[2017-10-10] Collapse of Bitcoin Inevitable According to Harvard Economics Profe

[gokayc]

Bitcoin's future is undoubtedly tough to predict. The pundits either believe it will go to the moon or collapse. The latest to join the league of those predicting the demise of Bitcoin is Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University.
Who is Kenneth Rogoff?

Ken Rogoff is a professor of public policy and economics at Harvard University. He has a distinguished academic background, with degrees from Yale University and MIT. He served as the chief economist of the IMF from 2001 to 2003 and is a chess grandmaster. With such a background, it is inevitable that his views on Bitcoin attract a lot of attention.
Dim Views on Bitcoin

In a blog post in the Guardian, Ken Rogoff writes:

    "Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin the biggest bubble in the world today, or a great investment bet on the cutting edge of new-age financial technology? My best guess is that in the long run, the technology will thrive, but that the price of Bitcoin will collapse."

While he acknowledges that certain governments like Japan have taken the lead in regulating and accepting virtual currencies, he attributes it to a desire to become the global leader of fintech. He expects most governments to ignore Bitcoin when used for small, anonymous transactions; but act against it once Bitcoin becomes more widely used.

    "The long history of currency tells us that what the private sector innovates, the state eventually regulates and appropriates. I have no idea where Bitcoin’s price will go over the next couple years, but there is no reason to expect virtual currency to avoid a similar fate."

Echoes Jamie Dimon's Arguments

Ken Rogoff's arguments for Bitcoin's eventual collapse seem to echo Jamie Dimon's views - that governments will not allow Bitcoin to become successful and will coerce Bitcoin users into abandoning it. When asked about the government's ability to shut down a currency which is virtual and knows no boundaries, Jamie had even added that governments could threaten Bitcoin users with jail. It is interesting to note that all the prophesies about Bitcoin's demise come from people within the establishment, whose very future Bitcoin threatens.
Eventually...

The professor has predicted that Bitcoin will eventually collapse, but has given no time frame for this to occur. Hence it is impossible for him to be proven wrong, even if each Bitcoin becomes worth a million dollars, as it might still eventually collapse. Analysts who work in the real world (as opposed to theoreticians) have to make time-bound predictions. There is a lot of difference between an asset's price doubling in two years and doubling in twenty years.
Remember Professor Bitcorn?

Comparisons with predictions made by another professor, Mark Williams, will be inevitable. Mark William was dubbed "Professor Bitcorn" after he bravely predicted in December 2013 that Bitcoins would be worth less than $10 by mid-2014. When Bitcoin remained at over $600 in June 2014, he remained defiant and stated that time would vindicate his prediction. By refusing to specify a time frame for his projection, Ken Rogoff has at least avoided Mark Williams' fate.


https://cointelegraph.com/news/collapse-of-bitcoin-inevitable-according-to-harvard-economics-professor

[Gotottack]

I agree for a whole lot of reasons. It is collapsible in a sense that it can be blocked by bigger economies thereby resulting to depreciating and or losing all our Bitcoin accounts. It is an intangible property/investment/asset which means it can always shut down on its own without running the risk of having to face legal charges. What amazes me is despite all these irregularities and anonymity, it still is very popular. Its popularity being at par to its ever rising value.

[gentlemand]

Do articles like these even need an author any more? You can take some ingredients from previous articles, mix them up a bit and come out with a new one every day of the year.

What almost all of the tracts of this nature leave out is the technological discovery aspect. It's not just a new version of an old market. It's a completely new thing. That potentially nullifies all expected market behaviour because there's never been anything like it before.

When all humans have investigated it and come up with their opinion on it, that's when you can throw the usual clapped out predictions around. Until then - fuck off.

[aso118]

I agree for a whole lot of reasons. It is collapsible in a sense that it can be blocked by bigger economies thereby resulting to depreciating and or losing all our Bitcoin accounts. It is an intangible property/investment/asset which means it can always shut down on its own without running the risk of having to face legal charges. What amazes me is despite all these irregularities and anonymity, it still is very popular. Its popularity being at par to its ever rising value.

It is possible. but I would categorize it as a low probability event. The problem comes when it is called "inevitable". That is when I think these academicians have foot-in-mouth disease.

[Lampaster]

I don't trust the Analytics of existing economists. they all think in patterns which are applicable to Fiat. Cryptocurrency is quite another. No one knows what will happen in the future. Why doesn't he predict the collapse of the dollar? America has the largest public debt. I think that now everything depends on for what purpose people will use bitcoin. But the fact that the price can't constantly grow that's for sure. Someday we will see a drop.

[TraderTimm]

This is coming from the same guy that was responsible for "austerity" policies that governments followed, punishing savers and pensioners.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-reinhart-and-rogoff-controversy-a-summing-up

While nothing will last until the heat death of the universe, I think Rogoff is just stirring the pot without any true insight.

I'd say that distributed blockchains will be here long after Rogoff is gone.

[jubalix]

Lets deconstruct  Ken Rogoff.

    "Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin the biggest bubble in the world today, or a great investment bet on the cutting edge of new-age financial technology? My best guess is that in the long run, the technology will thrive, but that the price of Bitcoin will collapse."

Ok true to the extent it may not be BTC that takes wins,


"While he acknowledges that certain governments like Japan have taken the lead in regulating and accepting virtual currencies, he attributes it to a desire to become the global leader of fintech."

Yes it will bring a lot of wealth, jobs and tech, in the trillions, how exactly are you going to pay a state not to do this.


    "The long history of currency tells us that what the private sector innovates, the state eventually regulates and appropriates. I have no idea where Bitcoin’s price will go over the next couple years, but there is no reason to expect virtual currency to avoid a similar fate."


and appropriates

giving its usual meaning, this is the whole point of Bitcoin. You cannot appropriate it. That's the whole point, and even if you could, due to some flaw, there are a thousand alts ready to go, that have increasingly better tech and will adopt resistant tech.

another way of putting it BTC lets you enjoy a lot of the incidents of being a sovereign actor. Who would rationally not want this?

It seems these people have not read the white paper and thought through the purpose of BTC.

Any way Mr. Ken Rogoff see you at 21T as you hold your neo-Weimar Republic fiat.

[1Referee]

I like articles like these, I can almost smell their fear. I am not sure how many of these articles I have been reading through in the last years, but they all ramble on how Bitcoin will fail, collapse, or gets overtaken, but in all cases they fail to provide any factual information on why their 'thoughts' might even have a slight form of potential reality. If the stubborn and mildly delusional average joes at some point realize that their government is nothing but an obstacle for them, they in their quantity have the power to completely overrule their government and banks by jumping into Bitcoin. I wish these people for once had the balls to actually start such a revolution.