In the first day price will rise then some pre-sale owners sell their bonus for less and this will be a dump.
So if the project is good its good time to buy in this dump. but if its a fail everybody sell their tokens " panic sale"
Yep, this sounds right. I didn't account for the initial dump when it hits the exchange. People always dump, no matter what the coin is. So, if you truly have faith in it, you buy more at the cheap prices for extra profit when it rises back up.