50 -> 80 -> 100 -> 115? 110? Call me again if we go below 100 again.

[oda.krell]

Title is kind of self-explanatory, but here's the graph to go with it:



Note 1: I don't believe much in trendlines, or rather: I strongly doubt the wisdom of hunting the right trendline at a given time, as some seem to do. However, I do believe in psychologically important levels of support, and how they develop.

Ever since the April crash, after each further correction we've continued trading from a higher low than before. The previous one was at ~100. Right now, we're at 117, after hitting 115 yesterday.

Should we fall below 100, I would probably consider that a fundamental change in the perception and mood of the entire market. Until that happens, I interpret the reactions I see now as panicking behavior by a few participants.

Note 2: Understand the following: I'm not actually ruling out the possibility that we go below 100. I'm only saying, until that happens, I don't see a reason to fundamentally change my assumptions about the market.

Note 3: For the nitpickers: I know, the actual lows were closer to 48, 79, and 103. My point remains the same.

[dandirk]

Looks like you may doubt trending less then you think.

Cause that right there is TA... You are just applying it in a macro/long term vs the shorter which is posted here more often (and more often inaccurate).

I was noticing that trend too... Tried to guess the bottom of these dips with it in mind.

The size of the market is freaking people out... someone dumps and it creates a panic and then all the bears predict $40 in a few days.  Goes up $3 and all the bulls are saying $1000.   

Just remember that a 20k BTC sell may seem big now but at one point it was only worth $2k... Someone just decided enough was enough and cash out their payday for a nice summer vacation.

[oda.krell]

Looks like you may doubt trending less then you think.

Cause that right there is TA... You are just applying it in a macro/long term vs the shorter which is posted here more often (and more often inaccurate).

Guess I didn't phrase that right... I don't doubt TA at all. I doubt the pseudo-TA assumption some in here seem to follow that there is THE ONE trend that the price follows at a given time. Hence why those people get their panties in a bunch if that trend is broken, and hence their surprise when the price then doesn't necessarily fall all the way down to the next ONE TREND one level below, as they were expecting.

Anyway....

I was noticing that trend too... Tried to guess the bottom of these dips with it in mind.

The size of the market is freaking people out... someone dumps and it creates a panic and then all the bears predict $40 in a few days.  Goes up $3 and all the bulls are saying $1000.   

Just remember that a 20k BTC sell may seem big now but at one point it was only worth $2k... Someone just decided enough was enough and cash out their payday for a nice summer vacation.

I don't like it that one large move can disturb the market like that. This market needs more volume, spread across more participants. I'm afraid however the last months have rather seen a concentration of btc in a few hands :/

Also, I don't believe in the "whale cashing out" explanation. Wrong time, wrong behavior... I think it was a deliberate move by someone to bring down the price and (probably) buy back cheaper afterwards.

[dandirk]

Whale or manipulator... 6 of 1 half dozen...    I was just trying to make a point that a "whale" in this market at this time is a smaller whale then in other markets, price was very low just a year ago.  So it wouldn't surprise me if some have a few grand in, made tons of money and thinks BTC is ultimately going down the tubes.

The dump didn't surprise me all too much, the longer an upper resistance holds the more nervous I get.  I sold literally hours before because the failed 132 and 130 break and bouncing at 127-129.  In BTC is seems something is up if the price is stable:).

As you said it could be a manipulator but also someone that just wants to get out and thinks the price is topped for a bit.

Though an augment against that with all the news... its difficult to get 20k of btc out of the market (in fiat).

[michaelGedi]

agree with this post OP

[andrewsg]

I have to agree as well - good post OP. I confess to being a TA and chartist hater, especially the kind of "TA" we get around these parts, but the OP makes sense and is due some credit for having posted it when the price was still falling.

[oda.krell]

I have to agree as well - good post OP. I confess to being a TA and chartist hater, especially the kind of "TA" we get around these parts, but the OP makes sense and is due some credit for having posted it when the price was still falling.

Thanks :)

as I pointed out in my note 2, the argument wasn't even that much about which direction we're going, but rather which momentum to expect, as in: based on the increasingly higher lows, I didn't (and still don't) see the momentum to carry us to 80? 30-40? USD, as some bears seem to believe.

[michaelGedi]

I have to agree as well - good post OP. I confess to being a TA and chartist hater, especially the kind of "TA" we get around these parts, but the OP makes sense and is due some credit for having posted it when the price was still falling.

Thanks

as I pointed out in my note 2, the argument wasn't even that much about which direction we're going, but rather which momentum to expect, as in: based on the increasingly higher lows, I didn't (and still don't) see the momentum to carry us to 80? 30-40? USD, as some bears seem to believe.

the argument is generally that it would be a long slow decline, so I assume that would mean not much momentum.

I'm not sure what the argument is founded on apart from 2011 data yet. Maybe normal market behaviour after a bubble? Unfortunately I see good news and wider adoption appearing before a major bottom out. But that's my positive spin I put on BTC just so I can rest at night with my all in stance.