Insane Prediction for difficulty increases

[klintay]

I hypothesize that difficulty increase will DOUBLE every 40 days from now until the market is flooded with ASICs

If we use this as a calculation for the difficulty rate in September we get:


15,000,000 x 1.20 ^ 4 =  31,104,000 (difficulty on 16/07/2013)

31,104,000 x 1.40 ^ 4 = 119,489,126 (difficulty on 26/08/2013)

119,489,126 x 1.80 ^ 4 = 1,254, 349,053 (difficulty on 1/09/2013)

These calculations presume that:
120 days till September
12 lots of 10
every 10 days difficulty increases
every 40 days that increase doubles

I hope i am wrong but at these levels even a 350Ghz miner in September wont really be a profitable ROI, even if the price of BTC was 350 USD

[derr777]

Not insane at all.. my models have been at 67-75% difficulty increase every 1 month now for a while.

Recently, i've started using 75% in my calculations. 

[Slipage]

Asics the current models will be non profitable by the end of the year.

People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.

What's  even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.

They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year

[mvidetto]

I guess what people fail to realize is that mining is not a get rich quick ROI.  Obviously the price of BTC is going down versus fiat ever since the crash and will continue to do so for atleast another month or two until it bottoms out around $30.  All the people who bought miners will probably look for refunds (BFL) and while the difficulty will continue to increase quickly, it will probably still only be 100m in September, maybe less.

[klintay]

I guess what people fail to realize is that mining is not a get rich quick ROI.  Obviously the price of BTC is going down versus fiat ever since the crash and will continue to do so for atleast another month or two until it bottoms out around $30.  All the people who bought miners will probably look for refunds (BFL) and while the difficulty will continue to increase quickly, it will probably still only be 100m in September, maybe less.

really? you think the price of BTC will continue going down? I have to say when i look at the chart it does look like it is in a downtrend, since it went parabolic and hit 200s but i don't know how effective chart analysis is for BTC/USD price. Are there any companies making litecoin FPGAs? that would be a good thing to get into now. 

[ewitte]

Asics the current models will be non profitable by the end of the year.

People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.

What's  even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.

They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year

But by then we will only be able to get peoples hand me downs for reasonable cost.  Current ASIC will likely take a long time to not be profitable but the big guys will keep upgrading and selling off.  1BTC/mo off 20TH is still profitable if the price is right.

[mvidetto]

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q is why we are going down in price.  There are not enough people buying into bitcoin which is coupled with a consistent selling brings the price down.  This will continue until supply and demand are equal which is roughly 1/10 of the peak price in April.

[Slipage]

Asics the current models will be non profitable by the end of the year.

People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.

What's  even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.

They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year

But by then we will only be able to get peoples hand me downs for reasonable cost.  Current ASIC will likely take a long time to not be profitable but the big guys will keep upgrading and selling off.  1BTC/mo off 20TH is still profitable if the price is right.

Your living in fantasy world. All you have to do is take a look at the diff graphs and see the writing on the wall and that's nothing of what is yet to come . People will not want hand me downs if it won't make money.

Your what if scenarios of btc going up to be profitable is like me walking into the casino saying I'm going to win big.

The only winners are people in the know  who have insider access to these devices before mainstream get them, and the people taking money for pre orders. The winners are also the ones offloading them before most people realise it won't make money.

The average person won't make money from mining by the end of the year in btc . Note in my posts I said by end of year.
That's just under 6 months , do the Maths, it's not rocket science .

[freedomno1]

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q is why we are going down in price.  There are not enough people buying into bitcoin which is coupled with a consistent selling brings the price down.  This will continue until supply and demand are equal which is roughly 1/10 of the peak price in April.

Hmm wonder if that's a delayed trend line it looks similar to the bitcoin crash
Parabolic bubble it's interesting

That means the next time the trendline goes up time for a Buy
Speculation comment

Regarding the difficulty that may be very possible

[Xian01]

This entire thread is terribly depressing 

[klintay]

Its all just speculation at the moment. The difficulty might only be 200,000,000 by September in which case ASIC will still be profitable for quite some time.

[Emmie]

Hijacking for a quick noob question; if no additional miners were added to the network, i.e we stayed at the current total hash rate. Would the difficulty still increase?

[freedomno1]

Hijacking for a quick noob question; if no additional miners were added to the network, i.e we stayed at the current total hash rate. Would the difficulty still increase?

Unless less miners mine more processing power would mean an increase in difficulty as bitcoin releases blocks at around 10 minute intervals
If the price decreased miners might leave the network as it is less profitable
However that is offset by the increase in processing power coming out soon

[ImI]

Hijacking for a quick noob question; if no additional miners were added to the network, i.e we stayed at the current total hash rate. Would the difficulty still increase?

no

[jhansen858]

Looks about right except for the last date said 2013 and I think it should say 2014

(difficulty on 1/09/2013)

[ewitte]

Your living in fantasy world. All you have to do is take a look at the diff graphs and see the writing on the wall and that's nothing of what is yet to come . People will not want hand me downs if it won't make money.

Your what if scenarios of btc going up to be profitable is like me walking into the casino saying I'm going to win big.

The only winners are people in the know  who have insider access to these devices before mainstream get them, and the people taking money for pre orders. The winners are also the ones offloading them before most people realise it won't make money.

The average person won't make money from mining by the end of the year in btc . Note in my posts I said by end of year.
That's just under 6 months , do the Maths, it's not rocket science .

Not really history is repeating everyone said it would die when CPUs were on the way out.  There are projects offering decently priced ASICS based on Avalon (which will flood the market late summer) so as long as these or similar chips are produced people that have a will will find a way.  I've done the math even if difficulty is 10x what it is I have 10x the HASH power on its way.  It will at that point be exponentially harder to increase difficulty by that factor.

[pikeadz]

Asics the current models will be non profitable by the end of the year.

People with pre orders will get burnt bad with a product coming later in the year that won't make the greedy profit they thought when they first placed the order.

What's  even worst no resale value when the diff is too high.

They will make a good door stop for a Xmas present this year

But by then we will only be able to get peoples hand me downs for reasonable cost.  Current ASIC will likely take a long time to not be profitable but the big guys will keep upgrading and selling off.  1BTC/mo off 20TH is still profitable if the price is right.

Your living in fantasy world. All you have to do is take a look at the diff graphs and see the writing on the wall and that's nothing of what is yet to come . People will not want hand me downs if it won't make money.

Your what if scenarios of btc going up to be profitable is like me walking into the casino saying I'm going to win big.

The only winners are people in the know  who have insider access to these devices before mainstream get them, and the people taking money for pre orders. The winners are also the ones offloading them before most people realise it won't make money.

The average person won't make money from mining by the end of the year in btc . Note in my posts I said by end of year.
That's just under 6 months , do the Maths, it's not rocket science .

I remember when people said this about GPUs when difficulty was 2M and the price was $15 or so.   

If exchange rate goes up, everything remains profitable longer.  If not, it won't.  Anything can and will happen between now and the end of the year.

For example, if Amazon or Google adopts Bitcoin as a payment method or any number of developments occur that warrant an increase in price that is not merely speculative, your comments will look very silly in short order.  But don't make it seem like it's hopeless.  That's pure FUD.  It is a gamble, but not hopeless.

[ewitte]

Yep what happens happens and that could possibly mean BTC isn't even necessary/relevant.

[bobsmoke]

I hypothesize that difficulty increase will DOUBLE every 40 days from now until the market is flooded with ASICs

If we use this as a calculation for the difficulty rate in September we get:


15,000,000 x 1.20 ^ 4 =  31,104,000 (difficulty on 16/06/2013)

31,104,000 x 1.40 ^ 4 = 119,489,126 (difficulty on 26/07/2013)

119,489,126 x 1.80 ^ 4 = 1,254, 349,053 (difficulty on 1/09/2013)

These calculations presume that:
120 days till September
12 lots of 10
every 10 days difficulty increases
every 40 days that increase doubles

I hope i am wrong but at these levels even a 350Ghz miner in September wont really be a profitable ROI, even if the price of BTC was 350 USD

Hi, Can you correlate this data with the total hashrate needed to reach this insane amount of difficulty in a so short time frame?

[tempestb]

Value of the coin is what matters.  You need more money in the market.  That translates to more people owning bitcoin and not cashing it out.  I think many miners, at first, will cash out as they will need to pay off their investment.  After that point, it's a good bet a lot of them will hang onto coins in order to use them for next generation asic purchases.  (The smart play)  But I expect the market to crash in the short term.  Long term it will stabalize and start growing again as people hang onto coins.

More investment in hardware style wallets is probably a good idea.  Even more the retailers/vendors need some kind of terminal to accept bitcoin and cash out like credit card machines are today.  (Entire services exist doing this making people millions of dollars.  Why not do it for bitcoin?)   If people walk around with a few bitcoins in a digital wallet, that is coins not cashed out in the market, helping boost the market value.

And then, more people have to believe in the currency and invest in it because they know it will grow in value.   Not to mention volatility in fiat markets that cause people to flee to currencies like Bitcoin so they can move money easily.