I sold my bitcoin today. I think the price jumped too much too fast. My opinion is that it will drop below 5,000 soon and in that case I will buy back again because i expect bitcoin to increase significantly in the long term.
What do you think??
That is a risky play, not many people are selling since they want to obtain free bitcoin gold, so I think you are going to need to wait for some time, because those that get bitcoin gold are going to sell it and get bitcoin with it and that is going to push the price up once again.
I agree. It might have been a premature taking of profits. The
exhale into altcoins may not be until the 2x fork as was the case in August.
It is very difficult to trade a phase transition vertical market.
Afaics, the only reason to trade into LTC/BCH in 2017 is an expectation of the failure of 2x because LTC is already 2MB (also with SegWit for SegWit believers who want to hedge) and BCH is 8MB without that insecure SegWit crap (other reasons may or may not become valid in 2018). So I doubt whether BTC has topped out yet before the fork.
However, it appears that $50ish may be resistance for LTC, so it is probably not a catastrophic error at this juncture. Probably $7000 - $10,000 upside on BTC before 2x.
Also I see the snapshot fot BTG may be Oct. 25, so perhaps he was not premature, but I think perhaps the bullishness continues until the 2x (non-)event.
We have four actual groups:
- smart strategic big money (long-term portfolios)
- professional short-term traders
- the day trader who thinks he is limiting his risks
- program traders who try to arbitrage ticks
- the average retail investor
- the fool who rushes in at the last minute
In most real good vertical markets, it is the professional short-term traders who keep trying to sell the new highs. This has been the group that has been bearish ever since 2009. They never saw new highs coming, and they still will try to sell every new high today. They falsely believe that they are “professional” and so they will be right and the average investor is the fool. But the average investor sees the trend for what it is, goes with the trend, while the short-term “professional” keeps trying to beat the market.
Thoughts?
Bitcoin Gold is a big gamble with little value but high risk.
Afaics, a FOMO pump at best and not long-term significant.
It adds nothing of long-term significance. Proof-of-work can never be truly ASIC resistant. Any proof-of-work algorithm that becomes economic to justify the capex to develop an ASIC will be put on an ASIC. I studied this issue. EquiHash is no exception.
However, it does offer a FOMO pump perceived resistance against any near-term SHA256 mining driven fork wars. So as BCH, SW, SW2x, and SW-theft (aka BTC-Satoshi) battle it out, then we have LTC and BTG as resistant to SHA256 and BTG as the one resistant to Bitmain perhaps (but doesn’t DCC own a huge GPU farm?). Aren’t we getting weary of this forkathon crap.
Also they premined some tokens for themselves, thus it is not a pure airdrop. It is thus illegal securities issuance when they sell these tokens unless they can argue their ongoing efforts are no longer relevant to anyone’s profit expectation. And if there are no ongoing efforts, then what does that coin offer of any significance?
Essentially if Bitcoin Gold succeeds, then even Bitcoin has become infected with ICO forkathon fever. And thus Bitcoin becomes nothing but a forkathon altcoin itself. Nonsense.
At some point the market is going to weed out all the useless FOMO/copy+pastecoin shit, just like the Dot.com crash did. And then we’ll focus on where the value really is, i.e. the immutability of Bitcoin being what can make it
a reserve currency of everything and even Central Banks will hold it.
As Warren Buffet said, “when the tide goes out, then we can see who wasn’t wearing underwear.”
