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HonestSurfer
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October 17, 2017, 10:06:03 AM
 #1

Hi! Has anyone done any research on how big the crypto-market for Bitcoin and Ethereum is, in terms of users? How would one go about assessing the market?

These are my ideas for data inputs:

1. Amount of users on the forums (e.g. Bitcointalk forum has ca. 809.000 members: lets say all have bought bitcoin in the past; my estimation is there are at least 4x the amount of people who bought btc but are not on the forum)

2. Number of wallets (e.g. Etherscan says there are ca. 7.030.000 ether addresses (excluding contracts); my estimation is an average ether user has around 2,5 addresses (including corporate accounts like exchanges etc.) (but then probably also wallets that are "centralized" need to be counted; e.g. Coinbase says they have 37.500.000 wallets, of which IMO are 65% bitocin, 30% ether and 5% litecoin...) and so on.

You think there is a more exact / easier / faster way to get an estimation of the market in terms of number of users?
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October 17, 2017, 11:19:11 AM
 #2

There are lots of bitcointalk members with multiple accounts and lots of abandoned bitcointalk accounts.
We can`t estimate the market size based on the number of wallets addresses.
The Coinbase info should be trusted,because most of the users have to be ID verified.
I believe that the cryptocurrency users worldwide are between 50 and 100 million.
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October 17, 2017, 11:26:34 AM
 #3

I think that is not really to know even approximately the number of bitcoin users. I'm afraid to store all bitcoins in one wallet so always distribute the coins in different places. I have over 10 e-wallets. I am sure that so do all. Even if the account can be opened only after the presentation of the documents is always possible to register a wallet to another person who does not use bitcoin.
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October 17, 2017, 12:40:30 PM
 #4

In my own point of view I think we can't say that it cpuld be accurate by just scaling or just depending on number of users here in the forum because there are really many members that have alt accounts to know for. But on the number of wallets  ypu are referring to I guess there is a chance that it could be determined because just like you say it can be estimated just like in Etherscan. But I don't think that it has a way that determine exact estimation of users worldwide.
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October 17, 2017, 12:49:56 PM
 #5

i also got some number of wallet and open it from separate platform for security.
so i think agree, that we cant calculate the market size just from address volume or similar, we need more deep point to research about it.
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October 17, 2017, 01:01:51 PM
 #6

Hi! Has anyone done any research on how big the crypto-market for Bitcoin and Ethereum is, in terms of users? How would one go about assessing the market?

These are my ideas for data inputs:

1. Amount of users on the forums (e.g. Bitcointalk forum has ca. 809.000 members: lets say all have bought bitcoin in the past; my estimation is there are at least 4x the amount of people who bought btc but are not on the forum)

2. Number of wallets (e.g. Etherscan says there are ca. 7.030.000 ether addresses (excluding contracts); my estimation is an average ether user has around 2,5 addresses (including corporate accounts like exchanges etc.) (but then probably also wallets that are "centralized" need to be counted; e.g. Coinbase says they have 37.500.000 wallets, of which IMO are 65% bitocin, 30% ether and 5% litecoin...) and so on.

You think there is a more exact / easier / faster way to get an estimation of the market in terms of number of users?
It is difficult to determine and no exact number. However you can refer to the market capitalization, it decides very large.
The number of people interacting on cryptocy forums like Bitcointalk, reddit, steem, .... can also be an indicator of the cryptocy market!

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October 17, 2017, 01:08:26 PM
 #7

Hi! Has anyone done any research on how big the crypto-market for Bitcoin and Ethereum is, in terms of users? How would one go about assessing the market?

These are my ideas for data inputs:

1. Amount of users on the forums (e.g. Bitcointalk forum has ca. 809.000 members: lets say all have bought bitcoin in the past; my estimation is there are at least 4x the amount of people who bought btc but are not on the forum)

2. Number of wallets (e.g. Etherscan says there are ca. 7.030.000 ether addresses (excluding contracts); my estimation is an average ether user has around 2,5 addresses (including corporate accounts like exchanges etc.) (but then probably also wallets that are "centralized" need to be counted; e.g. Coinbase says they have 37.500.000 wallets, of which IMO are 65% bitocin, 30% ether and 5% litecoin...) and so on.

You think there is a more exact / easier / faster way to get an estimation of the market in terms of number of users?
It is difficult to determine and no exact number. However you can refer to the market capitalization, it decides very large.
The number of people interacting on cryptocy forums like Bitcointalk, reddit, steem, .... can also be an indicator of the cryptocy market!
Market capitalization can give the answer to how many bitcoin users there are. One whale can have more bitcoins than have thousands of regular users. It seems to me that the answer to such questions is not and cannot be. Can be approximately is to know about the number of users through the exchange which require the provision of passports for registration.
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October 17, 2017, 01:46:43 PM
 #8

Hey Cheesy

In fact the market value can never be determined by the bitcointalk.org members that have formed the account here, first of all people sometimes forget that they even have an account here, they made it out om a whim and then ran away because they weren't sure about what they had to do , I know a lot of guys like that also I have some friends with multiple accounts and it doesn't give us a right information about how many members are in fact present there.
People also posses multiple wallets and ..thus you can't track down how many people do actually have the hands in this business, also people also can have multiple bank accounts, so whatever happens we can't ever get an exact amount of people who are in this market, maybe a survey will do Tongue



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October 17, 2017, 02:53:07 PM
 #9

This is an interesting topic and I'm sure that in the near future professional economists will be doing research about the structure of Bitcoin economy. But until then we can only get some very rough estimates. Most results put Bitcoin user base at around 2-3 million active users, which is actually not far off from your predictions in original post! Also, as of today Coinbase is reporting 11,200,000 users.

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October 17, 2017, 03:15:37 PM
 #10

At this point it is pretty hard to give an accurate estimation of number of bitcoin users/owners. I guess the best bet is to do it through statistics. With data from Coinbase one could probably make a statistical model that could be applied to the whole bitcoin market. They have a lot of information they don't share, like which country people are from and such. One could then identify different factors (like % of population with internet access, amount of spendable income, GDP of the country, and whatever else you might have data on that could be relevant). Without that data it's kinda hard, tho. And collecting the data is not very easy to do by oneself.

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October 17, 2017, 03:27:24 PM
 #11

There are lots of bitcointalk members with multiple accounts and lots of abandoned bitcointalk accounts.
We can`t estimate the market size based on the number of wallets addresses.
The Coinbase info should be trusted,because most of the users have to be ID verified.
I believe that the cryptocurrency users worldwide are between 50 and 100 million.

I dont think there is any source that can be fully trusted without giving room for significant error. Relying on coinbase because verification is actually not going to cut it because there lots of users who will stay away from such sites that ask for verification and at the same time we have several sites that offer exchange services even without any form of verification.

Pegging the crypto-currency users at that range to me would be a conservative approach because all over the world has the news of bitcoin touched and in US alone there are over 300 million citizens couple with India, China, down to the entire Europe before going to Africa I can say conveniently that the figure of users are very much above that amount.




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October 17, 2017, 04:00:06 PM
 #12

Thanks for the answers so far. So if taking number of wallets and number of forum members is not a good idea in your opinion, what other data-set could yield more accurate results (besides taking polls)?
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