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Author Topic: PMB, is that really a good decision??  (Read 687 times)
SOSLOVE868
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June 07, 2013, 11:49:45 PM
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Some guys in this forum is think I made a wrong decision...I just want to prove here , that I did not lie I have sold all my PAJKA bonds at made a net loss of 5.4 BTC..plus back the dividend I have received is 6.7 BTC.
6.7 BTC not a big deal anyway...I will be set off this by my AM shares in two weeks time... below is my assumption and future for PAJKA BOND...did I made anything wrong ?? I do like anyone to correct me....
Expected dividends to be paid by the issuer(after 6 months): use conservatively 15% increase of difficulty and increase each 12 days. (last time difficulty went up 26%) :  During the 6 months difficulty will adjusted by 180 days/12 =15 times
1:(12 days each): Current dividend is 0.46541752 per day for total 4814 shares. 15%increase of difficulty equals roughly 15% decrease of dividend.
2:                                                0.46541752*0.85=0.395605
3:                                                0.395605*0.85=0.33626425
4:                                                0.33626425*0.85=0.2858246125  
5:                                                0.2858246125*0.85=0.242950
6:                                                0.242950*0.85=0.2065
7:                                                0.2065*0.85=0.1755
8:                                                0.1755*0.85=0.1492
9:                                                0.1492*0.85=0.1268
10:                                              0.1268*0.85=0.1078
11:                                              0.1268*0.85=0.09163
12:                                              0.09163*0.85=0.07788
13:                                              0.07788*0.85=0.0662
14:                                              0.0662*0.85= 0.056
15:                                              0.056*0.85=0.04783    
Accumulated total dividends paid by the issuer: =2.831358*12=33.97 .gives it 35....OK? assume that issuer sold all contracts at 0.1 total 4841 equal to 481 BTC.
 the first half year you will have 7.06%(and continued decrease ) ROI on this asset....No capital gain or loss been calculate so far.....

Assuming half years later , if you are the issuer of this bond, what decision will you made ? continuing this bond and pays on needless dividend to those bond contract holder or pays 110% of market price to buying it back? .. assume the contract is still worth 0.1 half year later .what will you do ? If I am the bond holder I will absolutely continued my contracts because in the future I will pay less dividend . as the time goes, difficulty will continue growth....almost zero cost for the issuer to continued the contract . Am I correct?  
We assuming all investors are rational, they will only investing in the project which will maximize its profit... and this will caused another problem I want to sold out my bond contract , but no one will buying it ,because they have better opportunity.(TAT.V for example) (Logically right ?)
As a bondholder like you what is you decision ? you will selling your contract today to prevent future lose , or hold it wait for fools to buying it?

My calculation could not be that accurate, I really can not understand why someone still think PMB will be a good investment.
We all know that mining difficulty is link up with the BTC's price.... this why I never assume that difficulty will decline...if difficulty decline significantly, then I do not really care the issuer buying back more bonds at 110% at any price or not, I have been f*** anyway?Huh







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June 08, 2013, 12:23:30 AM
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No, all current PMBs on the market are not good decisions.

SOSLOVE868
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June 08, 2013, 12:38:39 AM
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No, all current PMBs on the market are not good decisions.
This what I had though.. The issuer had premium advantage over those poor holders..
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