Is B2X already priced in?

[fabiorem]

And if so, how much?

I'm worried about this: https://bitcoin.org/en/posts/denounce-segwit2x

If people start trading B2X masked as true BTC, the true BTC they are buying will go to whom?

And if there is no replay protection, would the addresses be the same or not? If not, the transaction would not happen in the other chain, but since there's no replay protection, they will be using the same addresses, and so money will be traded in the other chain too. Will this cause issues with other addresses not involved in the trade?

And if B2X already have a future market (like what happened with BCH), will it cause a price drop in the real BTC?

How much will be safe to send and receive BTC in the main chain?

[1715637416]

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[TryNinja]

And if so, how much?

I don't think so. Maybe a few exchanges start trading a B2X IOU token in the future, just like what happened with Bitcoin Cash in the ViaBTC exchange.

And if there is no replay protection, would the addresses be the same or not? If not, the transaction would not happen in the other chain, but since there's no replay protection, they will be using the same addresses, and so money will be traded in the other chain too. Will this cause issues with other addresses not involved in the trade?

Addresses will probably be the same if they just make a plain clone of Bitcoin. For example, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash are sharing the same addresses and the same private keys.

The problem is that without replay protection you may end up spending coins in one chain and your transaction getting broadcasted at the same time in the other chain. So, if you want to send 0.5 BTC to someone, you may end up sending 0.5 BTC and 0.5 B2X to the desired address;

And if B2X already have a future market (like what happened with BCH), will it cause a price drop in the real BTC?

Bitcoin price didn't drop because of BCH taking a part of the market. So if Bitcoin keeps being the "main chain", the price will get getting higher.

How much will be safe to send and receive BTC in the main chain?

We will know when the fork time arrives.

[davis196]

And if so, how much?

I'm worried about this: https://bitcoin.org/en/posts/denounce-segwit2x

If people start trading B2X masked as true BTC, the true BTC they are buying will go to whom?

And if there is no replay protection, would the addresses be the same or not? If not, the transaction would not happen in the other chain, but since there's no replay protection, they will be using the same addresses, and so money will be traded in the other chain too. Will this cause issues with other addresses not involved in the trade?

And if B2X already have a future market (like what happened with BCH), will it cause a price drop in the real BTC?

How much will be safe to send and receive BTC in the main chain?

This will create a lot of confusion,and this is bad for the market,it doesn`t matter if it`s B2X or BTC.
Replay protection is a must and nobody would want to send and receive coins without it.
I`m sure that the real btc value will continue to increase,because the real btc supporters are a majority.   

[RoommateAgreement]

so far it seems like the only effect b2x future market had was an increase in bitcoin price or maybe it is just a coincidence because nobody takes "future markets" seriously. and bitcoin price is currently above $4500! for the first time after a long while of big drop followed by a slow rise.

the closer we get there may be some fluctuations which can go either way but i say because we already had a very big drop down to 3k range it is not possible to see any big drop in bitcoin price because all the weak hands are already out and have not yet came back.

[HeRetiK]

I think B2X has yet to be priced in. That, or the expectation of a price increase once the hardfork drama is done with is balancing out the uncertainty of the possible B2X fork.

Ironically though it looks like B2X already took a huge bite off BCH.

so far it seems like the only effect b2x future market had was an increase in bitcoin price or maybe it is just a coincidence because nobody takes "future markets" seriously. and bitcoin price is currently above $4500! for the first time after a long while of big drop followed by a slow rise.

the closer we get there may be some fluctuations which can go either way but i say because we already had a very big drop down to 3k range it is not possible to see any big drop in bitcoin price because all the weak hands are already out and have not yet came back.

What worries me is that the volume has been rather low lately so it doesn't look like the market is all that confident right now.

[exstasie]

I think B2X has yet to be priced in. That, or the expectation of a price increase once the hardfork drama is done with is balancing out the uncertainty of the possible B2X fork.

We're still like 40 days out from the fork. Nobody is too worried yet. There is plenty of time for calmer heads to prevail, for CEOs to swallow their pride and back out of the NYA, and for miners to respect Bitcoin's consensus. My feeling is that many people think a fork won't happen.

But if it's November and nothing has changed -- 90% or more miners signalling the NYA, and no services backing out of the agreement -- then I think the market may start pricing in the split.

Ironically though it looks like B2X already took a huge bite off BCH.

That makes perfect sense to me. Bitcoin Cash and B2X are basically splitting up the big blocker camp. In that sense, it's good for Core and status quo. Legacy BTC holders are also in a position of advantage from a market perspective: they get coins on all the forks. When BTC gets hard forked, BCH holders get nothing. After Segwit2x, when BTC gets hard forked again, B2X holders get nothing, etc.

[talkbitcoin]

But if it's November and nothing has changed -- 90% or more miners signalling the NYA, and no services backing out of the agreement -- then I think the market may start pricing in the split.

yeah, that is what i am also afraid of, that the miners continue supporting the 2 MB hardfork. it is bigger than 90% and things will become a big headache.
note that nobody is exactly "signalling" now though. it is just a couple of characters they put in their blocks

how about the fact that price has been going up?
anyone wants to comment on that? are people buying bitcoin to get more coins out of the following forks (gold and 2x)?

[HeRetiK]

Ironically though it looks like B2X already took a huge bite off BCH.

That makes perfect sense to me. Bitcoin Cash and B2X are basically splitting up the big blocker camp. In that sense, it's good for Core and status quo. Legacy BTC holders are also in a position of advantage from a market perspective: they get coins on all the forks. When BTC gets hard forked, BCH holders get nothing. After Segwit2x, when BTC gets hard forked again, B2X holders get nothing, etc.

Pretty much my line of thinking as well.

I wonder what happens to BCH in case the B2X fork goes through and survives. A couple weeks ago "the other subreddit" was heavily populated by anti-SegWit hardliners, but now with B2X looming that sentiment seems to have changed.

[...]

how about the fact that price has been going up?
anyone wants to comment on that? are people buying bitcoin to get more coins out of the following forks (gold and 2x)?

I think the recent price increase is mostly due to the China drama confirming USD 3k,- as a strong bottom, despite CNY valuations being even lower than that.

[candy27]

I don't think the full reality of the fork is priced in at all.

I think what we are seeing is pure FOMO where people are buying bitcoin purely to get their free segwit2z coins. Because the BCH fork went fine, they're treatin this as just another airdrop that they don't want to miss out on - even though this fork is very different, one chain aims to kill the other chain.

[fabiorem]

I think what we are seeing is pure FOMO where people are buying bitcoin purely to get their free segwit2z coins. Because the BCH fork went fine, they're treatin this as just another airdrop that they don't want to miss out on - even though this fork is very different, one chain aims to kill the other chain.

This is my fear. People are thinking it is like BCH, but at that time, there was replay protection, the addresses had different structure.

Now there's no replay protection, its the same addresses, hence its the same coin but on different chains. People will dump B2X in exchanges which support both coins and their BTC will de dumped altogether. Also coinbase will list it as BTC, and people will be buying B2X thinking its BTC.

Those who are not going to dump it will not lose their coins, but the price will be affected, as the massive dump of thousands of users will create a bear market and miners will lose money with it, as the difficulty will still be the same because theres no replay protection. Maybe the price will be even less than the costs for mining, which would affect China as well. Everbody will be affected, including the B2X guys, as their coin will be priced very low in relation to mining costs, turning their network slow.

Also there will be no lightning network, unless theres a complete change of POW where mining is turned irrelevant. B2X is a open attack on the network.

Exchanges should NOT list B2X as a separate coin until it have mandatory replay protection, as it happened with BCH.

[candy27]

Exchanges should NOT list B2X as a separate coin until it have mandatory replay protection, as it happened with BCH.

Initially most exchanges said they wouldn't touch anything without replay protection - but now Coinbase have announced they will be supporting both chains - though they haven't said exly HOW.

The whole thing is a great big mess.

[thejaytiesto]

I think what we are seeing is pure FOMO where people are buying bitcoin purely to get their free segwit2z coins. Because the BCH fork went fine, they're treatin this as just another airdrop that they don't want to miss out on - even though this fork is very different, one chain aims to kill the other chain.

This is my fear. People are thinking it is like BCH, but at that time, there was replay protection, the addresses had different structure.

Now there's no replay protection, its the same addresses, hence its the same coin but on different chains. People will dump B2X in exchanges which support both coins and their BTC will de dumped altogether. Also coinbase will list it as BTC, and people will be buying B2X thinking its BTC.

Those who are not going to dump it will not lose their coins, but the price will be affected, as the massive dump of thousands of users will create a bear market and miners will lose money with it, as the difficulty will still be the same because theres no replay protection. Maybe the price will be even less than the costs for mining, which would affect China as well. Everbody will be affected, including the B2X guys, as their coin will be priced very low in relation to mining costs, turning their network slow.

Also there will be no lightning network, unless theres a complete change of POW where mining is turned irrelevant. B2X is a open attack on the network.

Exchanges should NOT list B2X as a separate coin until it have mandatory replay protection, as it happened with BCH.

So if they don't list it as a separate coin, what is the alternative? these scammers want to destroy the legacy chain. It must be measured in the market that B2X is refused and dumped into oblivion to crush the hopes of the forkers. Let's solve it in the market instead of the current nonsense of the hardforking corporations implying that everyone using Coinbase supports it. Let the market decide, otherwise Coinbase and co should be ready to face some serious lawsuits.

[candy27]

I think what we are seeing is pure FOMO where people are buying bitcoin purely to get their free segwit2z coins. Because the BCH fork went fine, they're treatin this as just another airdrop that they don't want to miss out on - even though this fork is very different, one chain aims to kill the other chain.

This is my fear. People are thinking it is like BCH, but at that time, there was replay protection, the addresses had different structure.

Now there's no replay protection, its the same addresses, hence its the same coin but on different chains. People will dump B2X in exchanges which support both coins and their BTC will de dumped altogether. Also coinbase will list it as BTC, and people will be buying B2X thinking its BTC.

Those who are not going to dump it will not lose their coins, but the price will be affected, as the massive dump of thousands of users will create a bear market and miners will lose money with it, as the difficulty will still be the same because theres no replay protection. Maybe the price will be even less than the costs for mining, which would affect China as well. Everbody will be affected, including the B2X guys, as their coin will be priced very low in relation to mining costs, turning their network slow.

Also there will be no lightning network, unless theres a complete change of POW where mining is turned irrelevant. B2X is a open attack on the network.

Exchanges should NOT list B2X as a separate coin until it have mandatory replay protection, as it happened with BCH.

So if they don't list it as a separate coin, what is the alternative? these scammers want to destroy the legacy chain. It must be measured in the market that B2X is refused and dumped into oblivion to crush the hopes of the forkers. Let's solve it in the market instead of the current nonsense of the hardforking corporations implying that everyone using Coinbase supports it. Let the market decide, otherwise Coinbase and co should be ready to face some serious lawsuits.

Without replay protection, it's too much of a risk for the exchanges - people could be sending teh same coin to them over and over and they'd go bankrupt. I wouldn't take the risk if I was their shoes.

The only solution from the exchange's point of view is to suspend all trading on bitcoin over the fork, and then let the miners battle it out, and the list the chain with the most support.

IF however segwit2x concedes on the replay protection, them both chains can be listed. But there is no sign of that happening.

[Getaman]

I think what we are seeing is pure FOMO where people are buying bitcoin purely to get their free segwit2z coins. Because the BCH fork went fine, they're treatin this as just another airdrop that they don't want to miss out on - even though this fork is very different, one chain aims to kill the other chain.

This is my fear. People are thinking it is like BCH, but at that time, there was replay protection, the addresses had different structure.

Now there's no replay protection, its the same addresses, hence its the same coin but on different chains. People will dump B2X in exchanges which support both coins and their BTC will de dumped altogether. Also coinbase will list it as BTC, and people will be buying B2X thinking its BTC.

Those who are not going to dump it will not lose their coins, but the price will be affected, as the massive dump of thousands of users will create a bear market and miners will lose money with it, as the difficulty will still be the same because theres no replay protection. Maybe the price will be even less than the costs for mining, which would affect China as well. Everbody will be affected, including the B2X guys, as their coin will be priced very low in relation to mining costs, turning their network slow.

Also there will be no lightning network, unless theres a complete change of POW where mining is turned irrelevant. B2X is a open attack on the network.

Exchanges should NOT list B2X as a separate coin until it have mandatory replay protection, as it happened with BCH.

So if they don't list it as a separate coin, what is the alternative? these scammers want to destroy the legacy chain. It must be measured in the market that B2X is refused and dumped into oblivion to crush the hopes of the forkers. Let's solve it in the market instead of the current nonsense of the hardforking corporations implying that everyone using Coinbase supports it. Let the market decide, otherwise Coinbase and co should be ready to face some serious lawsuits.

Without replay protection, it's too much of a risk for the exchanges - people could be sending teh same coin to them over and over and they'd go bankrupt. I wouldn't take the risk if I was their shoes.

The only solution from the exchange's point of view is to suspend all trading on bitcoin over the fork, and then let the miners battle it out, and the list the chain with the most support.

IF however segwit2x concedes on the replay protection, them both chains can be listed. But there is no sign of that happening.

If that is the case, then some people can use Bitcoin Cash to do the transaction. That has replay protection.

[DustyRah]

Its been priced in but there will be some rise in price all the way up to middle of November. Its a good chance to buy at below $5000 currently and dump it at $6000.

The 4k pricing is consolidating now.

[candy27]

Looks like the segwit2x people have caved and are now adding replay protection:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7597ji/did_s2x_really_just_hardfork_out_their_replay/

see also

https://github.com/btc1/bitcoin/commit/a3c41256984bf11d95a560ae89c0fcbadfbe73dc#commitcomment-24828658

This makes it more likely that both chains will be listed on all the exchanges.

[TryNinja]

Looks like the segwit2x people have caved and are now adding replay protection:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7597ji/did_s2x_really_just_hardfork_out_their_replay/

see also

https://github.com/btc1/bitcoin/commit/a3c41256984bf11d95a560ae89c0fcbadfbe73dc#commitcomment-24828658

This makes it more likely that both chains will be listed on all the exchanges.

You just posted a link to a reddit thread that links to a commit where they reverted their "replay protection" which is opt-in. Which means that you last line is contradicting with the rest of your post.

They don't have any replay protection, which makes it harder to get B2X included on exchanges.

[DonQuijote]

What exchanges support b2x ?

[HeRetiK]

What exchanges support b2x ?

So far only Bitfinex is supporting B2X futures trade, at least from what I'm aware of. Not sure if others will follow that path, especially since BCH futures trading was also only offered by a handful of exchanges.

Apart from that, it's probably still too early to tell. While most exchanges promised to support noteworthy forks, many also stated that they would only support forks that also include a proper replay protection.

So who knows. Maybe B2X still adds proper replay protection. Maybe exchanges find a way to securely handle both chains. Maybe B2X will get listed on only a handful of exchanges due to lack of replay protection. The latter would be a major throwback to B2X's claim to legitimacy, however.

[DonQuijote]

What exchanges support b2x ?

So far only Bitfinex is supporting B2X futures trade, at least from what I'm aware of. Not sure if others will follow that path, especially since BCH futures trading was also only offered by a handful of exchanges.

Apart from that, it's probably still too early to tell. While most exchanges promised to support noteworthy forks, many also stated that they would only support forks that also include a proper replay protection.

So who knows. Maybe B2X still adds proper replay protection. Maybe exchanges find a way to securely handle both chains. Maybe B2X will get listed on only a handful of exchanges due to lack of replay protection. The latter would be a major throwback to B2X's claim to legitimacy, however.

Thank you for your answer, im a little lost with b2x