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Author Topic: Prof Richard Taler wins Nobel Prize for idea that humans do not act rationally  (Read 210 times)
buwaytress (OP)
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October 16, 2017, 11:54:48 AM
 #1

Well, we all knew this applies even (or especially?) to Bitcoin in terms of its trading valuation. But the Nobel Prize for economics was awarded to University of Chicago's Prof. Richard Taler for this very idea in behavioural economics.

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20171013-the-understated-importance-of-embracing-our-irrational-side

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He pinpointed the difference between the predictions in financial literature, which assume that people act perfectly rationally to maximise their expected profits (the idea of the homo economicus), and what actually happens on the markets.

He proved that financial markets behave irrationally, mainly due to traders having limited rationality, and explains this for a key reason behind the recent economic disasters (and booms). Other contributions are on mental accounting: people don't make lifetime decisions, instead they focus on individual decisions.

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I hope this Nobel prize award will attract the public’s attention and encourage many to acknowledge the irrationality of their decision making. As well as seeing the value in regulating financial markets so they are not susceptible to irrational behaviour, by acknowledging this tendency, we can make better plans for our futures – ones that our “doer” sides are happy to follow.

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October 16, 2017, 11:59:55 AM
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did we really need an article or "proof" that humans are irrational? I thought that was already obvious and fairly known by now by everyone. We're creatures of greed and emotions, we don't always act on logic, especially when our future (money) depends on it. Just look at the dot com bubble, or 2008. These are the best cases for irrationality amongs man's history. And who said that we're not in a bubble right now as well? I hope we're not as I believe in BTC, but only time will show if it can prevail in this modern economic maddening financial system
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October 16, 2017, 12:02:00 PM
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did we really need an article or "proof" that humans are irrational? I thought that was already obvious and fairly known by now by everyone. We're creatures of greed and emotions, we don't always act on logic, especially when our future (money) depends on it. Just look at the dot com bubble, or 2008. These are the best cases for irrationality amongs man's history. And who said that we're not in a bubble right now as well? I hope we're not as I believe in BTC, but only time will show if it can prevail in this modern economic maddening financial system

We certainly didn't need an article or proof, however the problem with almost every single model in Economics is that it assumes rationality. It severely limits almost all models and so being able to prove we do not act rationally is a first step to being able to adjust all of these models so that they can improve.

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October 16, 2017, 12:25:21 PM
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did we really need an article or "proof" that humans are irrational? I thought that was already obvious and fairly known by now by everyone. We're creatures of greed and emotions, we don't always act on logic, especially when our future (money) depends on it. Just look at the dot com bubble, or 2008. These are the best cases for irrationality amongs man's history. And who said that we're not in a bubble right now as well? I hope we're not as I believe in BTC, but only time will show if it can prevail in this modern economic maddening financial system

Just sharing, that's all. I'm sure he had a lot more insight than what was distilled into that article.

We certainly didn't need an article or proof, however the problem with almost every single model in Economics is that it assumes rationality. It severely limits almost all models and so being able to prove we do not act rationally is a first step to being able to adjust all of these models so that they can improve.

Exactly! If we continue to design and plan using models that are based on rationality, then we'll always get caught out when things unravel the way they do. The only way to get expected results is with entirely automated systems or AI mechanisms that aren't beholden to human intervention but we know that cannot yet be possible. To gain mainstream recognition, at least in academic circles, that we simply cannot trust humans to be rational is the beginning. Adjust the models to account for irrationality.

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