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Author Topic: 0.5 BTC Bounty - Creating a Fiat/Bitcoin Exchange without Fiat Deposits  (Read 3541 times)
bytemaster
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June 02, 2013, 07:47:34 PM
 #1

*EDIT*  I have posted a white-paper explaining this process here: http://the-iland.net/static/downloads/BitSharesWhitePaper.pdf

I will payout a 0.5 BTC bounty each time someone finds an 'attack' on this block-chain algorithm that results in me creating a custom rule to address.


Imagine you wanted to open up a new exchange that did not accept USD deposits but still allowed people to trade USD vs Bitcoin.  How would it work?

First I would have them deposit Bitcoin.  I would let them 'short' dollars by selling them into the market provided the result of executing the trade
would leave their account with  - 1 USD   and  2 * Exchange Rate BTC.   I would then force them to 'cover' once 2* Exchange Rate == 1.5 USD.  We can then be sure that they will *never* be able to walk away with a negative USD balance unless the exchange rate fell "instantly" by over 50% and even then the losses would be limited.

I would then allow users to 'transfer' USD balances between eachother provided any negative balance maintained sufficient collateral. This means that someone could exchange paper-USD outside the exchange and receive a positive USD balance inside the exchange.  For this to work someone has over 1.5x the collateral posted backing that USD.

Then at the end of the day I would allow them to withdraw only via Bitcoin.

The net-result would be an exchange with no ties to the traditional banking system, yet still minimal risk to those who participate.  All prices
would have to be honest or someone will lose their collateral.  It is a kind of Nash Equilibrium backing all exchanges.

I would charge transaction fees and use those fees to pay interest to those with net margin in excess of 1.5x. I would also charge a one time fee
for short selling that would be paid as interest to the holders of USD.   You could only short-sell when there are no longs selling and everyone must compete to win the short position with the highest fee winning.

This would be a VERY traditional margin-based exchange supporting short-selling.   The cool thing about such an exchange is that all of the 'rules' could easily be encoded into a Blockchain and require no 'outside parties' to manage the exchange.

As a result this new structure solves all of the pricing issues with BitShares.   Market participants would all understand that their $USD balances are all backed by collateral and relatively safe.  There is risk involved if the price swings too quickly (USD going up, Bitcoin/Shares going down) and it would have the effect of generating 'short squeezes' that would tend to keep prices in equilibrium with less volatility.

So the question becomes, would you use an exchange based upon these principles?  What if it was entirely encoded into a blockchain?

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June 02, 2013, 08:42:50 PM
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I dont really understand your how that should work. Make a proof-of-concept site and we have something to talk about.

meanwhile, have a look at bitcoin.de , they dont ask for a money deposit, only a BTC deposit from the seller. So in case the buyer doesnt actually pay, nothing is lost and and the BTC can be returned to the seller; on the other side, the BTC from the seller is frozen when a transaction starts, so when a buyer did transfer the money but the seller doesnt confirm, then the exchange-owners can always check and release the frozen amount of BTC.
It is slow (because of banks), but it works.
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June 02, 2013, 09:06:20 PM
 #3

When you open a brokerage account you deposit $1000.   Then you want to sell some stock short, so you 'borrow it' and sell it on the market.   Your account is now 'short' the stock and you must maintain enough money in your account to buy back the stock even if the price of the stock jumps by 50%.   If the stock does jump the the broker may use your margin to buy-back the stock and cover your position.

If we consider your 'deposit' owning Bitcoins, then you can 'borrow' USD and sell it on the market provided you maintain enough BTC in your account to repurchase that USD even if the price of USD goes up 50%.

As a result of your margin the person who lent you the USD can be relatively sure they will get their USD back even if the price moves against you.  

The question is 'who' actually lent you the USD that you sold?   The answer is anyone who will give you real $USD in exchange for your digital USD.   Why did they lend you that $USD?  Because they know it was backed by enough money to any changes in the price and that the brokerage firm will liquidate your account to make sure they get their $USD back.

As a result the entire system can operate without any central planner so long as there is a means to enforce some simple margin requirements and a mechanism to exchange.

 


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June 02, 2013, 09:15:45 PM
 #4

The question is 'who' actually lent you the USD that you sold?   The answer is anyone who will give you real $USD in exchange for your digital USD. 

How can anyone give you real USD when the exchange doesn't accept fiat deposits?
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June 02, 2013, 11:09:31 PM
 #5

You can exchange deposits on the exchange for cash.

Imagine you had $100 in Mt.Gox, you could meet someone locally, give them $100 cash to send you $100 on the exchange.

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June 03, 2013, 08:23:27 AM
 #6

You can exchange deposits on the exchange for cash.

Imagine you had $100 in Mt.Gox, you could meet someone locally, give them $100 cash to send you $100 on the exchange.

A bit like back square one, isn't it?

edit: trading is not the hard part, it's getting fiat for bitcoins and visa versa.
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June 03, 2013, 01:11:20 PM
 #7

I hope to simplify the process of getting into/out of BitShares by allowing people to trade crypto-USD directly at face value without exchange risk.  This way no one has to worry about finding someone locally with 'reasonable' margins for buying or selling BitShares.

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June 03, 2013, 01:35:31 PM
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Could this exchange not operate on top of Bitcoin? does it necessitate having another alt-coin?
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June 03, 2013, 03:52:06 PM
 #9

Unfortunately, it does require another alt-coin for 3 reasons:

1) The collateral rules must be enforced by the network.  There is no way I know of to 'lock' or 'force the sale' of bitcoins without the private key being kept secret.  That said, this system could work in a 'centralized manner' behind a Tor server using Bitcoin as-is.  You would still have to trust that Tor server and if it was ever found you could lose all of your deposits.   If you know a way of 'controlling bitcoins' while keeping the private key public (on the p2p exchange), then it may be possible...  It may be possible to implement something similar using Open Transactions and the bitcoin voting pools but that approach seems less robust and would take longer to develop.

2) There is no way to pay dividends with Bitcoin.

3) It is very easy to move value between chains.  Those who don't want to use the 'exchange features' enabled by BitShares could just keep Bitcoin.  Eventually people will realize that Bitshares have all of the qualities of Bitcoins + more AND most of their existing infrastructure that uses JSON-RPC to talk to Bitcoin will still work with BitShares.  This creates a smooth, natural, market-based migration path.

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June 03, 2013, 04:17:52 PM
 #10

Investment Update:

So far I have lined up $30,000 investment into making this happen.  This $30,000 will get me through the first 3 months of development. 

Right now I am looking for people willing to pledge follow-on investments necessary to keep me cash-flow positive while I bring this idea to market.   

Because I know it is very 'risky' to invest money with someone at this early stage, I am asking only for pledges that will pay out on alpha-release of the new test-chain.  All investments will result in pre-mined shares in the new chain (1,000,000 limit to pre-mining).   Granted, receiving the money up front would put my wife at ease for this reason the first investors get the most pre-mining.     

Ideally, I would like to set up a company to handle the legal issues and hire additional people to accelerate development, find bugs, and otherwise do things that are not my strong suit. 

The first 500 BTC of investment I receive will be issued 1000 BitShares per BTC.   After that point it will be $1 per BitShare up to a total pre-mining limit of 1,000,000 (about 5% of the ultimate total money supply).  Also remember that owners of BitShares receive dividends equal to 50% of all mining fees so if you *never* sell then you could own a percentage of the total money supply proportional to your initial investment.   In other words, early investors will not be entirely debased by miners. 

Granted a forum post is not a 'contractual obligation', so if you would like more detailed terms and conditions on your investment or pledge then drop me a PM.


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June 03, 2013, 04:33:45 PM
 #11

What does that ($30k) 3 month budget include? How many paid developers would be working on this?

Once I learn more about your new proposal, I might be very interested in helping on the technical side. What about code submissions for shares?

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June 03, 2013, 04:36:49 PM
 #12

I thought you had given up on this and returned the investment. What happened?

ROI is not a verb, the term you're looking for is 'to break even'.
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June 03, 2013, 05:19:53 PM
 #13

This is a NEW take at solving the same problem.  This is not the same approach I was talking about in my old thread (though I kept the name the same).

I offered to return the investments and everyone has decided to re-invest in my new approach. 

Old Approach:  Complicated, Depending upon unproven economics and some wishful thinking.  Even I suspected I was missing something and was right.

New Approach:  Using proven 'brokerage structure' with crypto-currency as collateral and block-chain implementing margin requirements, automatic covering, and the exchange.

The new approach is so sound and based upon such a well-known practice in the industry that there are no mysterious forces at play.


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June 03, 2013, 05:35:59 PM
 #14

What does that ($30k) 3 month budget include? How many paid developers would be working on this?

Once I learn more about your new proposal, I might be very interested in helping on the technical side. What about code submissions for shares?

I will be offering shares for work contributed as well.    The rule of thumb will be that I will pay 'market-rates' for labor done at my direction, and then convert those 'rates' into BitShares on the same terms as everyone else.  Any labor performed at your own direction you will have to recoup via mining or purchasing shares.

$30K budget is to enable me to quit my high-paying job and still pay child support.  I will be supporting my family of 3 on $1500 / month and paying $2000 / month in child support.  Everything else will be going into legal fees,  bounties, and hiring others to accelerate development.   Needless to say, I am not looking to 'live rich' on other peoples money, I just want to get this thing built.     

Of the $30K, I am holding $15K as reserve and plan on operating on a $5K/month budget.   So in reality I have 6 months of development covered, but my wife insists I only treat it as 3 months because this will take about 6+ months from launch of continuous support, testing, and marketing to realize some return.

If I can raise $100K I will hire additional developers and grow the team as funding permits.

I have a meeting scheduled with a VC firm that is very interesting in my idea as well.  One member of this firm has already invested $5K personally, but he did not have authority to speak for the entire firm. 


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June 03, 2013, 09:28:21 PM
 #15

This means that someone could exchange paper-USD outside the exchange and receive a positive USD balance inside the exchange.

The problem as I see it is how do you envision people doing this on any significant scale?  It's rather cumbersome to do face-to-face transactions or some other medium that would be agreeable to by both parties.

Also, this isn't really circumventing or cutting ties to the traditional banking institution.  Lets say you and I meet up to exchange $10k in paper-USD for crypto-USD.  I give you $10k USD and you "transfer" $10K cUSD to me.  The second you deposit those funds into the bank, they're going to file a CTR (currency transaction report).  If it's later questioned where those funds came from, and you say you exchanged cUSD for USD, you're going to need a license or be subject to penalties.  Essentially, you're just transferring the risk from the exchange to all the individuals in the system.  There's no cut ties unless everyone is stashing USD under their mattress.

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$30K budget is to enable me to quit my high-paying job and still pay child support.

You realize this is THE #1 red flag/turnoff for VC's, right?  The last thing they want to hear is that you're paying yourself on their dime.  I'm rather surprised you got people to give you $30k to do this (more power to you) but any VC firm worth their salt will stop listening the second you mention you want to pay yourself a salary to further your own project.

I've been following your ideas and find them intriguing, it just seems like you're a bit hasty with your decisions as you seem to be bouncing from one idea to the next rather rapidly.  That's not a bad thing but I think you need to have a solid business plan first before you start seeking out equity investors.

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June 03, 2013, 09:46:20 PM
 #16

What are your regulatory requirements for opening such an exchange?

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June 03, 2013, 09:53:05 PM
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sounds to me like you are now thinking: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_currency_denominated_account
where the "foreign currency" is dollars, gold, etc. and the actual backing account is BitShares (or BTC if you do it centralized).  

The only way in or out it through the crypto-currency.

Pretty interesting...

I wonder how well the dollar denominated crypto-currency, i.e. crypto-USD will track the USD.  Search these forums for "Goxmoney" -- at times during the bubble people seemed to be willing to pay a premium for "USD" located on Mt Gox as opposed to located somewhere else.  Not so much of a premium that is became an issue though.

Ask your lawyer if there's some loophole where "dollar-denominated" does not count as actual dollars, therefore (in Canada at least) its all "play-dough" crypto-currencies and so not actually transmitting money...
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June 03, 2013, 09:56:32 PM
 #18

All,
   Here is the list of block-chain rules under active development.  I will payout a 0.5 BTC bounty each time someone finds an 'attack' on this rule set that results in me changing the rules.  Note, I may change the rules at any time in response to my own efforts at finding bugs.    I will then kindly request that everyone who finds bugs re-invest their 0.5 BTC bounty into the project and receive 500 BitShares instead.

1) Anyone may sell short any asset on the exchange provided:
       a) there exists a buyer who is willing to take the other side of the trade *at built-in market price*
       b) after the short sale, they have 3x the value of the short sale as collateral. (actual collateral requirements subject to change)

2) Any short position may be redeemed by the market when the value of the collateral falls to 1.5x the value of the short.
       a) half of the position is sold and the proceeds are used as collateral for the other half of the position (unless collateral would still be insufficient, or the balance would be 'dust')
       b) there is a 5% fee paid by all shorts which force the network to cover their position. The goal is to
          encourage any short to keep their margin sufficient or close out their position early. This fee also
          motivates miners to give closing out of short positions priority over most (all?) other transactions.

4) All 'short' positions must be closed in full before any of the collateral may be spent.
       - as the price of an asset falls, the effective interest rate paid to longs will go up as the ratio between short and collateral grows.
       - this will cause increasing opportunity costs for the short position which will motivate them to cover the entire position
         and re-open their position at a new base.  
    
3) Dividends paid on BitShares held as collateral are redirected to individuals who went Long (taking the other side of the trade).
       a) As a result, crypto-USD pays 1.5x to 3x to dividend rate rate as BitShares.

4) Users place their bids / asks into the blockchain as 'outputs' that can be canceled by spending them, or accepted by
       spending them as part of a transaction that satisfies the bid and market requirements.  

5) No block may execute a trade below the highest bid or above the lowest ask in the block chain.
      -  The order in which trades are executed is based upon 'price' first, 'fee' second, and otherwise up to the miner
      -  If the highest bid is greater than the lowest ask, then the transaction occurs at the *bid* price.

6) No transactions that contain multiple currency units are allowed outside of the bid/ask system.
      -  This requirement may be lifted after a careful audit for potential attacks by circumventing the 'market'.

Cool In the event that the price of an asset changes so rapidly as to blow through all 'margin', the Longs will eat the losses.
      - this is the justification for the higher dividend rates paid to the longs and the opportunity cost incurred by the shorts.
      - No system can gurantee 0 losses and BitShares is no different.

9) All trades on the built-in exchange incur a 0.05% transaction fee that contributes to mining fees / dividends.  This fee is
   designed to minimize the profitability of 'rapid trading' and generate profits for the BitShare holders.
      - minimum transaction size limits will also be imposed (like Bitcoin) to prevent dust spam.
      - minimum transaction fee just like bitcoin also applies.

10) All dividends paid to 'transaction outputs' in the last 120 blocks are recaptured as mining fees, spending these unconfirmed
dividends would result in chain-splits invalidating the tranaction.
      - as a result, those who spend money rapidly will receive no dividends, while those who save will receive the dividends.

11) Users may transact in any currency just like they do Bitcoin (provided all non-market transactions only deal with a single currency).
      - this includes trading of their short position.

12) No block may clear out more than 5% of the value of all open bids/asks for a particular asset.
      - this prevents certain classes of attack in 'thin' markets.

13) A maximum reduction in exchange rate of 5% per block.  The goal is to give market participants time to add collateral or buy the
dip.  It would also prevent certain types of attacks based upon 'rapid manipulation' of the price.

14) No trade may occur unless there are at least N? bids/asks capable of 'reversing' the position.
      - this aims to prevent attacks on new issuance and insures that there exists a deep enough market to justifiy creating
      a new asset class.  It also 'halts' trading when the market gets thin.
      - the definition of 'capable of reversing' is still TBD

15) You must wait 10 blocks before spending the output of a trade.
      - if we allow people to immediately spend with the proceeds of a trade then, chain forks could be exploited to
        reverse trades, manipulate prices, and cause losses.

All of the rules above ultimately mean that trading can only occur at 'human speed' and all high-frequency trading will be
forced off-chain.  Trading is not 'free', but cheaper than any current exchange.  


In particular I am looking for ways that the market can be manipulated that do not also apply to traditional markets.  Some avenues of
attack that must be considered:

1) What would happen if someone had 51% of the hashing power?
   - they could control what bids made it into (or out of) the blockchain.
         * prevent people from canceling bids.
   - they could control who got want bids.
         * play favorites
   - they could do anything they could do with Bitcoin.

2) What would happen if someone had 1% of the hashing power?
   - they may gain some advantage in picking/choosing bids.
   - would this motivate professional traders to invest heavily in mining?
   - would the competition ultimately be good for the network?

3) What weaknesses would be exposed by having all short positions and margin available as public information?
       * Somone with significant capital could 'trigger' a short-squeeze by bidding up the underlying asset.
           - is this mitigated by not allowing uncollateralized shorting?
       * The short-squeeze would then enable new shorts to sell at higher prices (offsetting their attempt to push it up)
       * In theory someone could take advantage of such moves... but only if they could move fast enough between
         short and long positions to 'head-fake' the network.  Because all positions require 6 confirmations before they can be adjusted does it
         make it difficult or impossible to benefit from this kind of manipulation?

4) In theory all 'shorts' are naked, but backed, and are ultimately settled in BitShares.  What are the implications?
   - don't trade in illiquid, rare, or non-fungibile/divisible items.  It would be up to the Longs to assess this risk.
   - the total 'short' position for any asset class is public and therefore can be audited.  If the total short position
   is too-large the market will respond by discounting the 'long' position from face value.
   - how does 'naked' shorting enable manipulation?  In theory, someone with a large amount of capital (BitShares) someone
   could keep selling into a market.  This would result in pushing the price down but would also drive the dividends paid
   to longs up.  
   - Because longs are not buying with leverage, short-selling to push the price down CANNOT trigger margin calls and further selling.
   - another way this can be viewed is that the 'shorts' are 'borrowing' the USD from the longs and are posting collateral and
   paying interest to do so.  
   - any naked-short is ultimately has to cover and thus 'unwinds' his position.  He can only profit if supply and demand
   actually creates a fall in prices independent of the action of the short-seller.

5) Why would anyone go 'long' against someone known to be naked-short?   Perhaps you can think of the short-long market as
  a betters market where the winner takes home BitShares.  All market participants are attempting to manipulate the price and
  predict which way it will move.  50% think it will go up, 50% think it will go down and the result is a tug-of-war.  What
  are people really betting on?  They are betting on what *other market participants* will do!  How do you know what the
  other participants will do?  You have to assume they are all expecting the price to follow real market prices. Anyone who
  is out-of-sync with the emergent consensus opinion about what a price should track will ultimately end up making losses
  in this market.

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June 03, 2013, 10:00:21 PM
 #19

What are your regulatory requirements for opening such an exchange?

In what country? 

If you were to do it centralized (behind a Tor node) then I suspect you would be subject to all SEC regulations regarding naked shorting unless the crypto-currency was considered 'play-money' in which case it would just be an advanced "just-for-fun" betting system.   

The reality is they will make what ever regulations they want apply to the system.

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June 03, 2013, 10:07:48 PM
 #20

This means that someone could exchange paper-USD outside the exchange and receive a positive USD balance inside the exchange.

The problem as I see it is how do you envision people doing this on any significant scale?  It's rather cumbersome to do face-to-face transactions or some other medium that would be agreeable to by both parties.

Also, this isn't really circumventing or cutting ties to the traditional banking institution.  Lets say you and I meet up to exchange $10k in paper-USD for crypto-USD.  I give you $10k USD and you "transfer" $10K cUSD to me.  The second you deposit those funds into the bank, they're going to file a CTR (currency transaction report).  If it's later questioned where those funds came from, and you say you exchanged cUSD for USD, you're going to need a license or be subject to penalties.  Essentially, you're just transferring the risk from the exchange to all the individuals in the system.  There's no cut ties unless everyone is stashing USD under their mattress.
Here is how it works, you can send money via the banks, dwolla, or any other system.  You could use gold/silver if you like.  The point is the exchange does not depend upon it.  Keeping money in the exchange will actually yield a higher return and because businesses no longer have to worry about 'exchange risk' they will be far more likely to accept it.   The end result is that the existing banking system will become increasingly irrelevant.



Quote
$30K budget is to enable me to quit my high-paying job and still pay child support.

You realize this is THE #1 red flag/turnoff for VC's, right?  The last thing they want to hear is that you're paying yourself on their dime.  I'm rather surprised you got people to give you $30k to do this (more power to you) but any VC firm worth their salt will stop listening the second you mention you want to pay yourself a salary to further your own project.

I've been following your ideas and find them intriguing, it just seems like you're a bit hasty with your decisions as you seem to be bouncing from one idea to the next rather rapidly.  That's not a bad thing but I think you need to have a solid business plan first before you start seeking out equity investors.

Here is the deal, I can pay someone else to do the work and keep my current job.  I can give the idea away and let the VC pay someone else to do it.  Unfortunately, I am not independently wealthy and have to eat.   So the question is am I paying myself above market rates for the work I am doing?   The answer is no, I would have been my self 50% less than I am currently making.  

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