The path to 1M, Gov's forced to adopt BTC to prove soverign risk

[jubalix]

At some point nations will have to prove their reserves and credit worth via BTC held, and so attract investment capital in FIAT or whatever.

Why? because the credit risk of a country with BTC will be much much lower and more transparent than any alternative.

Now that some of that BTC will be locked up in say a multisig, that will at least allow a lender to impinge on lenders total credit if they default.

Every other asset class can be destroyed, rigged, seized or sold and Legally if a country changes its laws.

Eventually countries will be forced to buy and hold BTC to remain attractive to investors and lenders as will business above a certain size to be good credit risks.

Banks or international banks or specialty benches such a sort of neo-Delaware Bench may arise and  find themselves in a new role or perhaps a  supra jurisdictional role as impartial arbiter of who get the funds in case of dispute. But then again perhaps not. It may be enough for a lender to demand multisig or more to give goods services etc

This I think will be the driver to 1M and above, when sovereign acquisition occurs in earnest and it will.


Notes:
I don't see that nations will ever trust each other enough to allow any single group of countries control the money supply.

Now I know the US$ is by far the reserve currency of the world, but by by and large this does not stop other major powers eg UK, UK, JP CNY trying to set their own internal monetary policy. Smaller counties may be dollarized due to being a the only viable alt to their devalued indigenous currency.

Putting that to one side I don't see the G20 and others ever trust each other enough and so will default to BTC.

[Lancusters]

You invite countries to borrow in bitcoin? Lol. Suggest you start with yourself and lead by example. I wonder how long you will be in debt? There are a lot of third world countries that borrowed in dollars and can't give them up because their currency is depreciating faster than the dollar. Bitcoin grows in value much faster.

[jubalix]

You invite countries to borrow in bitcoin? Lol. Suggest you start with yourself and lead by example. I wonder how long you will be in debt? There are a lot of third world countries that borrowed in dollars and can't give them up because their currency is depreciating faster than the dollar. Bitcoin grows in value much faster.

no to prove they have valuable reserves. Eg like gold or some other asset class. This would serve to reduce credit risk of lenders.

Unlike gold certs, btc can't be faked.

[Hyperme.sh]

At some point nations will have to prove their reserves and credit worth via BTC held, and so attract investment capital in FIAT or whatever.

Why? because the credit risk of a country with BTC will be much much lower and more transparent than any alternative.

Do you realize how delusional your statement is?

Yeah maybe in 10 - 20 years from now, but not any time soon.

Equating Zimbabwe’s (or even China’s) relatively shallow liquidity currency and Treasury bond market, to the USA dollar and US Treasuries is not a cogent analysis of reality.

China to Open Bond Market to Foreign Investors

Without a viable bond market, no currency can become the reserve currency and compete against the dollar. It does not matter what you price in yuan, it still requires a trustworthy place to park your money. This is basis fundamental international economics 101. Schools teach domestic economics and are generally ignorant of international economics.

Until debt ceases to be money that simply pays interest, the dollar will not vanish as a reserve currency. There is no replacement as of yet. Even when China becomes the largest economy, that will not displace the “reserve” status of the dollar until there is a deep market to park cash. That is separate and distinct from trade being conducted in a variety of currencies. We have to revise the world monetary system. When we reach that point, then we can deal with creating an alternative for a “reserve” currency that is entirely distinct from trade currencies.

Some comments are saying that China follows every word I say. I think that is an exaggeration. Yes, before my ordeal, we entered into an arrangement with China to do the forecasting for about 1,000 government entities. Yes, I was invited to the Central Bank when the Asian Currency Crisis hit. Yes, I recommended going to the US Treasury and demanding to buy bonds directly circumventing the New York bankers. True, our services are not blocked in China.

[davis196]

I guess this is another "Bitcoin should be the new world reserve currency" thread.
I think it`s more possible to return the gold standard instead of adopting btc as a reserve currency.
The USA would never lose it`s monetary advantage and will never let some other national currecny  to dominate the world.
And by the way,bitcoin can be destroyed.

[pitham1]

At some point nations will have to prove their reserves and credit worth via BTC held, and so attract investment capital in FIAT or whatever.

Why? because the credit risk of a country with BTC will be much much lower and more transparent than any alternative.

Do you realize how delusional your statement is?

Yeah maybe in 10 - 20 years from now, but not any time soon.

10 years is not a long time away. If ever governments start holding bitcoins, the price will really go to the moon. Institutional investors are nothing compared to what sovereign wealth funds can do to the price.

[HeRetiK]

[...]

This I think will be the driver to 1M and above, when sovereign acquisition occurs in earnest and it will.

[...]

This number assumes BTC fully replacing gold... and then some. Which I doubt will happen. One may dream though.

[...]

The USA would never lose it`s monetary advantage and will never let some other national currecny  to dominate the world.
And by the way,bitcoin can be destroyed.

But BTC is not some other national currency. That's the beauty of it. And I daresay it would be really hard to destroy in a way that doesn't take the rest of the world with it.

[jubalix]

At some point nations will have to prove their reserves and credit worth via BTC held, and so attract investment capital in FIAT or whatever.

Why? because the credit risk of a country with BTC will be much much lower and more transparent than any alternative.

Do you realize how delusional your statement is?

Yeah maybe in 10 - 20 years from now, but not any time soon.

Equating Zimbabwe’s (or even China’s) relatively shallow liquidity currency and Treasury bond market, to the USA dollar and US Treasuries is not a cogent analysis of reality.

China to Open Bond Market to Foreign Investors

Without a viable bond market, no currency can become the reserve currency and compete against the dollar. It does not matter what you price in yuan, it still requires a trustworthy place to park your money. This is basis fundamental international economics 101. Schools teach domestic economics and are generally ignorant of international economics.

Until debt ceases to be money that simply pays interest, the dollar will not vanish as a reserve currency. There is no replacement as of yet. Even when China becomes the largest economy, that will not displace the “reserve” status of the dollar until there is a deep market to park cash. That is separate and distinct from trade being conducted in a variety of currencies. We have to revise the world monetary system. When we reach that point, then we can deal with creating an alternative for a “reserve” currency that is entirely distinct from trade currencies.

Some comments are saying that China follows every word I say. I think that is an exaggeration. Yes, before my ordeal, we entered into an arrangement with China to do the forecasting for about 1,000 government entities. Yes, I was invited to the Central Bank when the Asian Currency Crisis hit. Yes, I recommended going to the US Treasury and demanding to buy bonds directly circumventing the New York bankers. True, our services are not blocked in China.

Hang on Hang on, did I put a time frame on this?

I would have put a circa 7 ~ 10 year time frame...so not sure why you say x is delusional then say, it can happen in 10 years.

I am looking from the point of view of credit risk. Alot of what a country can do eg capital raise, attract investment, keep issuing debt may come down to how well you can asses their credit risk and how well you can secure collateral, or a least stop them from benefiting politically from nationalizing your work via the many ways, tax law change, new regulations etc. BTC represents a clear option to address both of these issues.

I don't agree with your characterization of equating my argument to reserve currency which is different to  credit risk.

thats a different proposition. A reserve currency may require different conditions and probably a much higher market cap so it has the depth to handle large transactions.

Also I'm not going to say BTC will be the one to do it but some crypto will.

[jubalix]

I guess this is another "Bitcoin should be the new world reserve currency" thread.
I think it`s more possible to return the gold standard instead of adopting btc as a reserve currency.
The USA would never lose it`s monetary advantage and will never let some other national currecny  to dominate the world.
And by the way,bitcoin can be destroyed.

good luck with destroying the 1000's of alts each with better and evolving tech out there......you would merely hasten the evolution to a better more powerful solution than BTC. In fact I think this is the exact reason gov's will not try to destory BTC itself as they see the tidal waves or alts ready to go. In-fact BTC is giving them time to get a position.

So no crypto won't be destroyed at this point.

[tokeweed]

All this talk of adoption but Bitcoin can't even scale yet.  It would be hard to gain any serious type of adoption if something isn't technically capable to accomodate the demand.  I could imagine the fees could go sky high in the current fee market system. 

[BillyBobZorton]

All this talk of adoption but Bitcoin can't even scale yet.  It would be hard to gain any serious type of adoption if something isn't technically capable to accomodate the demand.  I could imagine the fees could go sky high in the current fee market system. 

I guess wouldn't need that much scaling to deal with these type of transactions. In high finances like those, speed is not an issue, certainty is, and bitcoin solves certainty. Maybe at some point fees are high even for this end too.

But in any case, the problem I see with this theory is, why would governments want to participate in bitcoin when big chunks of the supply are controlled by random people they can't control? I don't think governments would like that.

So unless they start buying a lot, they will never have enough BTC for them to be profitable to legitimize Bitcoin at that level.

[jubalix]

All this talk of adoption but Bitcoin can't even scale yet.  It would be hard to gain any serious type of adoption if something isn't technically capable to accomodate the demand.  I could imagine the fees could go sky high in the current fee market system. 

I guess wouldn't need that much scaling to deal with these type of transactions. In high finances like those, speed is not an issue, certainty is, and bitcoin solves certainty. Maybe at some point fees are high even for this end too.

But in any case, the problem I see with this theory is, why would governments want to participate in bitcoin when big chunks of the supply are controlled by random people they can't control? I don't think governments would like that.

So unless they start buying a lot, they will never have enough BTC for them to be profitable to legitimize Bitcoin at that level.

i don't think that random people with BTC is an issue to the premise of proof of credit worthiness. Excepting as an actor trying to crash the market or making large fluctuations,but with btc you only get to do this once each per large actor of which there are not many and its over, so really its not going to happen that many times, and the volume are fairly ok to soak up cheap coins

[CryptoBry]

I like this idea but I doubt if nations would be adopting Bitcoin this way. There are so many factors that we have to consider first before replacing the reserve system and I don't think that countries will surrender their sovereignty to Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin as the best alternative currency can be possible. Now, this can take years before Bitcoin can reach the real mainstream and there are still so many humps and bumps that we have to experience first. I am a firm believer in the future of Bitcoin though.