Is B2X already priced in?

[ask]

For my opinion yes its priced in but we have too many issues which not priced yet.
Trump-Korea-Europe etc. these are not priced in and we will see a big rise while we have these problems

[mptak123]

Hi

B2X is already trading on HitBTC and not only.

Please see the video for more details:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vF7heYZWVO8

Regards, Marcin

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

My guess is that B2X is not fully priced in yet...actually, maybe not much at all, given how few seem to be sure about what's going to happen.  In order to price something in, the market participants need to have enough conviction about the outcome to trade what they believe will happen ahead of time (even if they're wrong).  Most people seem very uncertain, very confused, or both.  While I'm slowly working to clear up my confusion, I continue to be uncertain about what's going to happen.

[JMAHH]

Yes, i saw this and the actual price of bitcoin segwitx2 is listed at $1000 each one, on the future's market.
But i am a little bit worried about what you have wrote in there, you are right about everything, but i dont think that it is available to sell and buy (the real coins, right, not the futures)
We only have to wait, there is nothing we can do, but i am sure that i will receive those free coins, this is probably what most of us wants.

[timerland]

There's already a few exchanges starting to trade B2X.

If we look at the previous few major forks(BCC, BTG, etc.), then when they happened bitcoin actually didn't move much at all. For BTG it was a small fall in price that was later recovered pretty soon. For BCC it actually rose.

It'll depend on the exact market conditions going into the fork.

[squatter]

There's already a few exchanges starting to trade B2X.

If we look at the previous few major forks(BCC, BTG, etc.), then when they happened bitcoin actually didn't move much at all. For BTG it was a small fall in price that was later recovered pretty soon. For BCC it actually rose.

It'll depend on the exact market conditions going into the fork.

Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold -- neither are good precedents here. The reason BTC rallied in late July/August was because of BIP91 and resolution of the BIP148 chain split threat. BCH was just a sideshow altcoin. BTG is even more of a sideshow... it hasn't even launched and people are increasingly not taking it seriously at all. BCH has replay protection and BTG is supposed to.

That's quite a bit different than B2X, which has no replay protection and is backed by much more of the ecosystem. There could be a very messy split, and I'm not sure that the futures market is totally pricing in all the possibilities right now.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

There's already a few exchanges starting to trade B2X.

If we look at the previous few major forks(BCC, BTG, etc.), then when they happened bitcoin actually didn't move much at all. For BTG it was a small fall in price that was later recovered pretty soon. For BCC it actually rose.

It'll depend on the exact market conditions going into the fork.

Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold -- neither are good precedents here. The reason BTC rallied in late July/August was because of BIP91 and resolution of the BIP148 chain split threat. BCH was just a sideshow altcoin. BTG is even more of a sideshow... it hasn't even launched and people are increasingly not taking it seriously at all. BCH has replay protection and BTG is supposed to.

That's quite a bit different than B2X, which has no replay protection and is backed by much more of the ecosystem. There could be a very messy split, and I'm not sure that the futures market is totally pricing in all the possibilities right now.

Agreed--this is going to be a much bigger deal.  I'm not sure that the futures market is going to be a good indicator here.  Unless it starts to become fairly clear who's going to go which way when we get closer to the fork, pricing is going to be pure speculation.  B2X futures volatility may make bitcoin's price action look calm by the time everything settles.

[richardsNY]

I'm not sure that the futures market is going to be a good indicator here.

Not really. Price of futures and the actual exchange rates will never be able to match correctly, which shouldn't be anything surprising. I am quite sure that the actual price of the split tokens will be higher than what you see on the future markets. Don't forget that BCH initially crossed the 0.4 BTC level, tanked badly to below 0.10 BTC, and then went back up to +0.20 BTC. SegWit2x by a great distance is a far more important fork, where I expect it to have a much higher value, at least in the early period. For that reason I believe that in the last week before the fork people will hoard Bitcoin. So no, I don't believe SegWit2x is already priced in.

[hahahafr]

A lot of people are saying that segwitx2 is not going to have a replay action, and per every bitcoin you send, you are going to send a b2x coin, so there are no free coins at all since you are going to have them masked on your wallet. They are a garbage, i always knew that their developers were greedy as fuck, and i was not wrong with that prediction because the whole community knows that at the moment.
it is probably one of the worst forks that have ever existed.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

A lot of people are saying that segwitx2 is not going to have a replay action, and per every bitcoin you send, you are going to send a b2x coin, so there are no free coins at all since you are going to have them masked on your wallet. They are a garbage, i always knew that their developers were greedy as fuck, and i was not wrong with that prediction because the whole community knows that at the moment.
it is probably one of the worst forks that have ever existed.

I was doing some research on replay protection last night, and my understanding of it is that without replay protection, it's possible, but not guaranteed, that sending coins on one branch of the fork will cause them to be sent on the other.  Replay protection just guarantees that that can't happen.  I also read that there are ways around this so that if you are careful and know what you're doing, you can ensure that a transaction on one chain won't show up on the other.  However, I don't yet understand what needs to be done.  I suggest doing your own research to understand all of this better.

[farhaan]

For sure,a big confusion is awaiting for the bitcoin community this month when segwit 2x will be activated.
Definitely,new investors would get totally confused about which would be the true bitcoin.
It would affect the reputation of bitcoin.
The aspect which is worrying is that segwit 2x has almost 85% of hash rate.
If segwit 2x does not get majority of support,then bitcoin price would skyrocket.
But if segwit 2x gets major support and replaces legacy bitcoin,then bitcoin may start slowly losing the trust which it has gained over the past eight years.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

For sure,a big confusion is awaiting for the bitcoin community this month when segwit 2x will be activated.
Definitely,new investors would get totally confused about which would be the true bitcoin.

New investors definitely stand a good chance of getting confused, but even veterans may have some issues.  It's taken me some time to get a handle on all the aspects of the fork and the politics behind it.

It would affect the reputation of bitcoin.

This, I think, will depend on which fork "wins."  If BTC continues to dominate, it will likely get even stronger as this ordeal will instill confidence in its resiliency.  If B2X wins, it may severely damage the reputation of bitcoin as such an event will be seen by many as a hostile takeover/coup.

The aspect which is worrying is that segwit 2x has almost 85% of hash rate.

While many miners and merchants have indicated support, such support may evaporate quickly if the rest of the community doesn't follow.

[francis2]

There is still time left and I do not think the segwit2x fork is completely priced in already, since there may be more news that may affect whether the fork is going to happen at all.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

There is still time left and I do not think the segwit2x fork is completely priced in already, since there may be more news that may affect whether the fork is going to happen at all.

Oh yes.  From what I've read, it sounds like there's still a lot of uncertainty.  There appears to be a contingent of veteran bitcoiners who seem to be sure that segwit2x doesn't stand a chance.  They make some good points, and I hope they're right.  While I want faster transactions and lower fees, I think the best thing for bitcoin would be for segwit2x to die a very quick death (or at least show that it's not going to replace BTC).  Market price will probably determine everything.  And while B2X futures spiked to around 1/3 of a bitcoin a few days ago, they've steadily declined back to around 1/5 since then.  As long as the price of B2X doesn't support many miners, it won't take hold.