There seems to be great anticipation for trading to begin on Mt. Gox. So rather than wait for coding to completion, I thought I'd offer a Futures Bet (which I'll process manually at closing time). I'll be around here and on irc (typically otc).
Event: When will Mt. Gox start trading?
OpeningTime: 2011-06-25 00:00 UTC
("June 24 at 8pm in New York", "25 June 02:00 in the morning in Paris" and "08:00 in Beijing")
ClosingTime: 2011-07-05 00:00 UTC
("July 4 at 8pm in New York", "5 July 02:00 in the morning in Paris", "08:00 in Beijing"). All bets posted one full hour before the hour in which Mt. Gox begins trading will be retro-actively invalid (funds returned to sender minus TransactionFee).
ExpirationTime: same as ClosingTime (expect at least 24 hours to post calculations, and receive payouts).
BetPosition: represents the hour after 2011-06-25 00:00 UTC in which Mt. Gox. begins trading (and sustains trading for at least 60 minutes).
EventRules and Comments:
What follows are additional rules, exceptions, and comments to the General Rules: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.html
The BetPosition is indicated with the fourth, fifth, and sixth decimal place of the Wager
. For example, a bet of 1.000001 sent to the EventAddress is a Wager of 1.000001 predicting trading commencing 2011-06-25 between 01:00 and 01:59:59.99 UTC. A bet of 1.000100 sent to the EventAddress is a Wager of 1.0001 on position 100, in other words a prediction that trading will commence 4 days, and 4 hours later (2011-06-29 04:00-04:59:59.99 UTC).
All participants should read the General Rules. Payouts are weighted, based upon the valid block timestamp in which the wager was sent!
Bets before the OpeningTime 25 June have 100% risk and thus 0% penalty. All bets after the ClosingTime will produce no profit. Bets made in three days (28 June) have about a 50% penalty (penalties are part of the pool, penalty is roughly (hour/240)^2). Use a local wallet to send bets, because payouts will be returned to the same address (do not use an e-wallet).
The rules are open to discussion, but will not likely change unless there are severe calculation errors or clarification requirements.
General Rules: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.html