NOTICE: WARNING to NEW Customers of BUTTERFLY LABS INC (BFL)

[ripple]

** Warning to New customers of Butterfly Labs Inc (BFL) **

"Any pre-orders placed now for any of Butterfly Lab’s units are not expected to ship until early 2014."

The above warning is from an article of June 5th on Butterfly Labs by Bitcoin commentator, Phil, in Mining News of the leading Bitcoin website, the Genesis Block.

This warning is intended for new customers thinking of placing an order in the near future with butterfly labs Inc (BFL) for mining equipment. It is not intended to be of concern to existing customers with pre-orders, and also it relates to ASIC mining equipment only as opposed to ASIC chips for whic BFL may have a different promised delivery schedule.

Butterfly Labs claims they have shipped all Jalapeno 5 GH/s ASIC bitcoin miners ordered through July 3rd, 2012 have been shipped. ASIC miners are customized hardware used for bitcoin mining. Although Butterfly labs was one of the first companies to take pre-orders for ASIC hardware, Avalon and ASICMiner have been shipping for several months now.

Butterfly Labs has been plagued with power issues for months, perpetually telling miners they are two weeks away from delivery. They missed their power target, forcing them to forfeit 1,000 bitcoins to charity after a failed wager. The size of these 5 GH/s miners is over twice as big as originally forecast to accommodate the redesigned boards.

There is no word yet on expected deliveries of their 30 GH/s, 60 GH/s or 1,500 GH/s miners shipping yet. These units are expected to have similar size issues as the 5 GH/s miners and there are rumors that Butterfly Labs will ship multiple units to customers in order to achieve the expected hashing rate. Certainly, after a year of waiting, most customers will be happy to just start mining. Any pre-orders placed now for any of Butterfly Lab’s units are not expected to ship until early 2014.

New customers for BFL rigs should be aware that Butterfly Labs have a history of long delayed shipment orders and may wish to further inform themselves about the risks they face if they were to place an order with BFL.

It is likely that by early 2014 the existing ASIC product line will be redundant. The reason is that the difficulty levels will be so high by this time that it is extremely unlikely that you will be able to cover the costs of your investment. Because new orders may not be delivered until 2014 the only way that it could be profitable ordering a unit from BFL today is if your expectation was that Bitcoin prices were going to skyrocket, in which case you should consider the alternative investment choice which is a direct investment in Bitcoins themselves.

The product pages of the BFL website are fraudulent in that they state information which the directors of butterfly labs knowingly are aware cannot be met. Their product pages state:

"Pre-order Terms: Bitforce SC (ASIC) products are shipped according to placement in the order queue, and delivery may take 2 months or more after order. All sales are final."

The directors of BFL may argue if taken to court that the words "or more" allow them to make deliveries as they wish.  If BFL were taken to court they would lose the argument and a judge would likely decree that they have broken their terms of contract as they have surpassed the expected delivery date and therefore ordered to give a refund and any costs to a customer. In most cases this becomes expensive for small orders other than those living in or nearby the state of Kansas who could take BFL to the Small Claims Court in Kansas City. For large orders where the amount exceeds USD 20,000 it may be cost effective for a court case in a regular court.

Normally a safe course of action would be to use PayPal or a credit card as these institutions generally will refund customers in case of delayed delivery, however because the delay is so long it will be way past the 45 day limit for PayPal and a six-month limit on credit cards. If your credit company will cover purchases for a year then definitely make use of that form of payment.

On the positive side BFL presently is refunding customers who wish to have their money returned. This is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The reason is quite simple and that is because BFL are taking in tens of millions of dollars in pre-order money which they receive interest-free. They are using part of this pre-order money to buy stock and equipment but the balance they are not using it simply sitting earning high rates of interest to cover future projects. So for them to refund portion of the tens of millions of dollars is not too much of an issue. At present BFL has delivered a certain portion of customers orders or given away free samples in order to obtain goodwill from the press. The early adopters on the forum including some moderators are likely to receive their orders quite soon and may therefore be unlikely to understand the full implication for new customers, although it is hoped they will still be motivated to help everyone including new persons making decisions about Butterfly Labs mining equipment.

The current state of orders can be seen a very helpful website: http://bfl.ptz.ro/

You can check how far BFL is with deliveries if you wish to place a gamble on purchase of equipment from them. Pre-orders started June 2012. At the time of writing only orders to 3rd July 2012 have so far have been shipped.  

There is a current argument on the Bitcoin Forum as to whether BFL should receive a SCAM tag or not. According to the balance of moderators BFL is not a scam and therefore does not get a scam tag, while many people who ordered these almost a year ago believe that they should be given this tag to warn others. BFL conduct business which is borderline illegal as they knowingly mislead customers.  However as for practical purposes this is not proved illegal until a court order is made against them, moderators are therefore erring on the side of caution. Perhaps one should consider that BFL is engaged in sharp practices and is showing an extreme disregard for business ethics. Even the if they don't get a "scam" or "warning" tag, at least newbies should get a warning about them as I hope this posting will serve.
 
The FAQ pages of the BFL website give out vague and obtuse information about delivery:

"Q: Where am I in line and when will my order ship?
A: We currently do not have the ability to easily disclose the number of orders we currently have. Shipping of new units is expected to begin soon. It is unknown at this time when we will complete the shipping of our pre-orders. Even though we should start shipping soon, orders placed now will be shipped at a later time. Our orders date back to June, 2012. All of those orders and those placed since then will be shipped before new orders."

http://www.butterflylabs.com/faq/

To assist new customers, an explanation of difficulty levels may be useful.  The Bitcoin system is based on mathematics and is designed to spread out the production of Bitcoins until 2040. Every 2016 blocks that are mined lead to an change in difficulty levels so that roughly each two weeks there is a new difficulty level.

Unlike the calculators used by the BFL and others which use only one level of difficulty the reality is that they increase dramatically throughout the year. A lot of people have been fooled by this and thought that they were on their way to retirement just by purchasing an order of mining equipment.

Wikipedia explains this stating difficulty is the measure of how difficult it is to find a new block compared to the easiest it can ever be. It is recalculated every 2016 blocks to a value such that the previous 2016 blocks would have been generated in exactly two weeks had everyone been mining at this difficulty. This will yield, on average, one block every ten minutes. As more miners join, the rate of block creation will go up. As the rate of block generation goes up, the difficulty rises to compensate which will push the rate of block creation back down.
 
Here are difficulty levels for the past four months:

Date          Increase %   Difficulty level    

05-Feb   10.33%   3,651,012
18-Feb   11.47%   4,367,876
01-Mar   19.63%   4,847,647
14-Mar   10.98%   6,695,826
24-Mar   38.13%   7,673,000
05-Apr   14.59%   8,974,296
17-Apr   12.28%   10,076,293
30-Apr   12.28%   11,187,257
12-May   11.03%   11,187,257
25-May   8.64%   12,153,412
05-Jun   28.41%   15,605,633

Shown graphically over the last twelve months (courtesy of bitcoin.sipa.be):

As you can see they have been increasing at different rates and frequencies but importantly they are not negative or close to zero.

If we are predicting future difficulty levels we have to take into account both the technology of mining equipment and also Bitcoin prices. There is a very close correlation between difficulty levels and the Bitcoin prices because as Bitcoin prices increase people around the world become interested to mine with graphics cards that they may already have in their computer. The Chinese now account for the greatest increase in Bitcoin users during the last month and there is a propensity for this to continue for some time. In addition to people using graphics cards to mine there are now various companies that are producing specific computer chips for mining use only called ASICs, which operate at about ten times the speed of fast graphic cards.

At present there are various companies producing ASIC chips.  Because of the limited shelf life of equipment using ASIC chips, the companies are now selling chips direct to wholesalers and the lead time is about 100 days. BFL have  a short time ago announced that they will also be selling chips directly to customers and their promised lead time is 100 days.  As BFL is known to make promises they cannot keep it is unlikely that the hundred days will be kept by BFL, however companies like Avalon have proved that they keep to their schedules and so the market will soon be flooded with new mining equipment using these new ASIC chips.

The last difficulty level showed a 28.4% jump in difficulty. If difficulty levels were to continue at an 15% increase each two weeks thereafter the expected future difficulty levels would look as follows:

date     change     difficulty
----------------------------------
05-Jun   28.41%   15,605,633
16-Jun   15.00%   17,946,478
27-Jun   15.00%   20,638,450
08-Jul    15.00%   23,734,217
19-Jul    15.00%   27,294,350
30-Jul    15.00%   31,388,502
10-Aug   15.00%   36,096,777
21-Aug   15.00%   41,511,294
01-Sep    15.00%   47,737,988
12-Sep   15.00%   54,898,686
23-Sep   15.00%   63,133,489
04-Oct   15.00%   72,603,513
15-Oct   15.00%   83,494,040
26-Oct   15.00%   96,018,146
06-Nov   15.00%   110,420,867
17-Nov   15.00%   126,983,997
28-Nov   15.00%   146,031,597
09-Dec   15.00%   167,936,337
20-Dec   15.00%   193,126,787
31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

As an example using updated mining data with a Bitcoin price of $125 and the above difficulty levels a BFL Jalapeno rig (5GH/s) customer may break even if received by Mid-Oct.

Here are the same figures using a difficulty level increase of only 10%:

05-Jun   28.41%   15,605,633
16-Jun   10.00%   17,166,196
27-Jun   10.00%   18,882,816
08-Jul    10.00%   20,771,098
19-Jul    10.00%   22,848,207
30-Jul    10.00%   25,133,028
10-Aug   10.00%   27,646,331
21-Aug   10.00%   30,410,964
01-Sep   10.00%   33,452,060
12-Sep   10.00%   36,797,266
23-Sep   10.00%   40,476,993
04-Oct    10.00%   44,524,692
15-Oct   10.00%   48,977,161
26-Oct   10.00%   53,874,878
06-Nov   10.00%   59,262,365
17-Nov   10.00%   65,188,602
28-Nov   10.00%   71,707,462
09-Dec   10.00%   78,878,208
20-Dec   10.00%   86,766,029
31-Dec   10.00%   95,442,632

This shows the risk involved in ordering BFL equipment today. if you think that Bitcoin prices will skyrocket or that for some reason difficulty levels will continue at a low rate of say 10% then you should have no problem if you order equipment from BFL. At a Bitcoin price of $125 and and 10% increase rate of difficulty the breakeven point for BFL equipment is around Mid-Jan 2014.

You can make your own data and see on the many mining calculation websites what you would then for each period. Just don't forget to tap in the increasing difficulty for each two weeks of the time period your calculation.

The reason there is much aggravation amongst early adopters that placed orders for BFL equipment in 2012 is that a 5 GH/s machine would make around $2,000 profit, and a 50 GH/s machine around $20,000 profit, with Bitcoin prices at $120 if started today and mined 24/7 to end 2014, and a hell of a lot more had units shipped when promised.

New customers could be better off to wait and see whether BFL will ever become up-to-date with the deliveries of outstanding orders. If they do a new customers can make more sensible decisions based on the current difficulty levels and this would be an excellent and ideal situation.

New customers can also wait and see if later in the year faster and cheaper chips will be made by other companies like Avalon and ASICMiner in which case they may be able to purchase elsewhere products that consume less energy and will hash away faster at mining Bitcoins.
 
There is an ancient maxim "Caveat Emptor" meaning "Let the buyer beware". This certainly applies to BFL.  

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[SlyFoxy12]

I think there is something about BFL in how they targeted smaller mining operations, encouraging people with 5Ghz units which cost every little where as most other minors seem to target selling very expensive but still powerful devices. I don't believe BFL is a scam but I do think they're just that bit too dodgy to touch unless you like to live dangerously.

Personally I think the market value of bitcoins are getting somewhat unstable right now, better to hold out, there will be newer generations of miner either way, it's just keeping an eye out on which maker to put your money on when the time comes.

[os2sam]

** Warning to New customers of Butterfly Labs Inc (BFL) **

"Any pre-orders placed now for any of Butterfly Lab’s units are not expected to ship until early 2014."

The above warning is from an article of June 5th on Butterfly Labs by Bitcoin commentator, Phil, in Mining News of the leading Bitcoin website, the Genesis Block.

Any pre-orders placed now for any of Butterfly Lab’s units are not expected to ship until early 2014.

This guy saying so constitutes objective truth?

Sounds more like opinion to me.  I guess we'll see if this common taters opinion is accurate or not.

All I see is the robot from Lost in Space swinging his arms yelling Warning Warning BFL is Shipping.

[SLok]

31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

[btceic]

You might want to consider his username too, ripple, seriously sounds like FUD to me.

[computerparts]

I don't think any new customers are going to take there time to read that absurdly long post 

[Xian01]

You might want to consider his username too, ripple, seriously sounds like FUD to me.

 Was just going to comment on that... Hard to take anyone with a name like "Ripple" seriously, when it comes to BTC-related matters 

[ebildude123]

Good warning.
I preordered in March, hopefully it delivers while ROI is still very much possible 

[rimbit]

You might want to consider his username too, ripple, seriously sounds like FUD to me.

 Was just going to comment on that... Hard to take anyone with a name like "Ripple" seriously, when it comes to BTC-related matters 

Yeah, I would have to agree with you on that. I have already encountered some sourpuss who has to much time on his hands and decides to talk rubbish. Much like my little sister who Gossips about things... 

[ripple]

With maths like yours I can understand how BFL manages to sell so many pre-orders.  

If you received delivery in January 2014 could not possibly make a profit on your investment of $2,499 as at 222,095,805 difficulty you will be earning around only $15.10 per day, reducing to $13.10 11th Jan 2014 , $9.99 at 2nd Feb 2014, and $4.90 at 29th March 2014, $2.50 at 23rd May and will have future increases in difficulty to overcome over the next 29 weeks.

I hope you have an earlier pre-order, so at least you can make some reasonable money.

31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

[ripple]

You are lucky to have got in before the herd and should hopefully make a very good return.

Good warning.
I preordered in March, hopefully it delivers while ROI is still very much possible  

[ripple]

Actually customers like to read reviews for products they are thinking about purchasing. If you are forking out your hard earned dollars the greater the depth of information the more useful the review. Go to Amazon and see which reviews get the best ratings.   

I don't think any new customers are going to take there time to read that absurdly long post 

[SLok]

With maths like yours I can understand how BFL manages to sell so many pre-orders.  

If you received delivery in January 2014 could not possibly make a profit on your investment of $2,499 as at 220,095,805 difficulty you will be earning around only $15.10 per day, reducing to $13.10 11th Jan 2014 , $9.99 at 2nd Feb 2014, and $4.90 at 29th March 2014, $2.50 at 23rd May and will have future increases in difficulty to overcome over the next 29 weeks.

I hope you have an earlier pre-order, so at least you can make some reasonable money.

31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator
Fill in 222 for the 15 mil. difficulty, like you suggested in your op, for December 2013, what does it give? If you think I will take your math over that, think again.
In you don't think a unit ordered today will arrive before 2014, don't order. I will as soon as the coins from my units roll in. And frankly, any place in the order queue not taken before me = better.

[ripple]

The calculator you use only has one level of difficulty. As mentioned in the OP, "Unlike the calculators used by the BFL and others which use only one level of difficulty the reality is that they increase dramatically throughout the year. A lot of people have been fooled by this and thought that they were on their way to retirement just by purchasing an order of mining equipment."

One has to take into account increasing difficulty each 2016 blocks roughly each two weeks to calculate the break even point as well as factoring in pool and power costs. What appears profitable at the beginning will change completely after each jump, in part demonstrated by the recent 28.4% jump in the last difficulty level.

Some mining calculators have started to include a factor for estimated difficulty level changes which is a great help to mining investors.

I hope your units arrive soon.

With maths like yours I can understand how BFL manages to sell so many pre-orders.  

If you received delivery in January 2014 could not possibly make a profit on your investment of $2,499 as at 220,095,805 difficulty you will be earning around only $15.10 per day, reducing to $13.10 11th Jan 2014 , $9.99 at 2nd Feb 2014, and $4.90 at 29th March 2014, $2.50 at 23rd May and will have future increases in difficulty to overcome over the next 29 weeks.

I hope you have an earlier pre-order, so at least you can make some reasonable money.

31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator
Fill in 222 for the 15 mil. difficulty, like you suggested in your op, for December 2013, what does it give? If you think I will take your math over that, think again.
In you don't think a unit ordered today will arrive before 2014, don't order. I will as soon as the coins from my units roll in. And frankly, any place in the order queue not taken before me = better.

[SLok]

The calculator you use only has one level of difficulty. As mentioned in the OP, "Unlike the calculators used by the BFL and others which use only one level of difficulty the reality is that they increase dramatically throughout the year. A lot of people have been fooled by this and thought that they were on their way to retirement just by purchasing an order of mining equipment."

One has to take into account increasing difficulty each 2016 blocks roughly each two weeks to calculate the break even point as well as factoring in pool and power costs. What appears profitable at the beginning will change completely after each jump, in part demonstrated by the recent 28.4% jump in the last difficulty level.

Some mining calculators have started to include a factor for estimated difficulty level changes which is a great help to mining investors.

I hope your units arrive soon.

With maths like yours I can understand how BFL manages to sell so many pre-orders.  

If you received delivery in January 2014 could not possibly make a profit on your investment of $2,499 as at 220,095,805 difficulty you will be earning around only $15.10 per day, reducing to $13.10 11th Jan 2014 , $9.99 at 2nd Feb 2014, and $4.90 at 29th March 2014, $2.50 at 23rd May and will have future increases in difficulty to overcome over the next 29 weeks.

I hope you have an earlier pre-order, so at least you can make some reasonable money.

31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator
Fill in 222 for the 15 mil. difficulty, like you suggested in your op, for December 2013, what does it give? If you think I will take your math over that, think again.
In you don't think a unit ordered today will arrive before 2014, don't order. I will as soon as the coins from my units roll in. And frankly, any place in the order queue not taken before me = better.

What do you mean with "one level of difficulty", that it shows the current difficulty only? Did you replace the 15605632.6813 diff. on that calculator by diff. 222605632.6813, filled in the hash rate and clicked calculate? Don't you agree with it's outcome, for that diff.?? If one takes your lower December 2013 number,  95442632 diff., it would be $1037 and $865 /month for the 60GH/s and 50GH/s models, btw.

[BitcoinBarrel]

Maybe if everyone asked for a refund the difficulty would go down?

[SGExodus]

31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

Your math is flawed.  

Assuming the difficult continue to grow at 7.5% per week, your earning from 60GH will be:

$450 - 1st month
$315 - 2nd month
$220 - 3rd month
$154 - 4th month
$107 - 5th month
$75 - 6th month

Summing that up, and it will take 6 months or 24 weeks to earn back your $1299.    For the 50g/h at $2499, you will never make back your investment (and if you think bitcoin price will shoot up to $1000/btc.. you might as well spend the 2499 and buy the BTC today).

That's assuming late shipping of Dec 2013.  

Obviously, if you can receive the machine earlier, there will be some decent profit for both machine.

[ripple]

Unfortunately the "BitForce 25 GH/s SC" from Butterfly Labs priced at $1,249 plus shipping only hashes at 25 GH/s, not 60 GH/s.

BFL products can be viewed on following pages:

https://products.butterflylabs.com/

New customers thinking of buying mining rigs from BFL are warned that orders placed today are unlikely to obtain their Return on Investment.

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

[rimbit]

You would think that BFL would know that and captilise on the BTC system now and get better sales.

Leaving it too long, it may see some issues going to court as many customers have useless machines (There will come a time when those machines will be handy again)

[SLok]

31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

Your math is flawed.  

Assuming the difficult continue to grow at 7.5% per week, your earning from 60GH will be:

$450 - 1st month
$315 - 2nd month
$220 - 3rd month
$154 - 4th month
$107 - 5th month
$75 - 6th month

Summing that up, and it will take 6 months or 24 weeks to earn back your $1299.    For the 50g/h at $2499, you will never make back your investment (and if you think bitcoin price will shoot up to $1000/btc.. you might as well spend the 2499 and buy the BTC today).

That's assuming late shipping of Dec 2013.  

Obviously, if you can receive the machine earlier, there will be some decent profit for both machine.

Can you add the expected difficulty to the $xxx-xmonth list? like
$450 - 1st month at diff. =
$315 - 2nd month etc.
$220 - 3rd month
$154 - 4th month
$107 - 5th month
$75 - 6th month

Unfortunately the "BitForce 25 GH/s SC" from Butterfly Labs priced at $1,249 plus shipping only hashes at 25 GH/s, not 60 GH/s.

BFL products can be viewed on following pages:

https://products.butterflylabs.com/

New customers thinking of buying mining rigs from BFL are warned that orders placed today are unlikely to obtain their Return on Investment.

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

What has "Unfortunately the "BitForce 25 GH/s SC" from Butterfly Labs priced at $1,249 plus shipping only hashes at 25 GH/s, not 60 GH/s." to do with it?
I'm was giving you the calculations for the 50GH/s and 60GH/s Single, not the LITTLE Single, at your own assumed 222mill. diff. for 12-2013, see what you quoted....
Besides that, the 25GH/s has the same payback time as the 50GH/s since it is half the price of a 50GH/s unit, so it would still be ~29 weeks, at your assumed 222mill. diff.

edit: for clearance: the 60GH/s units were always priced $1299, as shown in my calculations: a 60GH/s single priced $1299. The 50GH/s units were introduced with an overall price change, at $2499, with the Little Single going from 30GH/s @ $699 to 25GH/s @ $1249.

[ripple]

The purpose of the OP was to provide a warning to New customers thinking of buying mining rings from BFL that orders placed today are unlikely to obtain a satisfactory return on investment, and to give them some background so that they can better understand their expected return and make a more informed decision.

What is relevant to New customers is whether they should part with their money today or not. 

At present Butterfly Labs are offering 5 GH/s, 25 GH/s and 50 GH/s units, at $274, $1,249, and $2,499 respectively plus shipping.

New customers must face the prospect of any receiving products ordered today in January 2014. By this time it is unlikely that they will receive the expected return on their investment over the life of the product.

As stated in the OP persons existing already in the BFL pre-order list, like you and I, and many others may make a lot of money.

The reason there is much aggravation amongst early adopters that placed orders for BFL equipment in 2012 that a 5 GH/s machine would make around $2,000 profit and a 50 GH/s machine around $20,000 profit with Bitcoin prices at $120 if started today and mined 24/7 to end 2014, and a hell of a lot more had units shipped when promised.

New customers could be better off to wait and see whether BFL will ever become up-to-date with the deliveries of outstanding orders. If they do a new customers can make more sensible decisions based on the current difficulty levels and this would be an excellent and ideal situation.

Congratulations, you made a good original investment. I hope you receive your two units very soon so that you can immediately start mining and make hay while the sun shines.

As far as the viability of units ordered today and received in January 2014, here are the continuation of the difficulty levels at 15%:

2013
31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

2014
11-Jan   15.00%   255,410,176
22-Jan   15.00%   293,721,702
02-Feb   15.00%   337,779,958
13-Feb   15.00%   388,446,951
24-Feb   15.00%   446,713,994
07-Mar   15.00%   513,721,093
18-Mar   15.00%   590,779,257
29-Mar   15.00%   679,396,146
09-Apr   15.00%   781,305,568
20-Apr   15.00%   898,501,403
01-May   15.00%   1,033,276,613
12-May   15.00%   1,188,268,105
23-May   15.00%   1,366,508,321
03-Jun   15.00%   1,571,484,569
14-Jun   15.00%   1,807,207,255
25-Jun   15.00%   2,078,288,343
06-Jul    15.00%   2,390,031,595
17-Jul    15.00%   2,748,536,334
28-Jul    15.00%   3,160,816,784
08-Aug   15.00%   3,634,939,301

Unfortunately the "BitForce 25 GH/s SC" from Butterfly Labs priced at $1,249 plus shipping only hashes at 25 GH/s, not 60 GH/s.

BFL products can be viewed on following pages:

https://products.butterflylabs.com/

New customers thinking of buying mining rigs from BFL are warned that orders placed today are unlikely to obtain their Return on Investment.

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

What has "Unfortunately the "BitForce 25 GH/s SC" from Butterfly Labs priced at $1,249 plus shipping only hashes at 25 GH/s, not 60 GH/s." to do with it?
I'm was giving you the calculations for the 50GH/s and 60GH/s Single, not the LITTLE Single, at your own assumed 222mill. diff. for 12-2013, see what you quoted....
Besides that, the 25GH/s has the same payback time as the 50GH/s since it is half the price of a 50GH/s unit, so it would still be ~29 weeks, at your assumed 222mill. diff.
[/quote]

[SLok]

BFL states all pre-orders till now should be out before august-start September (90 days quoted). An assumption, I know, but your figures, whether it be delivery dates or difficulty figures, are all assumptions, with assumptions made on the outcome of assumptions.
Hence the over 100% difference it your 2 difficulty predictions for 12-2013.
By your same assumptions, any ASIC device that is not delivered within a couple of weeks is a waste of money. I've shown what the monthly revenue and "pay for itself" time for a unit with BFL's GH/s and price tag is, with the maximum difficulty you set for 12-2013, and if received in 12-2013. It looked good.

I can only conclude your whole warning is useless FUD.

[ripple]

As has been stated your maths is flawed.

31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

Your math is flawed.  

Assuming the difficult continue to grow at 7.5% per week, your earning from 60GH will be:

$450 - 1st month
$315 - 2nd month
$220 - 3rd month
$154 - 4th month
$107 - 5th month
$75 - 6th month

Summing that up, and it will take 6 months or 24 weeks to earn back your $1299.    For the 50g/h at $2499, you will never make back your investment (and if you think bitcoin price will shoot up to $1000/btc.. you might as well spend the 2499 and buy the BTC today).

That's assuming late shipping of Dec 2013.  

Obviously, if you can receive the machine earlier, there will be some decent profit for both machine.

[ripple]

The Genesis Block reports that 890 pre-orders have been successfully completed at KnCMiner at around 160 TH/s.

Jupiter hashes at 350 GH/s, shipment is also in September 2013, with a $6,995 USD price tag.
Saturn hashes at 175 GH/s, shipment is in September 2013, with a $3,795 USD price tag.

The units are built on a 28nm processes which has greater efficient power efficiency, as well as mining density, allowing users more hashing power.

The Jupiter cost ratio is $19.98 per Gh/s, and the Saturn $21.68 per Gh/s.

"Each order consists of at least one Saturn or Jupiter device, however it is likely that multiple devices were purchased in the same order. Even if these were all the smaller devices, this would result in over 160 TH/s of miners joining the network in September. This figure could easily be doubled to account for the faster miner, as well as multiple devices in the same order. Given the rapid increase in network speed over the last few months, for KnCMiner customers September can’t come fast enough."

With all this new hashing power coming online from Avalon, ASICminer and KnCMiner there is more likelihood of hash levels and therefore difficulty levels having continuous high increase levels from August and September 2013.

Given the advice from Genesis Block that "Pre-orders placed now for any of Butterfly Lab’s units are not expected to ship until early 2014", new customers thinking of placing with Butterfly Labs (BFL) should shop around for more reliable suppliers that keep to promised deadlines. Alternatively wait for Butterfly Labs to clear the majority of their one year old pre-order queue before ordering.

A bird in the hand is worth two butterflies in the bush!

The 50 GH/s unit from BFL has a cost ratio of $49.98 per GH/s and the 25 GH/s unit $49.96 per GH/s which are now both looking rather inadequate to new customers especially given the expected delivery in early 2014.

Last month ASICMiner begun production of 10,000 USB miners running at 330 MH/s. These units have been selling in batches of 300, and while priced at an expensive 1.99 BTC each, it shows the competition at all target users is increasing.

[zvs]

I don't think any new customers are going to take there time to read that absurdly long post  

me neither

i read the whole thing, but i was never planning on preordering from BFL, anyway.

these other people that are preordering at the moment, it probably flies right over their head

and difficulty levels going up 15% seems very conservative to me

[ripple]

For those that just like a quick twitter type message they can read the first two sentences only and should get the message, while those that prefer comprehensive information can read the whole post if interested.

The message was intended only for new customers who might not be aware of the long delivery delays by BFL and can find all the relevant information in one place to allow them to make a better informed investment decision.

I'm happy you read the whole post. Yes, I agree with you that 15% is conservative for average future increases in difficulty levels.  What is your estimate of an average increase level?  At 18% the difficulty get levels pretty high pretty quickly and some people are astounded by the high expected difficulty levels of 362,275,970 by end Dec 2013.

At 18% increase in difficulty levels, the time of delivery becomes critical factor in obtaining a suitable return on investment. For example new orders from KnCMiner will arrive sooner and have a two and half times better performance than those from BFL.

i read the whole thing, but i was never planning on preordering from BFL, anyway.

these other people that are preordering at the moment, it probably flies right over their head

and difficulty levels going up 15% seems very conservative to me

[jayeeyee]

In the end, this is all speculation and rough estimates.  No one can say for certain how the future economy for Bitcoin will turn out.  No one can say with the utmost confidence exactly how high difficulty will soar or how low/high the value of BTC will turn out to be in the future.  Regardless of who you buy your ASIC from, they all provide risk.  KnC is fairly new and who knows what may or may not happen (once again - speculation).  ASICMiner and Blades isn't as cost-effective as the current big boys.  I've actually had enough sanity to read through 2 pages and I've come to the conclusion that the OP post does more harm than good when it comes to pre-orders of ANY ASIC investment.  Although the harm does seem to be targeted @ BFL.  Who's to say other ASIC suppliers won't run into a bottleneck?  You also have to factor in there is a wait-time/pre-order for other ASIC devices as well.. such as Avalon & KnC.  If I last recall, there are still some batch 1 Avalon orders that hasn't been shipped yet and about only 5% of Avalon orders left the building (I might be wrong on the % as I'm quoting it from somewhere else)

All in all.. all investment has risk.  Happy mining, while you still can.

[zvs]

For those that just like a quick twitter type message they can read the first two sentences only and should get the message, while those that prefer comprehensive information can read the whole post if interested.

The message was intended only for new customers who might not be aware of the long delivery delays by BFL and can find all the relevant information in one place to allow them to make a better informed investment decision.

I'm happy you read the whole post. Yes, I agree with you that 15% is conservative for average future increases in difficulty levels.  What is your estimate of an average increase level?  At 18% the difficulty get levels pretty high pretty quickly and some people are astounded by the high expected difficulty levels of 362,275,970 by end Dec 2013.

At 18% increase in difficulty levels, the time of delivery becomes critical factor in obtaining a suitable return on investment. For example new orders from KnCMiner will arrive sooner and have a two and half times better performance than those from BFL.

i read the whole thing, but i was never planning on preordering from BFL, anyway.

these other people that are preordering at the moment, it probably flies right over their head

and difficulty levels going up 15% seems very conservative to me

It'll go up 20%, 25% or more for the next few cycles.  Then eventually the hobbyists will stop spending all their excess cash and the difficulty level won't increase as much.

all the prices for ASICs and such I have seen lately are ludicrous

but I applaud the business savvy of those folks that have sold/are selling their avalon 2's atm

[inevertell]

I enjoy how utterly correct the OP was here. Even underestimated the climb in difficulty.

AND STILL there were people here laughing him off ... ahh bitcoin community you never cease to make ME laugh out loud.

[BobMarley]

I doubt they will ever ship

[inevertell]

Whether they ship or not is no longer relevant.

They will not mine more than what you have paid.

The OP was saying this a long time ago and people were basically laughing him off.

Yet his figures were even underestimated and difficulty has risen much higher, and these machines are basically useless for profiting anything.

Unless of course the price of bitcoin skyrockets but back then, as with now, and probably forevermore (unless you are willing to risk pre-funding a company to make these types of units and HOPE things work out, like it seems KNC buyers are going to win a little if you are first day delivery), you are better off buying coin and sitting on it or investing with it.

Mining can feel just so nice to be a part of in a way, and when it was profitable it made a lot of sense, i'd love to see miners priced at estimated ROI + 2% when for sale retail(in-store) that way you can make back nearly what you put in, and if there is any increase in exchange rate, even tiny.. you profit.

I think it would give a better incentive to keep people mining. Basically the network has been expanding exponentially on people LOOSING money when they didn't understand the market before purchasing, a few are profiting large because of a form of favouritism or elitism ("we were here first so we should get the only good deal" or "well be have the most fiat so we should have the most bitcoin")

But with so many pawns out there, the network will continue to grow on the backs of suckers, or on the opposite end, on the exponentially growing backs of giant corporations who are able to invest heavily in their own hardware for MAX profits. Enjoy the present moment 

I doubt they will ever ship

[GigaWave]

I enjoy how utterly correct the OP was here. Even underestimated the climb in difficulty.

AND STILL there were people here laughing him off ... ahh bitcoin community you never cease to make ME laugh out loud.

Plenty of other people were also saying the same thing (myself included, I am even quite surprised by how low my own estimates were.(I even overestimated to account for a lack of information) Product of the lack of information by ASIC mfgs.) before the OP.  It seems people have still been buying like crazy. Hopefully this has stopped at this point as the ASIC Tsunami is within viewing range, the true size has yet to be revealed though.  And back to BFL in specific, Looks like they missed their "Ship the back log by end of September" by about 6 months....huh who would have thought that BFL would lie again?  ...I mean have a delay....At least they stopped with the "Two weeks" nonsense..now it's just infinite.

[Bicknellski]

The purpose of the OP was to provide a warning to New customers thinking of buying mining rings from BFL that orders placed today are unlikely to obtain a satisfactory return on investment, and to give them some background so that they can better understand their expected return and make a more informed decision.

What is relevant to New customers is whether they should part with their money today or not. 

At present Butterfly Labs are offering 5 GH/s, 25 GH/s and 50 GH/s units, at $274, $1,249, and $2,499 respectively plus shipping.

New customers must face the prospect of any receiving products ordered today in January 2014. By this time it is unlikely that they will receive the expected return on their investment over the life of the product.

As stated in the OP persons existing already in the BFL pre-order list, like you and I, and many others may make a lot of money.

The reason there is much aggravation amongst early adopters that placed orders for BFL equipment in 2012 that a 5 GH/s machine would make around $2,000 profit and a 50 GH/s machine around $20,000 profit with Bitcoin prices at $120 if started today and mined 24/7 to end 2014, and a hell of a lot more had units shipped when promised.

New customers could be better off to wait and see whether BFL will ever become up-to-date with the deliveries of outstanding orders. If they do a new customers can make more sensible decisions based on the current difficulty levels and this would be an excellent and ideal situation.

Congratulations, you made a good original investment. I hope you receive your two units very soon so that you can immediately start mining and make hay while the sun shines.

As far as the viability of units ordered today and received in January 2014, here are the continuation of the difficulty levels at 15%:

2013
31-Dec   15.00%   222,095,805

2014
11-Jan   15.00%   255,410,176
22-Jan   15.00%   293,721,702
02-Feb   15.00%   337,779,958
13-Feb   15.00%   388,446,951
24-Feb   15.00%   446,713,994
07-Mar   15.00%   513,721,093
18-Mar   15.00%   590,779,257
29-Mar   15.00%   679,396,146
09-Apr   15.00%   781,305,568
20-Apr   15.00%   898,501,403
01-May   15.00%   1,033,276,613
12-May   15.00%   1,188,268,105
23-May   15.00%   1,366,508,321
03-Jun   15.00%   1,571,484,569
14-Jun   15.00%   1,807,207,255
25-Jun   15.00%   2,078,288,343
06-Jul    15.00%   2,390,031,595
17-Jul    15.00%   2,748,536,334
28-Jul    15.00%   3,160,816,784
08-Aug   15.00%   3,634,939,301

Unfortunately the "BitForce 25 GH/s SC" from Butterfly Labs priced at $1,249 plus shipping only hashes at 25 GH/s, not 60 GH/s.

BFL products can be viewed on following pages:

https://products.butterflylabs.com/

New customers thinking of buying mining rigs from BFL are warned that orders placed today are unlikely to obtain their Return on Investment.

At that diff. and current $/btc, a 60GH/s single priced $1299 will make $450/month, pays itself back in 13 weeks,
At that diff. and current $/btc, a 50GH/s single priced $2499 will make $373/month, pays itself back in 29 weeks,
good enough for me.

What has "Unfortunately the "BitForce 25 GH/s SC" from Butterfly Labs priced at $1,249 plus shipping only hashes at 25 GH/s, not 60 GH/s." to do with it?
I'm was giving you the calculations for the 50GH/s and 60GH/s Single, not the LITTLE Single, at your own assumed 222mill. diff. for 12-2013, see what you quoted....
Besides that, the 25GH/s has the same payback time as the 50GH/s since it is half the price of a 50GH/s unit, so it would still be ~29 weeks, at your assumed 222mill. diff.

[/quote]

Update with the Monarch and current product under-performance and failures?

[sid7039]

BFL:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bfl

[bitcoin_UK]

Certainly take this with a pinch of salt. I've received many shipments from Batterfly labs and have been as happy as I could be, granted there have been endless delays but what company can say they have always shipped on time. It's just the name of the game. Bitcoin ASICS are still generally new to us despite the evolution of them going so fast. It must be hard for these businesses to keep up, every time they ship, people no longer want that product due to the difficulty increase.

[freebit13]

Certainly take this with a pinch of salt. I've received many shipments from Batterfly labs and have been as happy as I could be, granted there have been endless delays but what company can say they have always shipped on time. It's just the name of the game. Bitcoin ASICS are still generally new to us despite the evolution of them going so fast. It must be hard for these businesses to keep up, every time they ship, people no longer want that product due to the difficulty increase.

Bitmain perhaps?

[h3rlihy]

I have personally not had any trouble with BFL. I ordered two jalapenos real late but got them pretty much immediately. They were still no good to me though but I was able to ebay them for a profit. Still waiting on a 300 gh/s monarch though but got it during the sale so not expecting it until 2017 when it will be used to keep my room warm.