Long term check-up

[WackyWilly]

Quick update on my thoughts - long term, as we may be getting into a rollover in price again.

On the daily chart (normal scale) you'll already recognize a trend line break. But given the volatile nature of BTC, and its remarkable resilience so far, I tend not to read too much into the chart on normal scale. For those nonetheless interested, here it is:

http://imageshack.us/a/img41/6639/dailymtgox02062013norma.png



Instead - I am closely looking at the weekly chart on semi-log scale. Given the large percentage wise swings we're looking at.  Here are your red alert levels to watch for the coming weeks. No trend broken, yet. Should the trendline be broken, however, then brace yourselves for a target of $32 - $64.

[ RSI and MACD (not shown here) show either a the old negative crossing (RSI) and an about-to-happen negative crossing (MACD). ]


http://imageshack.us/a/img13/1377/rszweeklymtgox02062013l.png


(sorry, but you will need to zoom with your browser to get a good look)


"And hey... Let's be careful out there!"
Willy

[vokain]

I like how everything is organized, thanks Willy!

[smoothie]

You can never go broke taking profits.

So I do in a staggered fashion over time in small amounts.

[Abandon]

Thanks for this!

[WackyWilly]

Thanks for this!

You're welcome!

[WackyWilly]

So it's now official: the upward intermediate trendline has been broken. 

First thing to look for (as this is a weekly chart) is to see a CLOSE below this trendline. That will occur if the price doesn't reverse sharply. That will be your confirmation.

Once confirmed too, we're into "neutral" from an intermediate standpoint of view. But "neutral" withing VERY large boundaries.
In any case it is by FAR not time to start buying again. This market will need months to work things out (that is most likely to be at a vastly lower level; even from the current levels you might see a 70% drop).

Take care out there.