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Author Topic: Futures Bet: Mt. Gox's first full hour of trading  (Read 1208 times)
netrin
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June 25, 2011, 06:11:59 AM
 #1

There seems to be great anticipation for trading to begin on Mt. Gox. So rather than wait for coding to completion, I thought I'd offer a Futures Bet (which I'll process manually at closing time). I'll be around here and on irc (typically otc).

=======================

Event: When will Mt. Gox start trading?

GeneralRules: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.html

EventAddress: 1B2oHq8dCwLegguskVJEyuXSsz68HRJi9g

OpeningTime: 2011-06-25 00:00 UTC ("June 24 at 8pm in New York", "25 June 02:00 in the morning in Paris" and "08:00 in Beijing")

ClosingTime: 2011-07-05 00:00 UTC ("July 4 at 8pm in New York", "5 July 02:00 in the morning in Paris", "08:00 in Beijing"). All bets posted one full hour before the hour in which Mt. Gox begins trading will be retro-actively invalid (funds returned to sender minus TransactionFee).

ExpirationTime: same as ClosingTime (expect at least 24 hours to post calculations, and receive payouts).

BetPosition: represents the hour after 2011-06-25 00:00 UTC in which Mt. Gox. begins trading (and sustains trading for at least 60 minutes).

EventRules and Comments:
What follows are additional rules, exceptions, and comments to the General Rules: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.html

The BetPosition is indicated with the fourth, fifth, and sixth decimal place of the Wager. For example, a bet of 1.000001 sent to the EventAddress is a Wager of 1.000001 predicting trading commencing 2011-06-25 between 01:00 and 01:59:59.99 UTC. A bet of 1.000100 sent to the EventAddress is a Wager of 1.0001 on position 100, in other words a prediction that trading will commence 4 days, and 4 hours later (2011-06-29 04:00-04:59:59.99 UTC).

All participants should read the General Rules. Payouts are weighted, based upon the valid block timestamp in which the wager was sent! Bets before the OpeningTime 25 June have 100% risk and thus 0% penalty. All bets after the ClosingTime will produce no profit. Bets made in three days (28 June) have about a 50% penalty (penalties are part of the pool, penalty is roughly (hour/240)^2). Use a local wallet to send bets, because payouts will be returned to the same address (do not use an e-wallet).

The rules are open to discussion, but will not likely change unless there are severe calculation errors or clarification requirements.

General Rules: http://pastehtml.com/view/ay9nwzagt.html

=======================

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June 25, 2011, 06:19:11 AM
 #2

I would hope everyone loses their trust in Gox, takes all of their funds out and goes to TradeHill. However, it appears Gox is excellent at customer loyalty.
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June 25, 2011, 08:27:56 AM
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gentalmens bet (no cash/no winnings) of 03:00 gmt 6/26
netrin
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June 25, 2011, 08:33:43 AM
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gentalmens bet (no cash/no winnings) of 03:00 gmt 6/26

I'll take it, and get some sleep in the mean time.... Smiley

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Tronlet
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June 25, 2011, 09:48:41 AM
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I would hope everyone loses their trust in Gox, takes all of their funds out and goes to TradeHill. However, it appears Gox is excellent at customer loyalty.
Not that I don't agree in reality, but theoretically, we don't know that TradeHill doesn't have the same problems. Gox has been tested and could easily have much better security than TH after the fiasco and their work to fix it.

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June 25, 2011, 09:55:04 AM
 #6

Try https://bitoption.org/

Disclaimer:  Postings of Cloud9 are only individual views of opinion and/or musings and/or hypothesisses.  On a non-authoritative, peer-to-peer public forum, you do not need permission from Cloud9 to derive your own conclusions or opinions, so please do.  Calculations and assumptions to be verified.
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