Difficulty will easily rise 10 times by Autumn

[johnyj]

Every time Avalon ships, there is a huge jump 

[btcfarseer.com]

Hi johnyj,

If you are interested in guessing future difficulty, please come and check our game! http://btcfarseer.com

We just built this, if you are interested, please help us to improve and we will keep refining it. More details are in this post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=223850.0

[VeeMiner]

who the heck is 71.178.24.197 ?

[Ex0deus]

Interesting supposition.... i suppose anything is possible....
Wonder how worth it will be when I actually see an ASIC :/

[bigbeninlondon]

All the more reason to be part of the ASIC wave.  If you don't keep up, you get left behind.

[J35st3r]

All the more reason to be part of the ASIC wave.  If you don't keep up, you get left behind.

But the ROI on ASIC's ordered today is negative(*)! So if you try to keep up you will actually fall even further behind than where you started from!

(*) With the possible exception of the DIY chip purchase schemes.

[Crindon]

All the more reason to be part of the ASIC wave.  If you don't keep up, you get left behind.

I feel sorry for those who pre-ordered one from BFL.

[CoolIT]

All the more reason to be part of the ASIC wave.  If you don't keep up, you get left behind.

Or I can keep happily mining my litecoins with GPU's, wait 1 year and get ASIC's for cheep once the demand drops and availability rises.

I don't need to pay 10x what it's worth for beta testing + all the stress that comes with it...

Or even worse, giving money to BFL.

[MashRinx]

who the heck is 71.178.24.197 ?

IP Address appears to be on Verizon FIOS in Herndon, VA, but can't tell much more than that.  Don't know if any of the pools are located there.

[Yecchi]

All the more reason to be part of the ASIC wave.  If you don't keep up, you get left behind.

Sure, when proven developers release their second generation of machines that are much faster than those shipping now

[crypt0maniac]

or much cheaper

[mgio]

All the more reason to be part of the ASIC wave.  If you don't keep up, you get left behind.

Sure, when proven developers release their second generation of machines that are much faster than those shipping now

No, you missed out. No developer will ever make a machine that is cheap enough to make much off of it. If it is a good deal, everyone will buy and difficulty will rise to compensate. From now on, mining is going to be a arduous, low-return game. The easy money is gone.

[FCTaiChi]

All the more reason to be part of the ASIC wave.  If you don't keep up, you get left behind.

Sure, when proven developers release their second generation of machines that are much faster than those shipping now

No, you missed out. No developer will ever make a machine that is cheap enough to make much off of it. If it is a good deal, everyone will buy and difficulty will rise to compensate. From now on, mining is going to be a arduous, low-return game. The easy money is gone.

I'm really sad that this is happening.  I'm looking for solutions.  It's not easy though.

[Slipage]

Look at that graph and the storm has not even started

This will be the end of bitcoin

Soooo many people spending hard earned money on a pre order that will be as good as a door stop by the time they get it.

All this greed will leave bitcoin unpopular when the average person cannot make a profit = price smashed down.


Back the real stocks .

[pikeadz]

All the more reason to be part of the ASIC wave.  If you don't keep up, you get left behind.

But the ROI on ASIC's ordered today is negative(*)! So if you try to keep up you will actually fall even further behind than where you started from!

(*) With the possible exception of the DIY chip purchase schemes.

vaporware is even more of a gamble.

[KSV]

what goes up must come down, plus difficulty follows price. . . price did the same a few weeks ago.

[Aureum_Coffee]

I made a calculation once, using difficulty, BTC/USD, power usage and power cost as input.  Consider hardware cost as zero because for some who have mined for a long time, mined bitcoins have covered hardware cost.

Assume: BTC/USD = 120.  1200 MH/s for 2x 7970 cards.  Power cost = $0.1/ kwh.  Power usage = 650 Watt.  Making less than $0.5 is no longer considered profitable.

Find breakeven difficulty. 

Difficulty = approximately 34 million.  So at 34 million difficulty, it's time to turn off the GPU miners.

[spiral_mind]

This site says the IP 71.178.24.197 comes from Reston, Virginia: http://my-ip-address-is.com/ip/71.178.24.197

That's 20 miles from Washington, D.C.

US Government mining pool?

The only way to control Bitcoin is to have 51% of the mining power or have a ton of them to trade...

[rograz]

Assume: BTC/USD = 120.  1200 MH/s for 2x 7970 cards.  Power cost = $0.1/ kwh.  Power usage = 650 Watt.

650w? my 4x7950@530KH/s rigs pulls 700w mining scrypt and that's with me overclocking them, I'm aiming for 4KH/W once I start optimizing the rigs. It's good to know how inefficient the competition is when everyone starts switching to LTC.

I miss all the discussion on this forum about maximizing efficiency we used to have a year ago, maybe I should come back in a few months.

[bigbeninlondon]

This site says the IP 71.178.24.197 comes from Reston, Virginia: http://my-ip-address-is.com/ip/71.178.24.197

That's 20 miles from Washington, D.C.

US Government mining pool?

The only way to control Bitcoin is to have 51% of the mining power or have a ton of them to trade...

That's just the first IP to inform blockchain.info of the block; not the ip that found it.