fundamental bullish sign is we are not under $100 right now.

BTC has got some hibernating to do while it becomes leaner, more legal and gets out of the Fed's gunsights. Also while other exchanges relieve MtGox of the mantle of being the main place to trade it. Any spike won't happen day-to-day, those getting into 2013's bubble had plenty of time buy in at a price/risk ratio that suited them.

There's crumbs to be had from day trading I suppose.

My position at the moment:
I'm 90% cold storage BTC, 10% fiat on an exchange which isn't Gox. I'm tempted to sell 10% more for a minor buying opp a little lower. I now consider all the altcoins junk, even LTC but will eat humble pie if LTC ever makes $10.

[Adrian-x]

Bid sum in MtGox has lost 25% of its strength in the past couple of weeks and keeps going down. There is nothing coiled.

Ask sum has as well.  MtGox has lost about 20% marketshare in the past couple weeks too.

Now if you had a combined order book of all exchanges and the combined bid sum lost more than the combined ask sum then you might be on to something.

I've been thinking about making this since the MtGox huge lag and the correction, this is what speculators need, not to follow the exchange with the most liquidity (when it freezes up) but to follow the global combined liquidity of all exchanges.

[notme]

It's speculation using historical trends of varying lengths to try to find some kind of usable pattern in the price action.

At any given time, an ongoing trend is more likely to continue than not.

No.  Most of the time, yes.  But sometimes there is a reversal pattern staring you in the face and at those times the ongoing trend is less likely to continue.

[Adrian-x]

It's speculation using historical trends of varying lengths to try to find some kind of usable pattern in the price action.

At any given time, an ongoing trend is more likely to continue than not.

No.  Most of the time, yes.  But sometimes there is a reversal pattern staring you in the face and at those times the ongoing trend is less likely to continue.

Lol in English it's going up until it starts going down. I Can't see TA predicting the benchmark events that triggers either trend.