How fast will ASIC prices fall?

[bilsef]

Since the reward for mining is constant, the value of GH/s decreases as more hashing power is added to the network.  ASIC prices will have to go down to stay competitive.  I guess that is why the companies that have ASICs are trying to sell them as fast as they can.

[J35st3r]

We're in a Gold Rush. Too many people buying ASIC pre-orders without doing the math on the ROI. Most of them will get burned as they will never recover their investment (regardless of how much BTC appreciates agains the $). If you spend 2.0BTCon a block eruptor and it mines you only 1.0BTC over its entire life, you still lost 1.0BTC (and its even worse if that BTC is now worth $10000, you should have kept your 2.0BTC in your wallet instead).

In a Gold Rush only the guys selling the shovels make money. The ASIC manufacturers are laughing all the way to the bank as most of their cost is already spent in FOAK investment. But they'll only drop the price when the punters stop ordering, so do your math on the ROI carefully, and don't feed the bubble.

[Inglewood]

As fast as the BTC value (so not any time soon probably)

[Wotan777]

By the end of this year (2013) the network hash capacity will be 400 - 500 THash/sec.
The "first generation" ASIC miners will become pactically useless.
But even then the nooks, who can't (and won't) make their arithmetic lesson, will keep the price high.

The big processor manufacturers should integrate the hashing Asic into their processor design.

[J35st3r]

The big processor manufacturers should integrate the hashing Asic into their processor design.

Intel's newest processors do include dedicated crypto cores. But they are designed for general crypto work, not the highly optimised bitcoin double hash that our ASIC-CO's are churning out, so not competitive.

[mmpoiu]

The big processor manufacturers should integrate the hashing Asic into their processor design.

I don't think it's likely to happen any time soon, but it'd definitely help to ensure decentralization of the system

[zeocrash]

I bought my Asic in USD rather than BTC. That way i figure, barring a crash in the value of BTC, it shouldn't be too hard to get my $200 investment back. Now all i need to do is receive my ASIC

[Alexander The Great]

Right now id pass on ASICS and wait for the next big thing to come along.

[notung]

I think their price will be on the same range that high end GPUs are now.  The difference will be on the big rigs, as they will have 100x or 1000x performance than the cheap ones...

[Alexander The Great]

I bet price will drop 50% by end of this year.

[mco65]

Not fast enough I am afraid. 

[J35st3r]

I bought my Asic in USD rather than BTC. That way i figure, barring a crash in the value of BTC, it shouldn't be too hard to get my $200 investment back. Now all i need to do is receive my ASIC

Interesting logic, but did you check the ROI on purchase in BTC? Perhaps you should hedge your bet by buying some BTC on an exchange too?

[Entimp]

Right now id pass on ASICS and wait for the next big thing to come along.

Which is?

[Alexander The Great]

Right now id pass on ASICS and wait for the next big thing to come along.

Which is?

A year, to a year and a half id imagine

[darkryoushii]

The ASIC miners are a great thing to the network, making it much much harder to perform a 51% attack as long as the manufacturers pump out just as fast as they make them and don't keep them all for themselves.

Which is why I think they SHOULD drop in price and people SHOULD buy them and run them if they can purely to strengthen the network and do their part in the same way that people SHOULD run Tor nodes to help strengthen that network too.

[Alexander The Great]

Prices are falling as we speak

[wormbog]

ASIC prices won't fall until there's more supply than demand.

[Eva Braun]

once china starts mass producing them prices will drop through the roof.

[darkryoushii]

once china starts mass producing them prices will drop through the roof.

I do hope china adopts bitcoin at a constant rate and doesn't just abandon it like so many early adopters would have.. They must realize they are on to something surely!

[zeocrash]

I bought my Asic in USD rather than BTC. That way i figure, barring a crash in the value of BTC, it shouldn't be too hard to get my $200 investment back. Now all i need to do is receive my ASIC

Interesting logic, but did you check the ROI on purchase in BTC? Perhaps you should hedge your bet by buying some BTC on an exchange too?

I did do some quick ROI calculations before i paid for the ASIC.
I don't see my ASIC making me a huge fortune (between it's comparatively low hashing power and BFL's "relaxed" shipping policies) , but it makes for an interesting project and even if i don't break even, worst case, i've lost $200, it's not the end of the world (I never invest more than i can afford to lose).
I've hedged my investment buy buying ASICMiner stock. I bought it when it was like 0.8 BTC a share. I've easily covered the money I've spent on the ASIC and then some.