It usually drops a bit right before the fork and rises after that. I wouldn't be surprised if we drop to less than $5000, but I expect to be at the $6000 mark, if not $7000, at the end of the year.
Could not agree more. That spike was not due to the upcoming fork. I explained in a post what the spike was due to... and also that it was good news for the "future" of Bitcoin, moving forward, not necessarily in the short term... although it obviously sparked confidence and the end result of that was inevitably an immediate spike in value. But right now there is uncertainty. Although I've seen the "poll" on the site I use to check the flow chart for the value of Bitcoins (coindesk). There was a poll asking about the upcoming fork. The choices were a) you thought the fork would be a good thing, and would be likely to actually invest more, b) you expected it to be a bad thing, and would invest less, and c) you haven't made up your mind yet and are sitting on the sidelines. "a)" ended up being the overwhelming favorite. But keep in mind the people answering these polls are people that have money invested in Bitcoin, and they're not giving objective answers, just trying to manipulate people for their own ends so they see that answer and follow suit. In reality, the objective answer would be an overwhelming "c)"... it's an unknown. And honestly people would be best waiting on the sidelines. Every time I see one of those polls the answers are ones that favor having confidence in Bitcoin, by a vast majority. But it was even proven fallible when one day they asked a fake question about things that didn't actually exist. It asked what you had the most confidence in, and named some type of Bitcoin & Etherum branches that didn't actually exist, along with the option "I never heard of either of these things"... which was the only true answer. It came in dead last, with the non-existent Bitcoin branch of course coming in first by a wide margin.
I said when it got close to 6K it would hit a wall and probably go down to the low-mid 5000's shortly after. And now it'll probably drop even further due to uncertainty, and honestly the best thing to do is probably to sit on the sidelines for a bit. Or if you're a mover it would've been wise to get out when it neared 6K. Or if it does again, even get to 5700 or so, if you're the type that moves your money around... I'm just keeping it real here and trying to look out for everybody, and above all be honest, even if it's not what you want to hear as I've said many times. Not nearly enough people are doing this and it causes more harm than good in the end. People end up with a false sense of security, which isn't a good thing. It can cause them to lose money.
I also believe there's a good chance it will fall back below 5K again. But in the long run things are looking much better know than they did even short week ago. A lot of news recently suggests that BTC has lasting power, and isn't going anywhere. But unfortunately in the very short term is may go somewhere we don't want it to go... back down. But it will be temporary, until the smoke settles.
I'd say it'll get down to around 4700 or so pretty soon, then stabilize for a few days. That will just be from the initial uncertainty period just before & during the fork. Afterward expect another drop. It could very well sit around 4K, just above or below. As someone else said though this will only encourage new investors, and the ones that move their money around to re-invest too. And thus it climbs again. And by the end of the year it will be between 6-7K. And I still believe that by the end of 2018 breaking the 5 digit barrier is a very real possibility. So if you choose to hold for the long haul you're certainly not going to hurt yourself. It's just that some people like to maximize their profits instead and move their money, try to get in & out at the right times, and I'm trying to be here for both of them. I personally keep a certain amount in at all times, to stay, about 30% of my total BTC assets. And move the other 70% based on empirical evidence/data, trends, and my gut... and it's tended to be right almost every time up to this point... unfortunately in this case. I'd love to be wrong this time, but I don't suspect that I am and it appears I'm not alone. When I came in here I lurked at first to see what other people thought as well... people whose info. I've learned to trust and who I believe to be objective, and generally they're saying the same thing. Which makes me believe I'm on the right track that much more.
But again, fear not in the long term. I don't want this post to be all doom & gloom. It will rebound, and you can still all be rich some day, if you play your cards right. But there's a better chance of that happening if you get your money in & out at the right times... just saying. We have a network of knowledgeable, and above all else objective people in here that can help you make those decisions, if you know who to listen to... and not just the ones that tell you what you want to hear. A clear-cut sign of this type is that they always tell you what you want to hear. That's not reality. News isn't always good. Look for people that tell it both ways. And people that have a good track record of accurate predictions. Who knows, someone in here might even be getting inside information?... you never know. If you come across someone with an uncanny ability to say something and then see that come to fruition, latch on to them and follow suit when they say something. I happen to have noticed 1 person in here like that actually. Not saying they're an insider but when they talk, err... type, I listen.
