Bitcoin value factors

[spastic]

Has there ever been made an objective analysis of the factors behind the value of BTC?

Interesting thing to know would be just what percentage of BTC value is driven by:

- criminal enterprises, such as those who are cashing out stolen credit cards and compromised pay pal accounts into the BTC
- people using BTC to obtain illegal items, like drugs, arms, and counterfeits 
- all varieties of scams/cons
- absurdities like Vanuatu citizenship, potentially also possible to (miss)use for illegal enterprises 
- legal retail in shops, grocery stores, gas pumps, hotels, investments, travel...
- speculation, obsession with quick profit, and complete disregard from actually ever branching away from fiat money   

Side note: the credit card fraud losses for 2016, globally, are estimated at $21.84 Billion, annual global drugs trade is worth around $435 billion a year.


   

[~Bitcoin~]

- criminal enterprises, such as those who are cashing out stolen credit cards and compromised pay pal accounts into the BTC
- people using BTC to obtain illegal items, like drugs, arms, and counterfeits 
- all varieties of scams/cons
- absurdities like Vanuatu citizenship, potentially also possible to (miss)use for illegal enterprises 
- legal retail in shops, grocery stores, gas pumps, hotels, investments, travel...
- speculation, obsession with quick profit, and complete disregard from actually ever branching away from fiat money   

In simple word all of the above are keeping the value of bitcoin but even paper cash are used by drug dealers and scammers so why we should only blame bitcoin for being used by criminals.

Everything have both positive and negative uses and same goes for bitcoin. Bitcoin is more about financial freedom. People can buy anything they like with the money they have...

[Lampaster]

Objectively no one knows the real value of bitcoin. In its price there are a lot of investment from speculative capital. If whales dramatically it will lead nobody knows what will be the price in this case. As for the use of bitcoin for criminal purposes then I can assure you it is not. All users of bitcoin in order to buy something often exchange it for Fiat. In fact, illegal transactions take place behind Fiat.

[spastic]

In simple word all of the above are keeping the value of bitcoin but even paper cash are used by drug dealers and scammers so why we should only blame bitcoin for being used by criminals.

I assume it can be safe to say criminal activities have little influence on the valuation of the fiat money, if you disregard central banking as a criminal activity. Paper cash is not the subject of discussion.

The better question here is, just how much of a driving force criminal activities are, when it comes to value and possession of BTC.

Fiat money, if you have a lot of it, can also give you financial freedom.

[Reid]

You have the numbers and yet didnt post links if they are all facts. Is the media still reliable when it comes to this kind of news.
Are those real news or just created ones?
I still see that the factor is rhe people that keeps on buying it. Every day addition to the population who believes in the crypto world makes a huge impact.

[spastic]

As for the use of bitcoin for criminal purposes then I can assure you it is not. All users of bitcoin in order to buy something often exchange it for Fiat. In fact, illegal transactions take place behind Fiat.

Somehow, somewhere, someone...gets Your CC/CVV. They then sell that information for BTC, and exchange BTC into fiat. A buyer will then use the information to obtain BTC, and then sell it for fiat. BTC is the main in between medium.

Or you have a drug seller, the buyer will obtain BTC, buy the drug using BTC...etc again BTC is the medium of exchange, keeping up the demand, adding to its value?

[liuqi]

You have the numbers and yet didnt post links if they are all facts. Is the media still reliable when it comes to this kind of news.
Are those real news or just created ones?
I still see that the factor is rhe people that keeps on buying it. Every day addition to the population who believes in the crypto world makes a huge impact.

Its waste to believe the news published by the any media because all the news are set up by the political leaders and corporates. Since they in controlled yet.
Most of the media pass the critics about the bitcoin mostly you may get the bad news mostly instead of bitcoins.
Always bubble we expect but bad news shared by JPmorgan team or others would pull down the value always.

[craZyLovE0916]

As for the use of bitcoin for criminal purposes then I can assure you it is not. All users of bitcoin in order to buy something often exchange it for Fiat. In fact, illegal transactions take place behind Fiat.

Somehow, somewhere, someone...gets Your CC/CVV. They then sell that information for BTC, and exchange BTC into fiat. A buyer will then use the information to obtain BTC, and then sell it for fiat. BTC is the main in between medium.

Or you have a drug seller, the buyer will obtain BTC, buy the drug using BTC...etc again BTC is the medium of exchange, keeping up the demand, adding to its value?

I am surprised more online banking/credit cards are not stolen.

[spastic]

You have the numbers and yet didnt post links if they are all facts.

source CC fraud: https://www.nilsonreport.com/upload/content_promo/The_Nilson_Report_10-17-2016.pdf
source for drugs number (this one puts it even higher): http://www.gfintegrity.org/report/transnational-crime-and-the-developing-world/

There are also standard news links available via google, citing about the same numbers.

[aoluain]

because of Bitcoin's anonymity it is hard to get factual evidence
we can only speculate and while the OP's assertions are correct
regarding the Bitcoin drivers

"- criminal enterprises, such as those who are cashing out stolen credit cards and compromised pay pal accounts into the BTC
- people using BTC to obtain illegal items, like drugs, arms, and counterfeits
- all varieties of scams/cons
- absurdities like Vanuatu citizenship, potentially also possible to (miss)use for illegal enterprises
- legal retail in shops, grocery stores, gas pumps, hotels, investments, travel...
- speculation, obsession with quick profit, and complete disregard from actually ever branching away from fiat money"

all of the above are not unique to Bitcoin it can all happen with
FIAT, Gold, Cars or whatever is tradable. Whre I live there are
criminals breaking into unoccupied houses to steal the copper
plumbing to trade into cash to further trade into any of the above.

[RoommateAgreement]

- criminal enterprises, such as those who are cashing out stolen credit cards and compromised pay pal accounts into the BTC

i disagree.
maybe back in 2009 that many thought bitcoin is anonymous and also back when "blockchain analysis" companies didn't exist and the real anon coins weren't popular.

these days most people know bitcoin is not anonymous.
there are blockchain analysis companies
and there are anon coins such as XMR which are being used to cover tracks.

which means this can not have that big a effect on bitcoin to even be considered as a "factor".

- people using BTC to obtain illegal items, like drugs, arms, and counterfeits

illegal activities are all in the same group. and all of them are much easier with cash than they are with bitcoin. it has also much less risk to do it with cash.

- all varieties of scams/cons

scams drive the price down not up. (unless that is what you meant)

[spastic]

because of Bitcoin's anonymity it is hard to get factual evidence

It is not quite anonymous, and criminal enterprises find a way to use stolen information for indirect BTC purchases.

[spastic]

i disagree.
maybe back in 2009 that many thought bitcoin is anonymous and also back when "blockchain analysis" companies didn't exist and the real anon coins weren't popular.

these days most people know bitcoin is not anonymous.
there are blockchain analysis companies
and there are anon coins such as XMR which are being used to cover tracks.

which means this can not have that big a effect on bitcoin to even be considered as a "factor".

So what would be the main driving factor in your opinion?
Not every BTC sale is from miners. What is the main driving force for purchases, if criminal enterprises are disregarded?
Buy low, sell high? Search daily for a new fool hoping to make a quick buck? What happens when you run out of fools?

[RoommateAgreement]

i disagree.
maybe back in 2009 that many thought bitcoin is anonymous and also back when "blockchain analysis" companies didn't exist and the real anon coins weren't popular.

these days most people know bitcoin is not anonymous.
there are blockchain analysis companies
and there are anon coins such as XMR which are being used to cover tracks.

which means this can not have that big a effect on bitcoin to even be considered as a "factor".

So what would be the main driving factor in your opinion?
Not every BTC sale is from miners. What is the main driving force for purchases, if criminal enterprises are disregarded?
Buy low, sell high? Search daily for a new fool hoping to make a quick buck? What happens when you run out of fools?

you have already kind of mentioned 2 of them which i didn't quote above.
but mainly the reasons are two things:
- more investors seeing the good performance of bitcoin and starting to buy it. scarcity is in favor of this and leads to more rise. bitcoin is global and there are a lot of people who still don't know about it. the reason can be store of value (something gold like) or seeing it as the decentralized money or just to make more money like Forex. the result is the same regardless of reason.

- more adoption as a currency. all the shops and big or small businesses who accept bitcoin. the purchases using bitcoin which are also tax-free in some countries also is a nice perk. imagine you buy bitcoin, earn bitcoin,... when it is $4000 and then buy some stuff with it when it is $4500 without paying any taxes. that is 2 times profit.

[MelisaMoris]

Has there ever been made an objective analysis of the factors behind the value of BTC?

Interesting thing to know would be just what percentage of BTC value is driven by:

- criminal enterprises, such as those who are cashing out stolen credit cards and compromised pay pal accounts into the BTC
- people using BTC to obtain illegal items, like drugs, arms, and counterfeits 
- all varieties of scams/cons
- absurdities like Vanuatu citizenship, potentially also possible to (miss)use for illegal enterprises 
- legal retail in shops, grocery stores, gas pumps, hotels, investments, travel...
- speculation, obsession with quick profit, and complete disregard from actually ever branching away from fiat money   

Side note: the credit card fraud losses for 2016, globally, are estimated at $21.84 Billion, annual global drugs trade is worth around $435 billion a year.


   

but what about paying bitcoins of terrorist operations?

[spastic]

you have already kind of mentioned 2 of them which i didn't quote above.
but mainly the reasons are two things:
- more investors seeing the good performance of bitcoin and starting to buy it. scarcity is in favor of this and leads to more rise. bitcoin is global and there are a lot of people who still don't know about it. the reason can be store of value (something gold like) or seeing it as the decentralized money or just to make more money like Forex. the result is the same regardless of reason.

- more adoption as a currency. all the shops and big or small businesses who accept bitcoin. the purchases using bitcoin which are also tax-free in some countries also is a nice perk. imagine you buy bitcoin, earn bitcoin,... when it is $4000 and then buy some stuff with it when it is $4500 without paying any taxes. that is 2 times profit.

What gives BTC good performance? What drives the demand? What drives people into buying it, aside from cashing out, why do people buy it...and given this good performance...why do people sell it? Why not stick to it?

Adoption? Are there grocery stores accepting BTC? Real estate? Car dealers? Travel agents (not counting those with "super extra" Expedia discounts and such)
And those few dealers who actually do accept BTC, what do they do with it? Do they Keep it, or make a sell order asap?

[Almat]

It would be nearly impossible to conduct accurate studies in this area, mainly because Bitcoin is decentralized and anonymous. I can say with some certainty that its value is mostly drived by public perception though. It follows the rule of supply and demand after all.

[KeenMiner]

I feel like speculation accounts for a large portion of its current value (Not that its value is over/under valued).
The more people buying bitcoin the higher the price is likely to go, and with all the media attention over the last few years its not surprising investment firms and the likes have their eyes on Bitcoin.

[spastic]

but what about paying bitcoins of terrorist operations?

Don't know anything about that. Theoretically it could be possible.

Allegedly credit card fraud was used to enable financing for  Bali bombings.