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cilphex (OP)
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May 31, 2013, 06:58:00 PM |
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 We have fallen below regular logarithmic growth. What do you think? |
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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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BitChick
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Activity: 1148
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May 31, 2013, 06:59:42 PM |
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Bitcoin is now undervalued.  Probably people are cautious after the Liberty Reserve news. I am not sure. I am just thankful for a little stability in spite of all the news lately. It seems the positive and negative news seems to balance it all out for now. |
1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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cilphex (OP)
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May 31, 2013, 07:02:42 PM |
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Undervalued is also a possibility, yeah.
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Dalib
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May 31, 2013, 07:09:24 PM |
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it looks different when you look at the longer term  |
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cilphex (OP)
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May 31, 2013, 07:18:15 PM |
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Good point. It's kinda hard to determine which term length is the right one though. Should all history necessarily be considered? If not, what part of it is relevant? I'm not completely sure.
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Dalib
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May 31, 2013, 07:37:12 PM |
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Good point. It's kinda hard to determine which term length is the right one though. Should all history necessarily be considered? If not, what part of it is relevant? I'm not completely sure.
In any case, I do not expect the pace of development such as five months of this year will be stable for several years |
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BitcoinAshley
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May 31, 2013, 08:23:43 PM |
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Yes, we are below certain trendlines (The one in OP's chart) and right on others (the long-term trendline), and above still others. So depending on which chart you look at, we are due for a rocket rally, a steady course, or a massive correction.
It's bitcoin. Who knows? All I know is it's been stable for a while, which in Bitcoinworld, is good.
(Unless you're a butthurt bear who gets bored when price doesn't move more than $2/day, and starts posting about "everyone's going to get bored and start selling" after spending the last 2 months complaining about speculative investment.)
The only thing the charts can definitely tell us right now is that it's stable. People are happy that it's stable. They're less happy than if it were increasing, but more happy than if price were tanking. They're not going to get bored and sell back into fiat due to lack of volatility, lol. A lot of people are in Bitcoin not just as a speculative instrument or a way to buy goods/services, but also as a long-term store of value that is not guaranteed to depreciate like fiat currencies.
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wopwop
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May 31, 2013, 08:27:22 PM |
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you can bend charts any way you like fools
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mgio
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May 31, 2013, 09:15:38 PM |
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Good point. It's kinda hard to determine which term length is the right one though. Should all history necessarily be considered? If not, what part of it is relevant? I'm not completely sure.
The answer is none of it. You can't predict future price that way. |
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Crypt_Current
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May 31, 2013, 09:41:21 PM |
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"Growth" according to google trends etc follows price, and since price has been consolidating the past few weeks (to the average investor / trader, this may look like "stagnation"), the average bitcoin trader may have just become bored, or exhausted all current trading possibilities. I'd guess anyone doing arbitrage between exchanges (especially the smaller endeavors) has exhausted those possibilities (judging from the relative ubiquity present in price across the various markets [in USD, anyway]). So it would follow from that that at least arbitrageurs are doing less bitcoin googling.
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Crypt_Current
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May 31, 2013, 09:45:50 PM |
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Good point. It's kinda hard to determine which term length is the right one though. Should all history necessarily be considered? If not, what part of it is relevant? I'm not completely sure.
The answer is none of it. You can't predict future price that way. Well, maybe YOU can't.  TA is still fun and there is tons of empirical evidence that its fruits, when properly backtested, can provide steady profits. Even if said evidence did not exist, people would still do it if they acquire enough enjoyment from the activity. No matter how much you tell people "you can't" about ANYTHING, there will always be at least someone who will attempt to do that thing. |
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Crypt_Current
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May 31, 2013, 09:50:59 PM |
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it looks different when you look at the longer term Something I noticed from a cursory glance at this chart (and just a disclaimer: this is not intended to be any real kind of TA, just a "hey i noticed..."), The time period starting early- through mid-April 2013 looks like a slightly enlarged version of the time period between early- and mid-November 2010. |
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dree12
Legendary
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May 31, 2013, 09:51:14 PM |
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Good point. It's kinda hard to determine which term length is the right one though. Should all history necessarily be considered? If not, what part of it is relevant? I'm not completely sure.
The answer is none of it. You can't predict future price that way. Well, maybe YOU can't. TA is still fun and there is tons of empirical evidence that its fruits, when properly backtested, can provide steady profits. Even if said evidence did not exist, people would still do it if they acquire enough enjoyment from the activity. No matter how much you tell people "you can't" about ANYTHING, there will always be at least someone who will attempt to do that thing. Indeed. Those who doubt TA's applicability often stand behind the myth that one cannot "predict the future". Yet, we do it all the time. I can tell you exactly what day this solar eclipse will be on, for instance. Some things are harder to predict than others, but like everything that isn't quantum they are still predictable. |
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mgio
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May 31, 2013, 10:16:23 PM |
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Good point. It's kinda hard to determine which term length is the right one though. Should all history necessarily be considered? If not, what part of it is relevant? I'm not completely sure.
The answer is none of it. You can't predict future price that way. Well, maybe YOU can't. TA is still fun and there is tons of empirical evidence that its fruits, when properly backtested, can provide steady profits. Even if said evidence did not exist, people would still do it if they acquire enough enjoyment from the activity. No matter how much you tell people "you can't" about ANYTHING, there will always be at least someone who will attempt to do that thing. Sure, I enjoy reading my horoscope too but I don't use it for investment advice. I was simply stating that there was no right or wrong answer because there isn't any correlation between a line you draw on the graph and bitcoins future movement. I admit that some kinds of TA are fun, and some kinds of TA are useful, I just get a little weary when TA is approached more as scientific fact than it should be. |
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