BitCoin mining difficulty forecast spreadsheet I made on Google Docs.

[BitSugar]

Just did a google search for "site:bitcointalk.org https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet" & this was by far the most valuable spreadsheet that i have come by. Thank you!

[schnuber]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0

Awsome. Good work, dude

[minetrend]

Most useful but also pretty depressing. But thank you all the same

[xyzpdq]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0

Thank you for taking the time to create this spreadsheet.  It is a little depressing to look at, but gives me an idea of how things might play out.

If you have time, is there any chance you can add a field that will allow users to show what it will look like if mining starts n days from now.  I have not received my equipment yet, and I am trying to see what things might look like when I receive my miner in the coming weeks.  Thanks.

[Its About Sharing]

First, thanks for sharing the great sheet and taking the time to make it up. A huge help and the best I've seen anywhere.

So, what do you guys think about the October 13' prediction, really way over 100 million? That means I most probably shouldn't buy a Bitfury 25Gh for 1240 Euro. Be much much better to just buy BTC's with the money, especially if they come down in price.

[HowlingMad]

Question:  Is the Hash Rate in 1,000's?  If I have a 14Gh ASIC miner do I enter 14,000?  Thanks.

[ujka]

So, what do you guys think about the October 13' prediction, really way over 100 million? That means I most probably shouldn't buy a Bitfury 25Gh for 1240 Euro. Be much much better to just buy BTC's with the money, especially if they come down in price.

100 million in October is very likely.
I also put together a spreadsheet, very optimistic one. That 25Gh miner will mine maybe 20btc first year, then another 5btc. With 1240€ you can buy 17btc @70€. 20 if the price is @60€.

[Its About Sharing]

So, what do you guys think about the October 13' prediction, really way over 100 million? That means I most probably shouldn't buy a Bitfury 25Gh for 1240 Euro. Be much much better to just buy BTC's with the money, especially if they come down in price.

100 million in October is very likely.
I also put together a spreadsheet, very optimistic one. That 25Gh miner will mine maybe 20btc first year, then another 5btc. With 1240€ you can buy 17btc @70€. 20 if the price is @60€.

Thanks a lot for that chart. I'm sure others appreciate it.

If it is that close I just can't imagine taking a chance. Though it would feel great to have coins I mine in a paper wallet till I'm old.   
Being able to have coins now and trade in and out at opportune times is just a better gamble.

Again, I don't understand why the cost is the same for October considering their discount with the 400Gh machine. Would be nice to discount it.
Would also be nice to not see August units for sale on Ebay that weren't even paid for yet. 

[abdullahadam]

I just packed my 18x6870 which i ordered 29 days ago and they are going back to where they came from

Hey did you check the reward for LTC? Its still pretty profitable

[Its About Sharing]

Wait up OP, the BTC difficulty in your spreadsheet in November will be 20 BILLION???
I think that isn't possible...

[abdullahadam]

Wait up OP, the BTC difficulty in your spreadsheet in November will be 20 BILLION???
I think that isn't possible...

According to CURRENT growth rates, it will be 5 billion by next year
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/a96771e2ea

I dont think that is possible either.  Someone tell me what is the realistic upper limit on the difficulty (at current BTC price)??

[Its About Sharing]

Wait up OP, the BTC difficulty in your spreadsheet in November will be 20 BILLION???
I think that isn't possible...

According to CURRENT growth rates, it will be 5 billion by next year
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/a96771e2ea

I dont think that is possible either.  Someone tell me what is the realistic upper limit on the difficulty (at current BTC price)??

From everything I've read, it seems like a December figure of 100-120 or so million is more realistic. We just had a huge jump, but that is because a lot of miners just produced (by KNC?) were turned on. That won't continue. Avalon is behind, BFL is behind. We'll see what Bitfury and KNC do, I have a feeling they will be closer to delivering, but we'll see. But much of that is slated for Oct/Nov.

What people need to understand is that the advances going forward are not akin to CPU advances. The ASICs will get smaller and more efficient, but from everything I've heard, they won't really get much faster. It is just a hashing algorithm of sorts and there is only so much you can do with that. But chips will be made en mass - It will happen and the delays will probably be a thing of the past once we get past the newness (and greed - companies holding or selling to highest bidder, maybe like Avalon did ). These first generation miners are not going to be in operation deep into next year imo. Still be a novelty device to have your erupter stick or Jalapeno. Sort of like an Atari 2600 now. Who knows, maybe that alone will raise the resale value ;-)

[cabinetmaker]

and, sadly, I don't want to join google to have a look at the spreadsheet.
talk about an information thief (google)

maybe there is another way?

[yusuf198]

I actually have a pretty good forecast with historical data in mind.
 
4482961509- 03/14       
5150199218 04/14      
5817436928 05/14      
6484674638 06/14      
7151912348 07/14      
7819150057 08/14      
8486387767 09/14      
9153625477 10/14      
9820863187 11/14      
10488100896 12/14      
11155338606 01/15      
11822576316 02/15
The miner is capable of 600 GH/S   

Here is a profit decrease model
 
1577.34      
1165.8      
1030.83      
923.63      
836.44      
764.13      
703.19      
651.13      
606.15      
566.89      
532.33      
501.67   

Profit lost in respective to the last known profit       
-411.54      
-135.8      
-107      
-87      
-72.31      
-60.94      
-52.06      
-44.98      
-39.26      
-34.56      
-30.66   

To be honest, Bitcoin is pretty profitable if you know what you are doing. There are many cynics out there that believe BTC is over excluding MTGOX victims.
If the numbers are true from the data then we can definitely conclude that as bitcoin grows more difficult to mine the hardware manufacturers will enjoy bountiful amounts of income. Many metropolitan areas have office space for lease between 150 to 300 square feet and the monthly rent ranges from $150 to $330 dollars excluding New York Dallas and etc. If one were to rent space many landlords include electricity costs within the rent so in my case I did not factor in electricity costs. I have noticed that they sometimes would come into the building and turn the lights off to save electricity but I told them in no circumstances can they touch the locked racks. If one were to reach above the 600 gh/s rate it would be wise to rent out space if expansion is wanted.

Thanks

P.S. The equipment I considered free because the expense was paid by a friend who I did a favor for in 2006.

[pjviitas]

After reading about mining for a bit and pricing out some components on NewEgg I used a few of the calculators available on the web (such as http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/). But all the ones I found were locked in at a certain difficulty level. This is not very useful for future projections when the rate of difficulty is increasing at an exponential rate. So, being a bit of an Excel junkie I created this spread sheet to see if GPU mining still has a chance to be profitable.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0

The outlook is not good for GPU miners. If my calculations are even semi accurate, there is no money to be made with GPUs, unless you own the hardware already and get free electricity. It seems GPU mining won't even pay for the hardware if you buy it now.

Please take a look at this sheet and share your thoughts on how fast you think mining difficulty will continue to rise in the future.

sez I need access

[whyinvestinbitcoin]

Just wanted to say thanks for the excel calculations. Works perfectly and demonstrates that I have most likely lost $15k buying 2 x Neptunes just delivered and break even with 4 x Cointerra's (converted to contract) delivered early June.

Still it's great to be a part of the game!

[LuckyXIII]

Glad to see so many have found this useful. I haven't even looked at it in months, I didn't' realize that it was so popular here.

Remember that this is an open sheet that any can fiddle with, so check all your Mining Factors in the grey box and make sure they fit your particular scenario. This means how many Mega Hashes your equipment is running, how many Watts you're using, the cost of electricity (if any) for you, how much you think the BTC will be worth when (and if) you sell them, ect...

Also if you want the most accurate difficulty forecast, enter the most recent ACTUAL difficulty and the date it started.

[bitcoinnovice]

How can I change the inputs for the H/s my computer can process and the associated Watts it consumes? There's a cell that says "fill in these fields," but I don't see anywhere to change these inputs. I see a Sheet 1 and Sheet 3, perhaps the inputs used to be on a Sheet 2?

Also, is there any way to change the estimated number of hours at max (12 hrs instead of 24 hrs)?

Thank you!

[Gyrsur]

forecast is a bit too aggressive in these times.