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Author Topic: Successfull Callapse  (Read 2886 times)
MeSarah
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June 26, 2011, 06:33:32 PM
 #1

Im just doing some thinking aloud here.

I am begining to see signs that are concerning to me. It is appearing to me that btc is going to callapse under its own success. Consider this, in the last 10 days btcguild has added about 1 Th. For me mining was generating about 1.2 btc per day, 10 days ago. Today its only generating .8 btc per day. That is 30% decrease in just 10 days. Now add on a 50%+ increase in difficulty which will affect the next 10 days. My observations lead me to believe that the increase of mining capacity has a greater or more immediate effect on mining profits then the difficulty. I see nothing that points to a reversing of this trend.

Over the last 2 or 3 difficulty increases prices have dropped. Now look at the exchanges, there is anemic trade volume. Look at how few services and products there are to purchase. If you want something and you cant pay for it with the btc you have then the bitcoins are basicly worthless. Sure you can hold your btc in the hope that it will go up in price but thats not realized value and the level of speculation increases. Hashing power has increased faster then new services and products can be brought to market. A correction is due. Its just a matter of when.

If you are loosing 30% on your investment every 10 days you can see that it wont be long before mining wont pay for the electricity. So the obvious will occure. Miners will stop mining. This will leave btc with a smaller consumer base. This would also infer that those that continue to mine will be spending more to do so. Soon a $10K rig will be punny. Those miners that spend $10s of thousands on a rig will be placed between a rock and a hard spot. They will need to sell their btc in order to cover their costs but they wont sell if the price is too low. If they dont sell then their cost will increase. Only speculators will be buying and that has its ceilings too. From this I see a downward pressure on price. Those miners that flee btc will add more downward pressure.                                   

I think that the btc community in their analytic equations dose not take into account the physiological affects.

I cant see the furture, I may be wrong. But you cant see the furture either and your statements to the contrary are equally subject to being wrong. Dont misconstrued my comments as hating on btc. I think the idea of a cryptocurrency is wonderful and ground breaking. But the flaws in its current form are becoming more apparent. One such flaw is the exponential growth in network hashing power and an insufficient market of goods and services. Few merchants are willing to accept btc because of the wild market swings. Merchants paid real money for their goods and to service providers to accommodate buyers. They want to know that they can make their payments when due.

Im not sure I conveyed my thoughts well. I surelly didint put all of them into words. I can say this for sure, Im am viewing btc differently then I did in May or February. Im sure there will be those that will pick apart my words. Im sure there will be those that will hate me for voicing my oppion. And yes there will be a few that will agree with me.

With that said, I call apon the big THINKERS to propose, discuss and form a consensus on how to improve btc.

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June 26, 2011, 06:36:21 PM
 #2

I don't see why your focal point is on the productivity of miners.

It doesn't matter how many miners are mining, as long as there are still miners. BTC are being generated at the same rate no matter what.

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June 26, 2011, 06:37:18 PM
 #3

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June 26, 2011, 06:38:04 PM
 #4

Do you realize that difficulty is a direct function of hashing power? If hasing power decreases dificulty decreases as well.

Mining will be a very low yielding business at the end. Its too easy to get in, so obviously competition is will be fierce.
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June 26, 2011, 06:41:54 PM
 #5

Difficulty   1379223
Estimated   1425754 in 1670 blks

It looks like that difficulty is leveling off , at least for now. Unless BTC price goes anywhere above $30 I'm thinking we won't be seeing new 30-70% increases.
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June 26, 2011, 06:42:57 PM
 #6

These conditions have happened in the past. The next difficulty increase looks negligible, and prices will probably recover when mt gox starts trading again and this is behind us. Or not. One way or another, an equilibrium will be reached. It won't just collapse.

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June 26, 2011, 06:50:33 PM
 #7

this is miner's paradise right now. they are going to make 2.6 million coins in one year alone.
of course that doesnt say how much profit an individual miner makes, but there is no chance the network will suffer a lack of miners unless the BTC crashes to less than 0.1$, which is still $260.000 for mining infrastructure.

start worrying when the rate of money creation levels off and they have to cover their costs by transaciton fees noone wants to pay.
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June 26, 2011, 06:52:12 PM
 #8

I don't see why your focal point is on the productivity of miners.

It doesn't matter how many miners are mining, as long as there are still miners. BTC are being generated at the same rate no matter what.

BTCs may generate at the same rate but, as it takes more and more to generate them it is not worth it to mine.  Miners cashing out is the problem.  The more miners decide, I'm done, the more pressure on BTC.  
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June 26, 2011, 06:59:16 PM
 #9

I don't see why your focal point is on the productivity of miners.

It doesn't matter how many miners are mining, as long as there are still miners. BTC are being generated at the same rate no matter what.

BTCs may generate at the same rate but, as it takes more and more to generate them it is not worth it to mine.  Miners cashing out is the problem.  The more miners decide, I'm done, the more pressure on BTC.  

So prices are temporarily depressed as miners cash out? No big deal. Who cares. Buy them while they're cheap.

And also, I think a lot of miners may quit mining, but keep the bitcoins for a better future price. Just because they stop mining doesn't mean that they will cash out.

Take me, for example. I've mined and bought. If things don't improve price wise, but the difficulty keeps going up, it'll probably be about a month, maybe two before I stop mining because it is too much trouble for the price. But there is no way I'm selling my hard earned bitcoins. I'm holding those for the long, long ride.

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June 26, 2011, 07:01:26 PM
 #10

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Is it just my browser that has spell check? LOL...on a side note...if it is built to the site why does the word Bitcoin trigger a misspell.  BTW...its collapse and miners don't trigger it...panic sellers do (combined with a bunch of traders speculating on low prices)...there is a very clear line at $17 and $20 the problem is a bunch of small sells in the $15 range keeping the price where it is...if everyone sold at $17+ it would take about 15 minutes to get up to that price...then a few more hours to get up to $20 (just a guess based on volume...obviously I am speculating).  I think the shift is coming and it will be positive...maybe I am being optimistic...playing the game is fun though.
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June 26, 2011, 07:04:26 PM
 #11

How much more can difficulty scale?  I mean, there are only so many ati-gpu's in existence and AMD can only manufacture new ones so fast.  Of course, there is more capacity in the system.  A lot more.  But could the growth of BTC outpace the capacity for mining?  If so, we could actually see a short boom, before a new wave of cards comes off the AMD production line, dedicated ASICS, etc.  So there is actually a possibility that difficulty increases level off for a reason totally unrelated to falling profitability.
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June 26, 2011, 07:06:59 PM
 #12

well I agree to a point its going to be slim pickens for a while with our mega miners going but with current difficulty it is taking out allot of the 1sy  and 2sy miners cause of the time and cost to make 1 btc and at their current value it will drive other miners away witch helps us stay at difficulty for a while longer.  but it does drive them to maybe buy the current surplus of coins to have few just in case of the big price jumps.
 I am now getting to a point not sure if I wanna bring more people in to mine investment wise i currently have 12 6970s pulling over 5300 mhash and i am looking at bringing on another 4000+ mhash  with another investor but not sure of the stability of the btc market If i want to have that fully crash again and try to just fyi only $900 income for 5300 at current difficulty and btc value.
SO i am am strongly thinking it over I can add more systems make more money but for how long.

I would be about 15 ghash if i bring in two more investors that are interested but I dont know if i want to.
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June 26, 2011, 07:36:52 PM
 #13

I see same threads with different titles all the time. Almost every one of them is full of misinformation, but I guess that's what you get when community grows at this rate.


Whoever has their hardware paid off can still profitably add more power as long as they are keeping the right ratio between paid off hardware vs new. Please stop this ASICS nonsense and also government conspiracies. Whole bitcoin idea is still in its infancy and anything goes at this stage.  If gov wanted to do anything they could easy throw $10mill at this and really build ASICS and take over the network  then just collapse it into the ground and keep it there. It would cost them nothing compared to the cash they burning on a daily basis for a lot worse bullshit.

We will mine for a long while using GPU and network will keep on growing with minor stalls like so many are predicting for the next difficulty increase which might only be 20%. LOL. People don't realize that even 2% increase compounded over a year will get us soon into lala land and we will be making coins at par with electricity costs, but network will just keep on growing. Noone ever said mining will be always profitable and with almost every new difficulty increase ratio between risk and reward might grow for a very long time before we get to see any real fruits from this whole project.

Until then keep your tin foil hats in the closet and enjoy life.
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June 26, 2011, 10:30:25 PM
 #14

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Is it just my browser that has spell check? LOL...on a side note...if it is built to the site why does the word Bitcoin trigger a misspell.  BTW...its collapse and miners don't trigger it...panic sellers do (combined with a bunch of traders speculating on low prices)...there is a very clear line at $17 and $20 the problem is a bunch of small sells in the $15 range keeping the price where it is...if everyone sold at $17+ it would take about 15 minutes to get up to that price...then a few more hours to get up to $20 (just a guess based on volume...obviously I am speculating).  I think the shift is coming and it will be positive...maybe I am being optimistic...playing the game is fun though.

OT: You really shouldn't rely on spell-checking... Sad
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June 26, 2011, 11:30:20 PM
 #15

Man, back to the furture was a great movie! Loved it!

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June 26, 2011, 11:40:02 PM
 #16

the system will still be secure but what hes talking about is adoption.. small time miners quitting are also quitting bitcoins, since they have no reasonable way of achieving them anymore.. the exchanges are a nightmare and require long delays.  

I deposited a small amoutn of $$ 3 weeks ago with the purpose of purchasing bitcoins, and to this day i have been unable to do so.. dwolla registration delays, mt gox wire xfer problems, then the mt gox crash, now the account verification nightmare.  The only reason i have bitcoins is due to mining, period.

miners are actually the best hope of people actually using bitcoins for a bitcoin economy like the gold miners during the gold rush bought levi's, mining equipment, etc.. with their mined gold.

I dont think its a huge issue.. whats going on here is just growing pains, plain and simple... as time goes on and the marketplace becomes more mature all these problems will be solved as long as gavin keeps plugging away at the fundmanental problems of bitcoin (the transaction fees, the everexpanding block chain, legal issues)

I'm a die-hard bitcoiner.. most people i was involved with on this thing have quietly given up.. most of the people i was selling mining gear to saw the gox debacle and the difficulty increase and just quietly backed out of the deals... this is just too much hassle for most people, "the silent majority"

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June 27, 2011, 12:02:57 AM
 #17

For the nth time, miners have to look beyond the difficulty increases to the price increases which will come.  I charted this as a price over difficulty ratio (see link in my sig).

If you don't think the price will increase then sell your coins and sell your rigs.  If you think the price will increase then keep mining but for goodness sake, hold onto your coin.

Mining/trading is a speculative business, not a business of consistent returns.

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June 27, 2011, 12:52:56 AM
 #18

this is just too much hassle for most people, "the silent majority"

Nailed it....HASSLE

I hate FRNs, but carrying around some in my pocket is not much hassle.
Carrying around a roll of silver coins is a bit inconvenient, but is still less hassle than BitC.

Bitcoin is good for transfers over huge distances without involving asshole banks credit card companies and the like, that its only saving grace. With the volitility that grace is also eroded because prices cant be pegged, so what have you left?, a speculative commodity with decreasing trade volume.
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June 27, 2011, 12:56:16 AM
 #19

Bitcoin is good for transfers over huge distances without involving asshole banks credit card companies and the like, that its only saving grace. With the volitility that grace is also eroded because prices cant be pegged, so what have you left?, a speculative commodity with decreasing increasing trade volume.

Fixed that for for you.

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June 27, 2011, 01:06:53 AM
 #20

Calypso.

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