**

[PuertoLibre]

asicminer sells blades 50 btc per 10ghash, so 230s not crazy high.  Still think 2.5 btc per ghash is my entry point.

I'm you will probably find someone that will pay around your 'opening' price because there's still the Bitcoin ASIC fever going on but I highly doubt much more. I'd have started the auction a bit lower.

Considering ASICMINER blades pricing of 50btc * 7 = 350btc for the same GH/s, it's clearly a bargain. Especially keeping in mind that those blades will be shipping god-knows-when while this unit can start mining for you tomorrow. If no one is willing to make a reasonable bid for this unit, I'm quite content keeping it to myself. I'm not in any hurry to sell it at all. 

I don't think it's a bargain at all, you are comparing it with ASICMINER blades which are hugely overpriced and that will NEVER reach ROI, so...

I think you know that probably your Avalon won't mine 230BTC in its remaining life-span, and that's why you are good to sell it at that price.

Gotta give him a star for trying!

[biganth]

Personally I would think very seriously about buying something with more than 1 month ROI.  If people are right about growth 73ghs will only get 1 btc a day in a month 

How is this relevant? What hardware can you buy right now that will give you a 30 day ROI?

[mgio]

It's a bargain at 150 coins but not at 230.

I doubt any of those bids are actually real. You'll never see the coins. That has been the complaint of most people who have been trying to sell Avalons and Avalon pre-orders on ebay, bitmit and here. There are a lot of people who make bids they later decide not to honor which drives the price way up. All of the reasonable people who actually have the coin to spend don't bid that high because they know they will lose money. But all of the sellers only ever see the high bids so that's what they believe their unit is worth.

With the next difficulty looking like it will be well over 15,000,000 before this unit arrives at the winners house, I don't see how it can ever make back its cost.

But if you actually get 230+ for it, good for you.

[shep80]

Not speaking to this specific item auction and its pricing, but I have had dealings in the past with Arvicco and they went very smoothly. The items he shipped to me were packaged extremely well and sent very quickly.

[GenTarkin]

can get a better picture of what to expect outta the unit w/ ... http://www.coinish.com/calc/

for example: @ 1.3% diff increase / day, delivery a month out, given market rate stays same - only expect about $16k gross....

[J35st3r]

I posted this in the newbie thread, but I think it could do with repeating here.

damns 250btc, 80 days ROI with current difficulty, making it end of August starting to mine for profit, there will be very short period of time to make good profit, the next 80 days, probably, will make less then half of that sum, as all the asics hit the market (and i'm not talking abut bfl), if 30% of bfl hit the market till September, which is probably not going to happen, 80 days will make about 50btc.... but this still profitable not as it is now tho...

^^^^ ... this. But let's try working backward. 80 days ROI at current difficulty, so 40 days to recover half the cost. Use that to calculate the maximum acceptable rate of difficulty increase (so the other half of the cost is recovered by mining for eternity). 40 days is almost 6 weeks or 3 difficulty increases. Cube root of 2 is 1.26, so as long as the difficulty increase is less than 26% per fortnight, you'll recover your costs. But factor in delivery time, and the exact point in the block difficulty cycle to get an accurate answer, and perhaps you won't make any profit at all. Do your math folks.

[af_newbie]

Wow, that is insane!

Good move to sell it for that much.

[J35st3r]

80 days ROI at current difficulty, so 40 days to recover half the cost. Use that to calculate the maximum acceptable rate of difficulty increase (so the other half of the cost is recovered by mining for eternity). 40 days is almost 6 weeks or 3 difficulty increases. Cube root of 2 is 1.26, so as long as the difficulty increase is less than 26% per fortnight, you'll recover your costs. But factor in delivery time, and the exact point in the block difficulty cycle to get an accurate answer, and perhaps you won't make any profit at all. Do your math folks.

Why does everyone forgets the RESALE value? What you're saying is that in 80 days this Avalon will have a 0 resale value... sorry, this does not look realistic. Once you add back a resale value to your ROI calculation, it is becoming very hard for difficulty to raise fast enough to leave you with a negative ROI. Everyone should do their own math, of course, but to assume that in a couple of months this unit will be as good as useless is an obvious stretch of imagination.

Nice try, but you'll need to find a buyer who's a bit weak on the math too, otherwise you'll only get its value for its remaining mining life, which won't make up the difference between what you paid and the sum of your mining earnings.

I've gone over my math with the help of http://coinish.com/calc and I think I've been wildly over-optimistic. 209BTC would be the breakeven price, assuming the rate of change of difficulty remains unchanged. 26% per fortnight would breakeven at 165BTC
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.msg2369876#msg2369876

But kudos on getting such a good sale price 

[J35st3r]

26% per fortnight....

Making nethash assumtions and projecting difficulty is always the hardest part. Everyone ASSUMED that Avalon batch 1 will be a bad loser because of all the hash power from BFL hitting before it. In fact, everyone with Avalon batch 1 made a killing. So, do your math but keep in mind that any future hashrate estimate is just that - estimate, nothing more. 

Agreed, caveat emptor is always a good rule. Have a nice day now 

[DPoS]

if you were east coast I would make a push to acquire the funds for a local pickup..  i love the west coast but that adds some extra factors and timing