A bull market looms on the horizon

[Lucid717]

I'm not saying it'll happen today.  I'm not saying it'll happen tomorrow.  This period of relative stability may last quite a bit longer...  But the next major swing will be an upward one.  All the signs I see point to this being a virtual inevitability.  And I've been right before about a few things at least.  I just call it how I see it, nothing more, nothing less.  I've always tried to keep it real with people in here whether it was something they wanted to hear or not.

If you have a few bucks to invest it isn't a bad time to do so.

[d5000]

There is surely a lot more optimism in the market than one month ago. But still the danger has not passed away.

We are still inside of what could be the second bounce after an important high (the ATH of just below $5000). The bounce got really high, but its high has still not reached the values of the previous bounce ($4600-700, reached after the first bigger dump down to ~$3950). If we don't break this value, then a bearish outcome is more likely.

There are also still fundamental risks to be considered, above all a bad outcome of the Segwit2x fork in November - it has become a bit less likely because Segwit2x lost a bit of traction, but it is still possible.

[piloder]

Before fork yes we might see a huge bull rally which might even set new all time high price for bitcoin, price of bitcoin is rising but altcoin's price is not increasing against bitcoin. Which suggest people are selling their alts to get bitcoin before fork so they can get free forked coins which they can later on sell for some free cash.

[Lucid717]

There is surely a lot more optimism in the market than one month ago. But still the danger has not passed away.

We are still inside of what could be the second bounce after an important high (the ATH of just below $5000). The bounce got really high, but its high has still not reached the values of the previous bounce ($4600-700, reached after the first bigger dump down to ~$3950). If we don't break this value, then a bearish outcome is more likely.

There are also still fundamental risks to be considered, above all a bad outcome of the Segwit2x fork in November - it has become a bit less likely because Segwit2x lost a bit of traction, but it is still possible.

Danger & risks are an inevitability with all securities.  Especially these days, and especially with something as volatile as BTC.  Still, despite all the FUD recently (some justified, some not so much), the value has remained surprisingly strong through it all.  People were convinced that China's reluctance would be the death of BTC, yet it not only weathered that storm fine but here we sit with the value still not far below it's all time high.  Not to mention my mind has changed about the whole China situation.  I think it's largely a game of misdirection on their part.  They're the best poker players.  They have the fastest growing economy in the world right now by far and it's not by accident.  They never report the amount of their gold reserves and I have a feeling they're being intentionally deceptive about their position on BTC as well.  I'd bet that "if" their involvement were to sink the value of BTC they would be the first ones to take advantage of the situation.  US "analysts" are also doing their best to convince people that BTC's are a bad investment whose bubble will burst at any moment.  And I not only find that all highly suspicious but I don't believe it for a moment.  If the masses of common folk like ourselves in here were to lose confidence they would surely reap the rewards of it.  And we can't allow that to happen.

Also I believe this hard fork will turn out to be a good thing when the smoke clears, and I just took a look at a poll and most people agree.  Something like 41% agree that it will prove advantageous.  27% don't think it will really have much of an affect at all (basically much ado about nothing).  So that makes it 68% that believe it'll either be a good thing or irrelevant, vs. 32% thinking it will be a bad thing.  I thought for sure before I saw the results that that those numbers would basically be backwards.  Wishful thinking doesn't tend to play much of a role in an anonymous poll so almost all of that 68% is likely based on empirical data.  But you can bet that much of the 32% was based on the inevitable fear of the unknown.  I believe this is cause for yet more optimism.

I think that second "bounce" would have happened already, before it stabilized for the length of time that it has now.  I agree with the other person above that a spike just before the fork is likely.  Nobody knows for sure of course where it will go from there, but my money is on another period of stability while people cautiously look for any side effects resulting from the fork.  When they see none, or even that in fact the results are positive I see another bullish run ensuing.  7K by the end of 2017 and 5 digits at some point in 2019 after it slowly but surely climbs as new types of investors can no longer ignore it's potential and add it to their portfolios.

Just how 1 man sees things...

[d5000]

US "analysts" are also doing their best to convince people that BTC's are a bad investment whose bubble will burst at any moment.  And I not only find that all highly suspicious but I don't believe it for a moment.  If the masses of common folk like ourselves in here were to lose confidence they would surely reap the rewards of it.  And we can't allow that to happen.

But if prices overheat- like I think they did in the last months - then a correction, even a sharper one, is often healthy to bring the investors "back to reality" (with "correction" I don't refer to a kindergarten crash like the $3000 we saw, but a longer bear market, at least for some months). Those that are into Bitcoin because they really believe in it will then still be in, and from those that are in for the quick money (if they don't do short selling) some will get out, at least for a while.

Also I believe this hard fork will turn out to be a good thing when the smoke clears, and I just took a look at a poll and most people agree.  Something like 41% agree that it will prove advantageous.  27% don't think it will really have much of an affect at all (basically much ado about nothing).  So that makes it 68% that believe it'll either be a good thing or irrelevant, vs. 32% thinking it will be a bad thing.

Can you point me to the source of these numbers? Is it a Bitcointalk poll (if yes, I wouldn't have so much confidence in it)?

I think that second "bounce" would have happened already, before it stabilized for the length of time that it has now.

Look at these charts from 2013/14: Bitcoincharts

In these months, you see basically three periods of "bounces" before the final capitulation. The first bounce (in December) lasted only a few days and almost reached the previous highs. The second bounce in January/February lasted for about 3 months, reached a respectable high and then deflated into a "slower" crash than the first one. The third one lasted from May to October 2014, but on a much lower level (that would be comparable to today's 1500-2500$). Similar patterns were found in early 2013, and also in 2011.

I agree however with you that if the November fork does have a clear "winner" (and so the worst case scenarios can be ignored) then after it the outlook is most likely bullish, at least for some time.

The predictions you made are definitively possible (10K+ in 2019 is also something I have in mind), they are optimist but not too insane. But I don't think the rise will be linear, there will be at least one longer bear market until 2019, and there are some indications that this could be the case in the last months of 2017.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

There is surely a lot more optimism in the market than one month ago. But still the danger has not passed away.

We are still inside of what could be the second bounce after an important high (the ATH of just below $5000). The bounce got really high, but its high has still not reached the values of the previous bounce ($4600-700, reached after the first bigger dump down to ~$3950). If we don't break this value, then a bearish outcome is more likely.

There are also still fundamental risks to be considered, above all a bad outcome of the Segwit2x fork in November - it has become a bit less likely because Segwit2x lost a bit of traction, but it is still possible.

I don't think anyone is doubting that segwit2x hardfork will not happen. It WILL happen, anyone can fork at any time of the day. What matters is that the fork is resolved quickly, similarly to Bitcoin Cash. It has already been solved, we all know Bitcoin Cash is an altcoin and has no real chance at #1.

Now we got the scammers on Segwit2x trying to turn their chain into the only chain by trying to destroy the legacy one. This is why this situation is not exactly like Bitcoin Cash. At least Bitcoin Cash had the decency to add replay protection and compete on the market. S2X scammers are scared to fight in the market because they know people will dump it for real BTC.

[Kronos21]

There is surely a lot more optimism in the market than one month ago. But still the danger has not passed away.

We are still inside of what could be the second bounce after an important high (the ATH of just below $5000). The bounce got really high, but its high has still not reached the values of the previous bounce ($4600-700, reached after the first bigger dump down to ~$3950). If we don't break this value, then a bearish outcome is more likely.

There are also still fundamental risks to be considered, above all a bad outcome of the Segwit2x fork in November - it has become a bit less likely because Segwit2x lost a bit of traction, but it is still possible.

I don't think anyone is doubting that segwit2x hardfork will not happen. It WILL happen, anyone can fork at any time of the day. What matters is that the fork is resolved quickly, similarly to Bitcoin Cash. It has already been solved, we all know Bitcoin Cash is an altcoin and has no real chance at #1.

Now we got the scammers on Segwit2x trying to turn their chain into the only chain by trying to destroy the legacy one. This is why this situation is not exactly like Bitcoin Cash. At least Bitcoin Cash had the decency to add replay protection and compete on the market. S2X scammers are scared to fight in the market because they know people will dump it for real BTC.

I don't support neither one nor the other. Each of them has contributed to undermine the credibility of bitcoin. Unfortunately bitcoin is experiencing some difficulties due to its decentralization. Can be for the community it'd be better if bitcoin had a Central control point. This control center will come in handy to fight the governments when they start a war.

[mobnepal]

Volume is growing slowly in all exchanges and price is also increasing which suggest we are near another bull run.
I am not buying at current price but will hold what I have to sell on the peak.

Price might grow rapidly after the current fud over coming hardfork will settle down.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I happen to agree with you, OP, but I'm nowhere near certain that it's inevitable.   I just think we had a correction in an otherwise raging bull market and that we're going to continue going up.

Unfortunately for me, I have to sell some bitcoin relatively soon to pay some bills, and equally unfortunate is the fact that I sold or spent pretty much all the bitcoin I've earned or bought these past couple of years.  When I get caught up, I think I'll start hoarding crypto.  Hopefully we won't have arrived at the moon by then.

By the way, it's not looming.   We're in the midst of a bull market right now.

[aso118]

I'm not saying it'll happen today.  I'm not saying it'll happen tomorrow.  This period of relative stability may last quite a bit longer...  But the next major swing will be an upward one.  All the signs I see point to this being a virtual inevitability.  And I've been right before about a few things at least.  I just call it how I see it, nothing more, nothing less.  I've always tried to keep it real with people in here whether it was something they wanted to hear or not.

If you have a few bucks to invest it isn't a bad time to do so.

I agree that Bitcoins price seems to be straining to break free. We have hit resistance levels quite a few times before retreating. The next move will be a decisive one. And I believe in the upwards direction.

[darkangel11]

I think we are in a bull market for over a year. The small correction don't mean a thing. Just look at the charts from the last 2 years and you'll clearly see when the price started to go up. First it was only recovering, but then it broke $1000 and went to the moon, where it remains. There are no indications that the bullish trend has ended, it only became much slower due to chinese trading being paralyzed.

[Idrisu]

I have also been trading and analysed cyptocoins market both here and on twitter and I think op is very right. The range market is more of the downward recovery and the next movement is going to be an up trend one and I am speculating that before end of this month we may seriously experience this bullish market. However the hard fork issue may push the price to a high or lower positions.

[richardsNY]

I think we are in a bull market for over a year. The small correction don't mean a thing. Just look at the charts from the last 2 years and you'll clearly see when the price started to go up. First it was only recovering, but then it broke $1000 and went to the moon, where it remains. There are no indications that the bullish trend has ended, it only became much slower due to chinese trading being paralyzed.

People mostly start with calculating from the moment they opened their positions. If that means they entered the market at the $4000 level, and the market goes down to $3000, it's being seen as the end of a bullish period. They completely ignore the fact that the market even at $3000 is up like 200% this year alone, and then I'm not even talking about last year. People for once need to look further than only a small time frame -- this market can look like a complete war zone in the last few weeks, but then looks insanely pumped if you look at the last year or two.

[ragnar0k]

So that begs the question... assuming we get to 6k in the bull run, do you think it will hold or will it take months to stabilize afterwards?

[ivrynx]

I think there is still going to be another bull, bitcoin had just lost its value of 5000 usd and went down, though the trend is still upwards,  a slight drop is noticeable, and now, a lot of of good news are coming, especially from japan, since it had endorsed 11 exchanges and yheir banks already accepted bitcoin, and are already using bitcoin, with their fiat, the japanese yen as the value, and soon banks from other countries might follow. The financial institution goldman sachs is already eyeing on to be an exchange, and dubai is also creating their own cryptocurrency, and this just proves that bitcoin is legitimate and will sure rise up again. I think that china in time will realize what they had done, and probably legalize bitcoin again, and if that happens, bitcoin will have another boost.

[iram1011]

Market will indeed stay bullish till October 20. After that there are two forks lined up.

First one that is Bitcoin Gold fork might not have much impact on the market as people are already aware that market will be bullish after the fork as happened earlier after Bitcoin Cash fork. Thus, market won't experience a dip of 40% like before in July. But the pace will slow down between 20-25 October.

Second one that is Segwit2x fork can have a severe effect on the market if enough consensus wouldn't be there. Still the support is less and can lead to uncertainty and hence drop. I think Bitcoin price will see some major drop in November.

[Yuuto]

I'm not saying it'll happen today.  I'm not saying it'll happen tomorrow.  This period of relative stability may last quite a bit longer...  But the next major swing will be an upward one.  All the signs I see point to this being a virtual inevitability.  And I've been right before about a few things at least.  I just call it how I see it, nothing more, nothing less.  I've always tried to keep it real with people in here whether it was something they wanted to hear or not.

If you have a few bucks to invest it isn't a bad time to do so.

Definitely. Price hasn't really moved up much even though there seems to be a renewed bull market in bitcoin. The movement is still sideways mainly, and has not even broken the $4500 yet(which i think it will very soon).

Therefore, it is probably a great time to invest at the moment.

The price could well be pushed upwards to $5500 per coin, once Segwit2x is out of the way.

[Siren]

I'm not saying it'll happen today.  I'm not saying it'll happen tomorrow.  This period of relative stability may last quite a bit longer...  But the next major swing will be an upward one.  All the signs I see point to this being a virtual inevitability.  And I've been right before about a few things at least.  I just call it how I see it, nothing more, nothing less.  I've always tried to keep it real with people in here whether it was something they wanted to hear or not.

If you have a few bucks to invest it isn't a bad time to do so.

Definitely. Price hasn't really moved up much even though there seems to be a renewed bull market in bitcoin. The movement is still sideways mainly, and has not even broken the $4500 yet(which i think it will very soon).

Therefore, it is probably a great time to invest at the moment.

The price could well be pushed upwards to $5500 per coin, once Segwit2x is out of the way.

We have almost break the $4500 mark, unfortunately its too much for the traders and a price correction soon follow. And the price seems to on a alternating highs and lows. There's no great time to invest, as long as you "trusted" that the market will go to $5000 and upwards then put your money in it. I'm still optimistic that Segwit2x will be push out of the way, no support no traction from everyone. I really do hope that OP is right and we may see consolidation before taking off for a full massive run.

[hatshepsut93]

What do you mean "looms on the horizon"? We have been in a bull market since the beginning of 2016 and it never stopped, so it's more correct to say that the current bull market will continue. And it is indeed very likely, since more and more people and companies are getting interested in Bitcoin and new countries like Japan and Korea joined the market and now play a major role in it. The real question is whether will we have a painful bear market again at some point, similar to what we had in 2014-2015. Bull runs don't last forever, so the price will either remain stable or will start declining over long period of time and it's hard to predict what is exactly going to happen.

[Kemarit]

What do you mean "looms on the horizon"? We have been in a bull market since the beginning of 2016 and it never stopped, so it's more correct to say that the current bull market will continue. And it is indeed very likely, since more and more people and companies are getting interested in Bitcoin and new countries like Japan and Korea joined the market and now play a major role in it. The real question is whether will we have a painful bear market again at some point, similar to what we had in 2014-2015. Bull runs don't last forever, so the price will either remain stable or will start declining over long period of time and it's hard to predict what is exactly going to happen.

And the bullish trend was evident when Japan entered the picture then followed by South Korea. Well, there are bumps along the way but we have overcome and didn't succumbed. Every period of relative stability will always followed by a renewed enthusiasm on the market will resulted in a upcoming bull run. There is also the looming November fork but I believed its loosing grip so it will be a non-factor. If this bull run was released, we definitely don't know where its headed and stop. So investing right now would be a logical choice.