New Miner, should I go ASIC

[Vega]

The main problem with ASIC (imho) is after it outlived it's profitability there is no real resell value. A few months ago I built a minding rig with 4 video cards, it's making profit, then a few weeks from now I'll just take it apart and sell it at a 30% loss.

Just today I payed $7000 for a KNCminer ASIC, that I really hope will arrive (in time), because it will have almost no resell value after the next gen rigs push difficulty into the high hundred millions, billions.

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[pheaonix]

go with a klondike project, that is best option right now imo unless kncminer is real

[MagicBit15]

Lovely rant, and the ad hom's were priceless. Can I be your friend, youll be handy in tough places

But seriously, I was rather hoping someone would call me out on my math to see where I may have gone wrong. I especially liked OnkelPaul's calculator as is showed I was actually overestimating the ROI (it conformed my existing bias, so cool by me).

To the point, I agree that nethash prediction is the key. And this was the point I was making, that your ROI must take into account changes in difficulty, which are insanely difficult to predict. The 26% per fortnight that I quoted was actually a back-prediction from the 250BTC price to indicate the maximum rate of difficulty increase that would give a positive ROI. It was actually meant as an illustration of the sort of math you'd need to do to justify that investment (and incidentally was wildly over-optimistic as Paul's calculator shows).

I won't concede your point on inflation (or deflation as is the desired outcome for BTC). Here's why. Mining is like a cookie jar. On day one you buy a magic cookie jar. It cost you 100 cookies in the first place (or you may have got your mom to buy it for you using her dollar credit/debit card), but its worth it because its magic. But you can only take out a few cookies cookies every day (that's mining for you). The first day you get to take 16 cookies, yum. But the second day you can only take 8, and on the third you get 4 cookies. Now how many cookies will you eat before you die of old age (allowing fractions of course)? Did you get your 100 cookies back? That's the nub of the difficulty increase argument.

Now your point is that those cookies are rare, rare treats that nobody can bake any more, the recipe is lost. After a few years they are so valuable that you can command almost any price. Luckily your magic cookie jar is still churning out a few crumbs of dust every day, so you're rich. But you'd be so, so much richer if you'd never bought that damn jar in the first place and just kept your 100 cookies in a nice safe cupboard.

Of course if your magic cookie jar had let you take only eight cookies per day, but halved it every week rather than every day, you'd be in profit, but only just. So can you predict what your jar will allow you to take before handing over your cookies?

That was fun, can we do it again? 

I mean you pretty much just agreed with me here so I can't really retort. Thanks for I guess admitting your own logical fallacy originally and agreeing with mine? Also, I do like your cookie analogy, but I never disagreed with that point of view. In fact I elaborated on it, and re-explained it. If you actually read Part 2, you saw why Price is an important decision, and why you disregarding it defies the entire core value of this question and Bitcoin as a whole. But from your response you did not, so again, Thank you for another Victory.

[MagicBit15]

haha best post ever...

i must agree with J35st3r tho, a machine now for 250btc will probably not make an ROI in YEARS, seeing as more and more asics comming in,, asicminer growing + 100TH mine possibly comming into play soon.. and when 100TH comes in it will be battles between more and more hashrates of ~100TH comming in to play everytime, ,

just my opionion though, but OP seems to be badass at predicting the future,,, if i had 250btc i would sell half or a quarter at whatever peak i see in the next few months and put the rest in a safe

I mean apparently everyone here is John Nash in the newbie board so yeah, let's be unreasonable!! Woo lack of knowledge!!

I'll Lay 4:1 in escrow on a 12 month cycle having a positive ROI from the date of either this thread or my first post here. No one will take it because they know their wrong and I'm right, it's all hearsay.

But I love free BTC so hit me up.

if i had 250btc i would sell half or a quarter at whatever peak i see in the next few months and put the rest in a safe

Me too, just wait for the rewards to halve. In 2017 your going to be very happy, and 2026 VERY HAPPY, in 20?? BRBBUYINGANISLAND

[J35st3r]

I mean you pretty much just agreed with me here so I can't really retort. Thanks for I guess admitting your own logical fallacy originally and agreeing with mine? Also, I do like your cookie analogy, but I never disagreed with that point of view. In fact I elaborated on it, and re-explained it. If you actually read Part 2, you saw why Price is an important decision, and why you disregarding it defies the entire core value of this question and Bitcoin as a whole. But from your response you did not, so again, Thank you for another Victory.

Cool, everybody's happy then

Well, your language is a little combative, but if that's what floats your boat, then Victory Is Yours.

Can I come to the celebration party? Its just that I've recently lost this posting battle on the net and I need cheering up 

[MagicBit15]

I mean you pretty much just agreed with me here so I can't really retort. Thanks for I guess admitting your own logical fallacy originally and agreeing with mine? Also, I do like your cookie analogy, but I never disagreed with that point of view. In fact I elaborated on it, and re-explained it. If you actually read Part 2, you saw why Price is an important decision, and why you disregarding it defies the entire core value of this question and Bitcoin as a whole. But from your response you did not, so again, Thank you for another Victory.

Cool, everybody's happy then

Well, your language is a little combative, but if that's what floats your boat, then Victory Is Yours.

Can I come to the celebration party? Its just that I've recently lost this posting battle on the net and I need cheering up 

I thought I was pretty tame actually, but then again you haven't seen me at the golf course.

Ya let's group buy 1k BTC off of Coinlabs and figure out what Cruise Ship is the most expensive for our after party. <Insert party hat>

[MagicBit15]

1.) Expert mode is interesting, but that is really all it is, interesting. (Great Calculator BTW, Somehow I have missed it all this time!!)

Thx 
No wonder you missed it all the time, because it just wasn't there all the time, we just implemented it a few days ago.

.....


Onkel Paul

Oh well that would be the reason then Yeah nice plug, I am going to spread the word, Great Work on it!!

[J35st3r]

[a let's group buy 1k BTC off of Coinlabs and figure out what Cruise Ship is the most expensive for our after party. <Insert party hat>

I'm in 

But this is getting rather seriously OT now, lets leave it to the noobs (I'm 80% of the way to becoming a full member now, not bad for 3 days, YAY! Now what does that say about the rating system?).

[MagicBit15]

[a let's group buy 1k BTC off of Coinlabs and figure out what Cruise Ship is the most expensive for our after party. <Insert party hat>

I'm in 

But this is getting rather seriously OT now, lets leave it to the noobs (I'm 80% of the way to becoming a full member now, not bad for 3 days, YAY! Now what does that say about the rating system?).

IDK I registered originally in October when I got into bits, forgot everything and re-registered in january. I have no idea what their scale is, I just post as I see fit lol.

[KSV]

if u think the value of BTC is going to 1K, get it. . .if u think the value is gonna drop, forget it.

[jusatest]

I've always truly wondered if mining was really worth the initial investment for a decent return, obviously installing silent miners on a botnet is a whole different manner...yet that seems the only true way to see a decent return, at least in my eyes.

[J35st3r]

if u think the value of BTC is going to 1K, get it. . .if u think the value is gonna drop, forget it.

I think you need to re-read some of the earlier posts in the thread. Not wanting to go over old ground with MagicBit15, but ROI is best measured in BTC not USD (but rise in exchange rate is a bonus, OK MagicBit).

Now having said that, maybe a bit more of the OT in reply to MagicBit. I jJoined 3 days ago to have a but of fun posting (been lurking ages), thought I'd see how quick I can make it to Full Member without completely spamming the threads. Hope I've made some useful contribution on the way. 9 posts to go, Perhaps I can make hero by the end of the month? Or bust more like

[MagicBit15]

if u think the value of BTC is going to 1K, get it. . .if u think the value is gonna drop, forget it.

Do you just not read threads at all? lmao

[greetou]

I've been trying to do the math on whether I should wait or just pay the high prices now for the few ASICs available. 

[J35st3r]

I've been trying to do the math on whether I should wait or just pay the high prices now for the few ASICs available. 

This seems like a useful overview https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=209750.0

And the calculator http://coinish.com/calc will help you do the math. Use expert mode, and your crystal ball to predict the likely difficulty rise, these threads may help https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=81.0

Good Luck. Its all beyond my ken so I'm staying out for now.