Poll: Short-Term Trading Range

[DrYe5]

Where are we going to end up?

[Chucksta]

That needs a > $20 option. I'm now well into the black with my $$$, so now holding on to my BTC, and waiting to see what happens with the price as the weeks pass.

[DrYe5]

That needs a > $20 option. I'm now well into the black with my $$$, so now holding on to my BTC, and waiting to see what happens with the price as the weeks pass.

>$20 is not technically plausible. This is the next 24 hours. Maybe in a week.

[Malnilion]

I think you underestimate how much it could fluctuate. Remember, opening price is going to be 17.51 on Mt.Gox.

[DrYe5]

I think you underestimate how much it could fluctuate. Remember, opening price is going to be 17.51 on Mt.Gox.

Any buyers of significant interest have had their say at Trade Hill for the last 24 hours. The ticker says 17.5 at Mt. Gox but this doesn't reflect reality.

[Malnilion]

Not everyone has the means to freely move money from Mt.Gox to Tradehill easily. There will be some buyers on Mt.Gox. You could look at it from the other perspective that the price won't drop past 15BTC because sellers have had their run on Tradehill as well.

[DrYe5]

Not everyone has the means to freely move money from Mt.Gox to Tradehill easily. There will be some buyers on Mt.Gox. You could look at it from the other perspective that the price won't drop past 15BTC because sellers have had their run on Tradehill as well.

With the majority of the markets coins locked in the Gox, there was a limit to the selling that could occur yesterday. How this limit relates to the smaller size of the TH market is my main variable in predicting today's trading.

[DrYe5]

What's everyone thinking now?

[SlipperySlope]

Looks like a decline to test 10, then test 8.  Recall that in April one could buy a bitcoin for a US dollar.  What has changed in the meantime beyond a dramatic bump in public interest that is now subsiding?

[StewartJ]

Could it possibly go below $10 by Monday morn?  Would this be too much of a buying opportunity to pass up?

SJ

[Oldminer]

Could it possibly go below $10 by Monday morn?  Would this be too much of a buying opportunity to pass up?

SJ

Looks like its bottomed for this weekend @ low $15

[DrYe5]

Could it possibly go below $10 by Monday morn?  Would this be too much of a buying opportunity to pass up?

SJ

Looks like its bottomed for this weekend @ low $15

Looks like a three day weekend.

[stic.man]

shocking that 5000 BTC order at 15 disappeared

[hashme]

Was it one sole order?

[stic.man]

they're fake bids to prop the market, so probably

[infested999]

they're fake bids to prop the market, so probably

People can actually make bids without showing proof that they have the money?

[DrYe5]

they're fake bids to prop the market, so probably

People can actually make bids without showing proof that they have the money?

No, but trading can be automated by a computer. Someone can place large bids (they must have the money, so you know they are powerful in this market) and cancel automatically when the buy price gets too close (so the buy order is never going to be filled).

The purpose of what's happening is that someone powerful is holding a lot of coins. If they sold all at once, they would crash the market. They are using their wealth to prop the market, waiting for a certain number of smaller buyers to build up around their props and then dropping a ton of coins on these buyers. These buyers are getting screwed. Because the large player knows which bids are "fake" he knows much more about the market than the rest of us. Using this technique he is getting a much higher sell price for his large volume of coins than he would otherwise.

Ask yourself what will happen when he has sold through his stock and there is no incentive to prop the market.

[DrYe5]

Exciting day. Time for a reset.


Past data (7/2-7/5):

$0-1    - 2 (4.3%)
$1-4    - 2 (4.3%)
$4-10    - 3 (6.5%)
$10-12    - 4 (8.7%)
$12-14    - 3 (6.5%)
$14-16    - 7 (15.2%)
$16-20    - 7 (15.2%)
>$20    - 18 (39.1%)

[MKW2012]

$12-$14

So far we've reversed the short-term downtrend but the chart is still bearish to me. Hopefully we see some clarity today.