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Author Topic: JesVarez Picks (NCAA BBall / NBA) (17W-7L in College BBall) +24.41 Units  (Read 1874 times)
JesVarez (OP)
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December 07, 2017, 02:44:54 AM
Last edit: December 07, 2017, 04:27:22 PM by JesVarez
 #101

Portland State ML vs Loyola Mary
STK 4 @ 2.25

Wrong team as an underdog in this match up, we already did a STK 4 before and that was an easy win as I expect on this game as well. As every STK 4 al lot of details going on on this game.
Portland State has put some really big numbers the past games, they are 6-0 Against the Spread and they put 81 points against the best team in the Nation Number 1 Ranked Duke at their home. They lost by 2 points against Butler on the road as well and they even beat Stanford by 9. Their last game on Saturday they won against a pretty bad team but they scored 125 points. Now they are playing on the road again against Loyola Mary. Portland State lead in every category against Loyola Mary, field goal %, rebounds, assist, points per game, etc. I was actually expecting Portland State to be favorits to win this game by at least 3 points and I see that Loyola Mary is the favorite here? If it is a close game then I think Portland has enough to win it outright, so we will go with that.

+14.35
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December 07, 2017, 04:47:46 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 03:38:26 AM by JesVarez
 #102

GAME: Central Florida vs Alabama
PICK: Central Florida +10.5 STK 2
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/792c0d7K3p0d3g3SEVzdGNKT3EzeEhvV0FJZz09/r/2136580/

UFC is 4-3 for the season, but they have had a tough schedule to start this year and this time they are playing against Ranked #24 Alabama. Two of their loses came within 3 points, including a 3 point lost against No 23 Missouri. I think Alabama should win this game but 10 points is too much for this UFC team that is not as bad as the spread suggest.
Central Florida even won the game against this ranked Alabama team, good win.

Toronto Raptors -13.5 vs Phoenix Suns
STK 1

Phoenix comes from beating the 76ers on the road with a really good perfomance from Booker. However, they are on a back to back against a whole different team and this will end the road trip from Suns. I think this should be a blowout since the start and Raptors to win more than that. Suns defense is one of the worst in the NBA and they just have a good offensive tempo some time, but this is a Toronto team that has showned that they can go deep in the playoffs.
Lost by 1 point at the end of the game, Raptors won by 13. What a shame, they even had the ball to shot at the end but decided to get the turnover, then the Suns scored a buzzer beater to win the spread.

Buffalo -3.5 vs Delaware
STK 2

Buffalo is just a better team in this match up, Delaware isnt playing against big teams while Buffalo already played one ranked opponent and some other teams on the road. Should be an easy game but I dont think it will be this close.
What a shame, we were up by 4 points and the game ended, then the refs checked the replay and decided there was a foul at the end of the game so Delaware shot 2 free throws and cover the spread at the end, pretty suspicious there.

Portland State ML vs Loyola Mary
STK 4 @ 2.25

Wrong team as an underdog in this match up, we already did a STK 4 before and that was an easy win as I expect on this game as well. As every STK 4 al lot of details going on on this game.
Portland State has put some really big numbers the past games, they are 6-0 Against the Spread and they put 81 points against the best team in the Nation Number 1 Ranked Duke at their home. They lost by 2 points against Butler on the road as well and they even beat Stanford by 9. Their last game on Saturday they won against a pretty bad team but they scored 125 points. Now they are playing on the road again against Loyola Mary. Portland State lead in every category against Loyola Mary, field goal %, rebounds, assist, points per game, etc. I was actually expecting Portland State to be favorits to win this game by at least 3 points and I see that Loyola Mary is the favorite here? If it is a close game then I think Portland has enough to win it outright, so we will go with that.

+14.35
Won another STK 4, 2-0 on those with some good odds. Portland was +2.5 on the spread and ended up winning by 9 points.

Overall
+14.35


Im just doing from now on College Basketball, NHL and some NBA from now on. This are the stats for all of those:
College Basketball
12W-5L
77.27% From College Basketball
+13.10 Units


NHL
2W-0L
+3.46 Units

100% but just 2 picks
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December 08, 2017, 03:05:58 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:18:54 AM by JesVarez
 #103

GAME: San Francisco vs. Eastern Washington
PICK: San Francisco -5.5 @1.9 STK 2

Eastern Washington has had a terrible start for the season, they rank 269th in scoring offense, only shooting 39.7%. They play on the road against Eastern Washington who is 4-3 in the season. San Francisco is 0-4 against the spread but I think that ends tonight as they play at home against a poor team that is 1-6 against the spread their last 7 games. I think this is a good spot for San Francisco to end this streak and take the win.
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December 08, 2017, 03:27:45 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:18:42 AM by JesVarez
 #104

Rockets vs Jazz
Over 210.5 STK 2 @1.90

I will never bet on an under when the Rockets are playing, they are able to put 50 points in a quarter alone, their offense its their best weapon and they just dont like to play defense. They have a really fast tempo and they play against a Jazz team that play slow, I though this line will be at about 220 but its only at 210. This is a steal as I can see the Rockets scoring a ton of points.
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December 08, 2017, 04:45:47 AM
 #105

Just found this thread and am impressed with your point of view on the games your are betting on.
The analysis you give of each game is very beneficial to the ones who are following your tips.
I really like what you have done here.
But one suggestion: Could you put a link to the games you are betting on so it is just a point and click thread for the site you are using?
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December 08, 2017, 09:19:30 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:20:55 AM by JesVarez
 #106

Oregon -14.5 vs Colorado State
STK 2 @1.90

I post this now because the spread will start to go up. Oregon has been struggling but they are a really good team, they play at home and I expect this game to be the one that puts them on the map as they play a really poor team in Colorado State.
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December 08, 2017, 11:58:57 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:22:01 AM by JesVarez
 #107

Cavs -3.5 vs Pacers
STK 2 @1.90

Cavs are red hot right now, they play against the Pacers and the line is too low for this Cavs team. Should be a comfortable win for this Cavs.
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December 09, 2017, 12:55:50 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:23:31 AM by JesVarez
 #108

Raptors -5.5 vs Memphis
1.9 STK 2

Raptors is for me one of the most underated team in the NBA. They play against this Memphis team who is 2-8 last 10 games and they have covered the spread in just a few times in that time. Raptors should be favorites by at least 10 points as this Memphis team is going downhill since they fired their coach.
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December 09, 2017, 04:26:34 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:28:48 AM by JesVarez
 #109

Boston Celtics to win vs Spurs
STK 2 @2.35

Could never go wrong betting on this Celtics team. Their defense is the best in the NBA and when the time comes Kyrie Irving comes in clutch in the 4th quarter. Celtics are a young team and they play at a nice pace and they should beat this veteran Spurs team.
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December 09, 2017, 07:04:33 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:35:27 AM by JesVarez
 #110

Georgia State -3.5 vs Montana
STK 2 @1.90

Montana comes from a 54 point scoring night against Stanford, really poor offensive and defensive night for them and they play against this Georgia State that is 5-3 and are playing some decent offense this year.
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December 09, 2017, 07:35:13 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:37:25 AM by JesVarez
 #111

VCU +13.5 vs Setton Hall
STK 2 @1.90

VCU is underrated this year, this is their first away home and they play the 19th ranked team in the nation. They have played 2 though teams in the year and they kept the game close to a single digit game, I expect the same in this game.
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December 10, 2017, 01:02:35 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:39:45 AM by JesVarez
 #112

Tulsa +10.5 vs KState
STK 2 @1.90

KState has not played any good teams besides Arizona State, number 15th ranked and only lost by 2. But this team can play really good against high ranked teams but against bad teams they are a mess. I expect them to win against Tulsa but 10 points is just too much.
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December 10, 2017, 04:58:44 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:42:41 AM by JesVarez
 #113

UNLV -4.5 vs Illinois
STK 4 @ 1.90

Another STK 4. We are 2-0 in this STK 4 and only do this when Im really confident about a bet. The line is at -4.5 when it oppened at -6.5. When in my opinion it should be at a -10.5 for UNLV. They are 5-1 at home where Illinois havent won on the road (0-2). UNLV is 7-2 for the year and a great 7-2 against the spread as well, Big Ten conference has been struggling and I just dont see this game being as close as the oddmakers think.
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December 10, 2017, 07:16:44 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 12:44:44 AM by JesVarez
 #114

Arizona State +14.5 vs Kansas
STK 2 @1.90

Arizona State is one of the best teams in the Nation, for me, they are easily between the top 10 in the NCAA. Scoring about 90 points per game their offense is the key to winning all their games. They play a Kansas team that played last night and lost against a 20 point underdog Washington. The line is WAY TOO HIGH. I expect this game to be really close but its at Allen Fieldhouse, thats the reason why I decided not to make it a STK 4. Still think is a really good bet.
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December 10, 2017, 08:58:12 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2017, 01:05:54 AM by JesVarez
 #115

Washington Redskins vs. Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
STK 2 @2.00

Redskins come from a poor show against the Cowbows while the Chargers have a really good defense. The line should be at about -9.5 for the Chargers but its actually coming down to -6 or -5.5 in some websites. Take the Chargers here.

Celtics ML vs Pistons
STK 2 @1.83

I dont know how the Celtics started as underdogs in this game, the Pistons have lost 5 in a row while the Celtics are on fire, Celtics last lost was against the Spurs at San Antonio where Manu made a winning 3 at the end. Now the line has shifted and Celtics are favorites now, should win this game with no problem.
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December 11, 2017, 03:39:26 AM
 #116

GAME: San Francisco vs. Eastern Washington
PICK: San Francisco -5.5 @1.9 STK 2

Eastern Washington has had a terrible start for the season, they rank 269th in scoring offense, only shooting 39.7%. They play on the road against Eastern Washington who is 4-3 in the season. San Francisco is 0-4 against the spread but I think that ends tonight as they play at home against a poor team that is 1-6 against the spread their last 7 games. I think this is a good spot for San Francisco to end this streak and take the win.
San Francisco wins by 10. Easy win.

Rockets vs Jazz
Over 210.5 STK 2 @1.90

I will never bet on an under when the Rockets are playing, they are able to put 50 points in a quarter alone, their offense its their best weapon and they just dont like to play defense. They have a really fast tempo and they play against a Jazz team that play slow, I though this line will be at about 220 but its only at 210. This is a steal as I can see the Rockets scoring a ton of points.
Close one but Rockets pulled away at the end and gave us the over.

Just found this thread and am impressed with your point of view on the games your are betting on.
The analysis you give of each game is very beneficial to the ones who are following your tips.
I really like what you have done here.
But one suggestion: Could you put a link to the games you are betting on so it is just a point and click thread for the site you are using?
Hi, thank you, I use different bookies depending on the odds. I mainly use Bet365 since it has the bets odds and its the most knowned.

Oregon -14.5 vs Colorado State
STK 2 @1.90

I post this now because the spread will start to go up. Oregon has been struggling but they are a really good team, they play at home and I expect this game to be the one that puts them on the map as they play a really poor team in Colorado State.
Spread went up to -16.5 and Oregon still won easily by 30 points.

Cavs -3.5 vs Pacers
STK 2 @1.90

Cavs are red hot right now, they play against the Pacers and the line is too low for this Cavs team. Should be a comfortable win for this Cavs.
Pacers won, Cavs didnt played like they have.

Raptors -5.5 vs Memphis
1.9 STK 2

Raptors is for me one of the most underated team in the NBA. They play against this Memphis team who is 2-8 last 10 games and they have covered the spread in just a few times in that time. Raptors should be favorites by at least 10 points as this Memphis team is going downhill since they fired their coach.
Memphis went up by 10+ but they choked at the end, easy win for the Raptors.

Boston Celtics to win vs Spurs
STK 2 @2.35

Could never go wrong betting on this Celtics team. Their defense is the best in the NBA and when the time comes Kyrie Irving comes in clutch in the 4th quarter. Celtics are a young team and they play at a nice pace and they should beat this veteran Spurs team.
Manu with a game winner 3 at the end lost us this bet.

Georgia State -3.5 vs Montana
STK 2 @1.90

Montana comes from a 54 point scoring night against Stanford, really poor offensive and defensive night for them and they play against this Georgia State that is 5-3 and are playing some decent offense this year.
Gergia was up by 15+ points, ended up winning by 3 at the end so we lost it.

VCU +13.5 vs Setton Hall
STK 2 @1.90

VCU is underrated this year, this is their first away home and they play the 19th ranked team in the nation. They have played 2 though teams in the year and they kept the game close to a single digit game, I expect the same in this game.
VCU played really bad, Setton Hall got into a run in the first half and VCU couldnt keep up.

Tulsa +10.5 vs KState
STK 2 @1.90

KState has not played any good teams besides Arizona State, number 15th ranked and only lost by 2. But this team can play really good against high ranked teams but against bad teams they are a mess. I expect them to win against Tulsa but 10 points is just too much.
Tulsa even won the game, played really well.

UNLV -4.5 vs Illinois
STK 4 @ 1.90

Another STK 4. We are 2-0 in this STK 4 and only do this when Im really confident about a bet. The line is at -4.5 when it oppened at -6.5. When in my opinion it should be at a -10.5 for UNLV. They are 5-1 at home where Illinois havent won on the road (0-2). UNLV is 7-2 for the year and a great 7-2 against the spread as well, Big Ten conference has been struggling and I just dont see this game being as close as the oddmakers think.
Another win in a STK 4. 3-0 on those at 1.9 odds.

Arizona State +14.5 vs Kansas
STK 2 @1.90

Arizona State is one of the best teams in the Nation, for me, they are easily between the top 10 in the NCAA. Scoring about 90 points per game their offense is the key to winning all their games. They play a Kansas team that played last night and lost against a 20 point underdog Washington. The line is WAY TOO HIGH. I expect this game to be really close but its at Allen Fieldhouse, thats the reason why I decided not to make it a STK 4. Still think is a really good bet.
Arizona State even won the game.

Washington Redskins vs. Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
STK 2 @2.00

Redskins come from a poor show against the Cowbows while the Chargers have a really good defense. The line should be at about -9.5 for the Chargers but its actually coming down to -6 or -5.5 in some websites. Take the Chargers here.

Celtics ML vs Pistons
STK 2 @1.83

I dont know how the Celtics started as underdogs in this game, the Pistons have lost 5 in a row while the Celtics are on fire, Celtics last lost was against the Spurs at San Antonio where Manu made a winning 3 at the end. Now the line has shifted and Celtics are favorites now, should win this game with no problem.
Easy win for both teams. Here are the stats now:
Overall
+24.41 Units


College Basketball
17W-7L
+19.90 Units
JesVarez (OP)
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December 12, 2017, 03:37:49 AM
Last edit: December 12, 2017, 05:45:20 AM by JesVarez
 #117

Raptors -4.5 vs Clippers
STK 2 @1.90

Betting on Raptors again. Clippers stil hace Patrick Beverley and Blake Griffin out. Clippers have won 1 of their last 5 games, a game winning 3 against the wizards without John Wall. In the other hand, Raptors are on a 6 game winning streak and have all their players healthy. Just because the Clippers are home is the reason why the line is not that high.

Warriors -8.5 vs Blazers
STK 2 @1.90

Warriors without steph curry again. But they have played well the past games. At home they should beat the blazers without a problem.
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December 12, 2017, 11:16:59 PM
Last edit: December 27, 2017, 06:22:33 AM by JesVarez
 #118

NHL
GAME: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Vegas Golden Knights
PICK: Vegas Golden Knights ML @1.77 STK 2

Vegas are 4-0 against the spread last 4 games, while Hurricanes are 1-5 last 6 games. Hurricanes doesnt have as many depth as the Knights and that will cost them this game.

NCAA
GAME: Miss St. Bulldogs vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
PICK: Cincinnati Bearcats -12.5 @1.90 STK 2

#17 in the nation receives the Miss State Bulldogs that havent lost a game, but havent played anyone worth a look in all of those games. Take the Bearcats.
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December 14, 2017, 12:50:20 AM
Last edit: December 27, 2017, 06:26:20 AM by JesVarez
 #119

STK 4
GAME: Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Nashville Predators ML @1.70 STK 4

Predators have a really good defensive team, they are 5-1 Against the Spread in the last 6 games against a team with a losing record. Vancouver is ranked 27th in the NHL in Scoring and I dont they they have enough arguments to win this game.
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December 15, 2017, 12:04:07 AM
Last edit: December 28, 2017, 02:09:14 AM by JesVarez
 #120

STK 2 @1.96
WAS Capitals +1.5 + Warriors -5.5

Capitals are the better team and they are underdogs in some sports books, we will get the +1.5 goals, I believe they can win outright but I rather play it safe. Same with the Warriors, easy game for them even without Curry but should win by 6 without a problem.
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