Prediction: price will be stable or rise when Gox trading resumes

[qualia8]

Analysis.  Some account holders at BTC had lots of bitcoins and wanted out.  They withdrew, transferred to Tradehill and sold.  (Why would they delay, if they were panicky?)  Thus, the price has dropped a bit from $17 at Tradehill down to $15.  Thus, the sellers of BTC have already cashed them out.

That leaves people with lots of cash in Mt. Gox.  Some want out and some are content to leave it parked there or to play the market there.  Those who leave their cash in Gox will, if anything, push prices up when trading resumes.  Others want to get their cash out ASAP.  They will either use Dwolla or wire service from MtGox itself, or if they don't trust Mt. Gox they will buy BTC, transfer them to Tradehill or some other exchange, and sell BTC there and get wire / Dwolla from the other exchange.  Either way, it's no difference to BTC price, as they're moving dollars to dollars.

tl;dr -- the selloff has already happened.

[1714909856]

1714909856

[1714909856]

1714909856

[Teej]

What makes you think cash didn't get pulled just as fast as btc?

[stic.man]

What makes you think cash didn't get pulled just as fast as btc?

$1000/day limit plus you can take out 100btc which is worth at least $1500 right now

[DrYe5]

Analysis.  Some account holders at BTC had lots of bitcoins and wanted out.  They withdrew, transferred to Tradehill and sold.  (Why would they delay, if they were panicky?)  Thus, the price has dropped a bit from $17 at Tradehill down to $15.  Thus, the sellers of BTC have already cashed them out.

That leaves people with lots of cash in Mt. Gox.  Some want out and some are content to leave it parked there or to play the market there.  Those who leave their cash in Gox will, if anything, push prices up when trading resumes.  Others want to get their cash out ASAP.  They will either use Dwolla or wire service from MtGox itself, or if they don't trust Mt. Gox they will buy BTC, transfer them to Tradehill or some other exchange, and sell BTC there and get wire / Dwolla from the other exchange.  Either way, it's no difference to BTC price, as they're moving dollars to dollars.

tl;dr -- the selloff has already happened.

I don't know. A prediction this detailed requires supporting data. Right now this is just a load of conjecture.

[NO_SLAVE]

its going to $600,  no really, we'll maybe not right away.

[qualia8]

it IS just a conjecture.  8 million different things could happen between now and then.  it's just my best guess based on the current info.

[Hook^]

That may be true, but I am still putting in orders for much lower bitcoin prices in case it drops a bunch.  I would be negligent if I didn't and the market cratered.

[Bigpiggy01]

Conjecture yes. Unfounded NO I agree with this "prediction"

[Yeti]

+1

And seeing that TradeHill prices are on the rise again, a lot of people - surprisingly - did not panic.

I have to admit, I was wary at first but the way Magical Mark handled all of this restored some of my confidence. Seeing my balance untouched after almost a week of outage AND the user database out in the wild felt very good. If anything, this incident made Mt. Gox safer and thus stronger in the future.

Since I can't be around for the opening bell I will just leave my BTC at Gox and see what happened when I come back home. Or next week. Or next month. I'm in it for the long run anyway.

[Atom]

I for one am standing with a big net cast waiting to catch the BTC if they truly drop.  I don't think I'm alone out here with my big net    This bull market is just getting started lol

[YoYa]

Some sunny spells with scatter showers. Rain's clearing later but with the occasional mist here and there. Occasional gusts of wind followed by spells of calm. Prices varying in the range of 0.1 to OMFGBBQWTF!!!!


Goldman Sachs here I come!